33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Isla R. Simpson , NCAR ; Bin Guan , JPL
Reviewers: Xichen Li , Institute of Atmospheric Physics ; Emily Becker , NOAA

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1A
African Climate Change and Variability, Part 1
Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Michela Biasutti, LDEO
8:45 AM
1A.2
Observed Relationship between the Turkana Low-level Jet and Boreal Summer Convection
Edward K. Vizy, 1 University Station; C1160, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

9:00 AM
1A.3
The Turkana Low-Level Jet - Links to Rainfall and Representation in Climate Models
James A. King, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and R. Washington, S. Engelstaedter, and C. Munday

9:30 AM
1A.5
Using Seasonal Rainfall Clusters to Explain the Interannual Variability of the Rain Belt over the Greater Horn of Africa
Larisa S. Seregina, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, A. H. Fink, C. C. Funk, and J. G. Pinto

9:45 AM
Senator Whitehouse


Session 1B
Land Use and Land Cover Change – Interactions with Weather and Climate
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Marcus Williams, USDA; Bradford Johnson, TriVector Services, Inc.
8:45 AM
1B.2
Land Use and Land Cover Changes Strongly Modulate Warm-Season Precipitation over the Central United States
Maoyi Huang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and A. Devanand, D. M. Lawrence, C. M. Zarzycki, Z. Feng, and P. Lawrence

9:00 AM
1B.3
Impacts of Changing Land Use and Land Cover on Regional Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa
Timothy Glotfelty, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC; and D. Ramirez, A. Ghilardi, J. H. Bowden, and J. J. West

9:30 AM
1B.5
Afforestation versus Reforestation in New Zealand: Effects on Regional Climate
M James Salinger, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; and J. D. Fuentes, M. E. Mann, and Z. Moon

9:45 AM
1B.6
Tradeoffs Between Land-Management and Regional Climate in the Brazilian Cerrado
Stephanie Spera, University of Richmond, University of Richmond, VA; and J. M. Winter and T. Partridge


Session 1C
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction, Part 1
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ.
8:30 AM
1C.1
8:45 AM
1C.2
Gfdl's SPEAR Seasonal Predictions: Initialization and Bias Correction with Coupled Data Assimilation
Feiyu Lu, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, M. Harrison, T. L. Delworth, and W. F. Cooke

9:00 AM
1C.3
Towards Western U.S. Seasonal Snowpack Prediction (Invited Presentation)
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and X. Yang, S. Malyshev, T. L. Delworth, and W. F. Cooke

9:30 AM
1C.4
Persistent and Reemergent Sea Surface Temperatures: A Recipe for Better Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Matthew B. Switanek, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. Scheuerer, J. Barsugli, and T. M. Hamill

9:45 AM
1C.5
Skillful Empirical Prediction of High-Impact Temperature Deviations
Patrick T. Brown, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and M. Evans, A. Mahesh, H. Gupta, and K. caldeira

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Panel Discussion 2
Avoiding Day Zero: Governance of Urban Water Resources and Services
Location: 210AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum Sessions; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 15th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Moderator: Amanda H. Lynch, Monash Univ.
Panelists: Maria Carmen Lemos, University of Michigan; Gillian Maree, Gauteng City-Region Observatory; Celeste Saulo, Servicio Meteorologico Nacional; Anji Seth, Univ. of Connecticut; Coleen Vogel, University of the Witwatersrand; Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University

Session 2A
African Climate Change and Variability, Part 2
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Kerry Cook, University of Texas, Austin; Edward K. Vizy, 1 University Station; C1160
10:30 AM
2A.1
A Systematic Comparison of Tropical Waves over Western and Eastern Equatorial Africa
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. Schlueter, R. van der Linden, and J. G. Pinto

10:45 AM
2A.2
The Influence of Kelvin Waves during Dry and Wet African rainfall years
Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and C. J. Schreck III

11:00 AM
2A.3
Attribution of Sahel Rainfall Variability: What Can Flawed Models Teach Us?
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and K. Marvel, R. Herman, A. Giannini, and Y. Kushnir

11:15 AM
2A.4
11:30 AM
2A.5
Characterizing 15 years of Saharan Air Layer Properties in North Africa
Stephen D. Nicholls, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and K. I. Mohr, J. J. Shi, and S. A. Braun


