Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center

It has been well documented that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made significant improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting during the past few decades. However, during much of that time NHC’s TC intensity forecast errors had changed little. Recently, however, there has been a notable increase in TC intensity forecast skill and decrease in error. This study documents these trends and discusses the advancements in TC intensity guidance that has led to the improvements in NHC’s predictions in the Atlantic basin. A brief outlook of future expectations is also provided.