Session 10B Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty and Best Use of Forecast Information - II

Wednesday, 15 January 2020: 3:00 PM-4:00 PM
258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Marina Astitha, Univ. of Connecticut, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT; Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD and Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE

The importance of severe weather events is underscored by the severe effects in human lives, infrastructure and the environment. Severe storms cause disruption in services nation-wide provided by the Coast Guard, Port and transportation authorities, and electric power utilities, among others; for example, weather-induced blackouts of electricity distribution grids have caused over $1.5 trillion of damage in the US since the 1980s according to the 2018 report “Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters” by the U.S. Department of Commerce NOAA/NCDC. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Forecast uncertainty estimation and communication of severe weather predictions remain a challenge and often overshadow the successes and improvements in weather forecasting over the last decade. There is a need to connect state-of-the-science severe weather forecast methods with communication of the forecast and its uncertainties to inform, educate and protect the public as well as critical infrastructure. This session is dedicated to the prediction of severe weather and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on: forecasting extreme weather events; understanding sources of forecast uncertainty and methods for improvement; and addressing the communication of the forecast between scientists, stakeholders and the general public by defining the best use of forecast information.

3:00 PM
Dynamics and Predictability of Sting-Jet Storm "Egon" over Continental Europe: Impact of Surface Properties and Model Resolution
Lea Eisenstein, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon and P. Knippertz

3:30 PM
A New Ensemble Simulation Analysis Considering Water Vapor Update History for Line-Shaped Rainband Heavy Rainfall Forecasting
Nana Kuroda, Graduate school of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto city, Japan; and K. Yamaguchi and E. Nakakita

3:45 PM
Vorticity power law in a simulated tornadic supercell
Huaqing Cai, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and L. Bai and Z. Meng

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