Session 2B
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction, Part 2
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
2B.1
Initialized Seasonal to Interannual Forecasting without Initalization
Matthew Newman, CIRES - CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and H. Ding, Y. Wang, and M. A. Alexander

10:45 AM
2B.2
Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction Research Framework with NCAR’s CESM1 and CESM2
Jadwiga Richter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Yeager, J. Caron, W. M. Kim, A. S. Glanville, K. Lindsay, K. Oleson, J. Edwards, J. Tribbia, H. Teng, J. Berner, S. Bates, N. Rosenbloom, G. Strand, J. Olson, G. Danabasoglu, I. R. Simpson, B. Medeiros, M. C. Long, G. A. Meehl, and J. F. Lamarque

11:30 AM
2B.4
Assessment of CanESM5 Decadal Hindcasts: Modes of Variability and Their Teleconnections
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada; and W. S. Lee, V. Kharin, W. Merryfield, and G. J. Boer

11:45 AM
2B.5
Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps
Qinxue Gu, Penn State University, State College, PA; and M. M. Gervais


Session 2C
Western North American Climate: Diagnosis, Prediction, and Impacts at Subseasonal to Multi-Decadal Scales
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Emily Becker, NOAA
10:30 AM
2C.1
Changes in Extreme Integrated Water Vapor Transport on the US West Coast in NA-CORDEX, and Relationship to Mountain and Inland Precipitation
Mimi Hughes, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. Swales, J. D. Scott, M. Alexander, K. Mahoney, and R. McCrary

10:45 AM
2C.2
Projections in Many Directions: Extracting Meaningful Guidance for Water Resources Planning in the Western United States from the NA-CORDEX GCM-RCM Ensemble
Kelly Mahoney, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Scott, M. Alexander, M. Hughes, D. Swales, and R. McCrary

11:00 AM
2C.3
The Modulation of Natural Gas Through Winter Climate and Cyclone Variability
Jacob Stuivenvolt Allen, Utah State University, Logan, UT; Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

11:15 AM
2C.4
Influences and Impacts of Variability and Recent Collapse in Seasonal Bering Sea Ice Coverage
Richard Thoman Jr., University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK

11:30 AM
2C.5
Large-scale Drivers of Connected Atmospheric Rivers along the US West Coast
Meredith A. Fish, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and J. Done, A. M. Wilson, and F. M. Ralph

11:45 AM
2C.6

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Session 7
The need for water driving the science of rain and snow: Past, present, and future (Centennial)
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
2:30 PM
J7.3
Weather modification research to enhance water supplies in the Western U.S (Invited Presentation)
Dave Matthews, CEO Hydrometdss, LLC, Silverthorne, CO; and D. Reynolds and G. E. Klazura

2:45 PM
Discussion/Q&A

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 3A
Climate Dynamics - General
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Young-Oh Kwon, WHOI
2:00 PM
3A.1
2:15 PM
3A.2
What Can Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Reveal about Climate Sensitivity?
Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ

2:45 PM
3A.4
3:00 PM
3A.5
Communication Breakdown: The Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections
Brandon O. Wolding, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and E. Maloney, S. Henderson, and M. Branson

3:15 PM
3A.6
The Role of Tropical Diabatic Heating for the Indian Monsoon
Erik T. Swenson, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus and D. Das

3:30 PM
3A.7
Climate Variability and Change in South America
Carolina Vera, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

3:45 PM
3A.8
Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Arsenals by Pakistan and India Portends Regional and Global Catastrophes
Owen Brian Toon, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO; and C. G. Bardeen, A. Robock, L. Xia, H. Kristensen, M. McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, C. Harrison, N. S. Lovenduski, and R. Turco


Session 3B
Dynamics of jet streams and storm tracks in past, present and future climates
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine; Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2:00 PM
3B.1
How will atmospheric persistent anomalies change in a warming climate?
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. C. Michaelis, W. A. Robinson, and R. miller

2:15 PM
3B.2
The Bivariate Sensitivity of Persistent Anomalies to Environmental Temperature and Baroclinicity
Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. Miller, W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann

2:30 PM
3B.3
Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: A Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change
Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rice University, 6100 Main St., Houston, TX; and E. Nabizadeh, D. Yang, and E. A. Barnes

2:45 PM
3B.4
Increased Shear in the North Atlantic Upper-Level Jet Stream over the Past Four Decades
Paul D. Williams, University of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. H. Lee and T. H. A. Frame

