Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction with an Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Model (Invited Presentation)

Increasingly, high resolution observations and coupled model experiments with eddy-resolving oceans indicate that western boundary currents (WBCs) are regions of strong ocean-atmosphere interactions that are critical components of the climatic mean state and variability. The high SSTs and strong SST gradients couple with the atmosphere to pump moisture into the marine boundary layer, accelerate winds, sharpen SST fronts, and introduce significant seasonal to decadal climate variability that affects the frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g., heat waves, cold spells, droughts, floods, extreme winds) at remote locations. This talk describes a set in retrospective seasonal to decadal prediction, predictability and simulation experiments using an ocean eddy resolving version of CESM. We described how the mesoscale features in the ocean feedback onto representation of the large-scale mean state, the simulation of seasonal to decadal variability, the local imprint of large scale-climatic features (associated extreme events) and retrospective forecast skill. Similar numerical experiments with an eddy parameterized version are used for comparison.