Joint Session 36 Advances in Data Assimilation, Verification, and Probabilistic Forecasting of Aviation Weather Hazards

Wednesday, 15 January 2020: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Stephanie Avey, AWC, Kansas City, MO
Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Through collaborative efforts, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of weather phenomena of interest to aviation is constantly evolving.   Improvements to data assimilation and verification techniques has allowed for continued advancement of predicting clouds, visibility, turbulence, icing, and convection: all hazards that pose a threat to aviation.  Probabilistic forecasting is also being explored as a means of predicting risks and communicating uncertainty associated with these hazards and their impact on aviation. This session will address recent progress and accomplishments across these areas.

8:30 AM
1955–2019: How NWP Has Evolved to Improve Safety and Efficiency for Aviation (Invited Presentation)
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown
9:00 AM
9:15 AM
Use of Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation for Initializing the Deterministic HRRR and Use of HRRRE Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts to Provide Probabilistic Aviation Hazard Guidance
Steve Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, G. Ge, T. T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, M. Hu, E. James, J. S. Kenyon, I. Jankov, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, and S. G. Benjamin
9:30 AM
9:45 AM
The Analysis of Short-Term Operational Wind Forecasts and Implications for Aircraft Operations in Terminal Areas
Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Dupree, R. F. Ferris, D. D. Moradi, and D. Clark
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