Session 14A Evaluating Numerical Weather Forecasts in the Tropics

Thursday, 16 January 2020: 3:30 PM-5:00 PM
258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company, Andover, MA and Maria Gehne, ESRL, Physical Sciences Division R/PSD1, Boulder, CO

We welcome abstracts on methods for evaluating weather forecasts in the Tropics. The quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the Tropics is important not only because of the local impact of tropical convection, but also because improved forecasts of convective activity in the Tropics can positively impact forecast skill in Mid-latitudes several days later. Differences in the dynamics between Mid-latitudes and Tropics suggest that different metrics may be necessary to evaluate numerical weather forecasts in those regions. Standard metrics such as QPF and anomaly correlations may need to be augmented with process-based metrics and diagnostics taking into account known model biases/ difficulties in the Tropics in addition to current knowledge of tropical dynamics. Contributions proposing new methods for evaluating NWP forecasts in the Tropics, for example how to assess the models' forecast skill of phenomena with time scales longer than a few days, or diagnostics based on energy budgets, are particularly encouraged.

Expected topics include diagnostics of tropical convection and dynamical contributions to tropical convection, metrics describing tropical - extratropical interactions, and comparison of NWP model performance in the Tropics.

3:30 PM
Can Limited Area Mesoscale Models Forecast Tropical Cyclones?
Poushali Ghosh, Millersville University of Pennsylvania, Millersville, PA; and M. Fiorino and R. A. Anthes

3:45 PM
Tropical Dynamics Diagnostics for NWP
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and G. Kiladis

4:00 PM
4:15 PM
Performance of the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the Northern South America Region and its Impact on the Overall Skill of an Operational Regional Weather Forecast Strategy Using WRF
Gisel Guzmán, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz, D. C. Cruz, L. A. Gómez, and M. Zapata

4:30 PM
Evaluating TIGGE rainfall forecasts for tropical eastern Africa
Emily Riddle, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Stellingwerf, T. M. Hopson, J. Knievel, B. Brown, and M. Gebremichael

4:45 PM
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics
Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and T. Gneiting

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