Session 12B Advances in Probabilistic Forecasting

Thursday, 16 January 2020: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Christopher McCray, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC

10:30 AM
10:45 AM
11:00 AM
Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance at the Storm Prediction Center
David Harrison, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

11:15 AM
Optimizing a Sensitivity-based Ensemble Subsetting Technique for Convective-scale Forecasts
Austin A Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

11:30 AM
The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for Nordic Weather Conditions: Recent Results in Research and Applications
Jørn Kristiansen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and U. Andrae, I. L. Frogner, M. Ø. Køltzow, A. M. Olsen, M. Partio, I. A. Seierstad, A. T. Singleton, and O. Vignes

11:45 AM
Spread-Skill Relationship in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Leo Separovic, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra, R. McTaggart-Cowan, M. Charron, D. Xingxiu, A. Patoine, and S. Corvec

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