Session 13C Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Techniques and Applications

Thursday, 16 January 2020: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Christopher McCray, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC and Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Eastern Region - Scientific Services Division, Bohemia, NY

New approaches are emerging to develop probabilistic forecast information to help convey forecast uncertainty for decision making.  This session will explore techniques and applications of NWP, particularly ensembles and model blends, to produce probabilistic forecasts of rainfall, snowfall, and ice accumulations. The session will also address methods to assess the skill and utility of probabilistic precipitation forecast information.

1:30 PM
Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa
Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, T. Gneiting, A. H. Fink, and A. Schlueter
1:45 PM
2:15 PM
Applications of the Geometry-Sensitive Ensemble Mean for Lake-Effect Snowbands and Other Weather Phenomena
Jonathan J. Seibert, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush, J. Li, Z. Zhang, and F. Zhang
2:30 PM
Heavy Rainfall Forecasts from Two Very Different Ensembles
Trevor Alcott, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, I. Jankov, and D. C. Dowell
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner