Session 12B Advances in Probabilistic Forecasting

Thursday, 16 January 2020: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair:
Christopher McCray, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC

Papers:
10:30 AM
12B.1
The Weather Prediction Center: A Bridge between Ensemble Information and Decision-Makers
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
12B.2
Evaluation of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast Using Machine Learning
Shawn Handler, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
12B.3
Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance at the Storm Prediction Center
David Harrison, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (900.6 kB)

11:15 AM
12B.4
Optimizing a Sensitivity-Based Ensemble Subsetting Technique for Convective-Scale Forecasts
Austin A. Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
12B.5
The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for Nordic Weather Conditions: Recent Results in Research and Applications
Jørn Kristiansen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and U. Andrae, I. L. Frogner, M. Ø. Køltzow, A. M. Olsen, M. Partio, I. A. Seierstad, A. T. Singleton, and O. Vignes
Recorded Presentation

12B.6
Spread-Skill Relationship in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

11:45 AM
12B.6A
Assessing the Robustness of Microphysical Process Representation in an Adaptive Habit Model by Means of Stochastic Parameterizations
Lauriana C. Gaudet, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Sulia
Recorded Presentation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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