3:00 PM
3B.5
Atmospheric Blocking as an Evolution of Rossby Wave Packets
Lei Wang, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

3:15 PM
3B.6
A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and G. Masukwedza, P. Hitchcock, and I. R. Simpson

3:30 PM
3B.7
Impacts of the Planetary-Scale Eddies on the Midwinter Suppression in North Pacific Storm Track Intensity
Mingyu Park, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. Lee

3:45 PM
3B.8
An Investigation of the Effect of Ocean Mesoscale Variability on the Dynamics of the North Pacific Jet Stream and Storm Track
Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. Forinash, G. Gyarmati, Y. Jia, P. Chang, and R. Saravanan


Session 3C
The use of large ensembles in understanding climate variability and change
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Karen McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles; Justin Mankin, Dartmouth College
2:00 PM
3C.1
The Use of Large Ensembles in Climate-Model Consistency Testing (Invited Presentation)
Dorit Hammerling, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and A. Baker

2:45 PM
3C.3
Uncertainty Introduced by Internal Climate Variability in the Projected Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Crop Yields
Budong Qian, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and Q. Jing, W. Smith, B. Grant, A. J. Cannon, and X. Zhang

3:00 PM
3C.4
Planning for a Changing Mountain Hydroclimate: Using Large Ensembles to Assess Future Risks (Invited Presentation)
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, H. G. Chan, W. F. Cooke, P. Ginoux, S. Malyshev, S. Pascale, D. B. Kirschbaum, T. A. Stanley, and I. Velicogna

3:15 PM
3C.5
The Seasonality of Surface Temperature Warming: A Robust Comparison of Models and Observations.
Alexa Zabaske, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Nielsen-Gammon

3:30 PM
3C.6
Assessing Climate Variability and Change in an Ensemble Simulation of Climate Impacts on U.S. Air Quality and Public Health (Invited Presentation)
Fernando Garcia Menendez, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. East, R. K. Saari, and E. Monier

3:45 PM
3C.7
On the Use of Large Ensembles for Studying Climate and Air Quality
Christopher W Callahan, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and J. S. Mankin

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Panel Discussion 3
The need for water driving the science of rain and snow: Past, present, and future Panel (Centennial)
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions )
Cochairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
Panelist: Roy Rasmussen, NCAR

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Poster Session
African Climate Change and Variability
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Kerry Cook, University of Texas, Austin; Edward K. Vizy, 1 University Station; C1160
Anthropogenic Influences on the African Easterly Jet-African Easterly Wave System
Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

Evolution of the Vertical Structure of the Saharan Air Layer during the Land-Ocean Transition Using MERRA-2 Global Analysesand Nu-WRF Model Simulations
Jainn J. Shi, NASA GSFC, Morgan State Univ./GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. braun, S. D. Nicholls, and K. I. Mohr

Verifying Shifts in the Equatorial African Precipitation Cycle Using a New Seasonal Rainfall Model
Molly M. Wieringa, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and S. T. Amdur IV

African Easterly Wave Characteristics: Climate Variability and Trends
Yuan-Ming Cheng, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

Forecasting Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics in Rwanda Using NextGen Python-Based Climate Predictability Tool
Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and M. Mbati, N. Acharya, A. Gahigi, and Á. Muñoz

Historical and Projected Trends in Near-Surface Temperature Indices for 22 Locations in South Africa
Thabo Elias Makgoale, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa; and A. C. Kruger, H. Rautenbach, S. Mbatha, and S. Ngwenya

Increasing Manmade Air Pollution Reduces Rainfall in Southern West Africa
Gregor Pante, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, and A. Kniffka

Influence of Indian Ocean SSTs on the East African Short Rains
Weiran Liu, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy


Poster Session
Avoiding Day Zero: Governance of Urban Water Resources and Services
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Shape of a Water Crisis: Practitioner Perspectives on Drought and Urban Water in South Africa
Coleen Vogel, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, RI, South Africa; and A. H. Lynch, G. Maree, Z. Bischoff-Mattson, D. Olivier, and D. Terblanche


Poster Session
Climate Dynamics General
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Application of Weighted Multi-Model Ensemble Means, a Method to Manage Uncertainties between Climate Models
Hamidreza Ahmadzadeh Araji, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia; and A. Wayayok, A. Massah Bavani, and A. Fikri Abdullah

Steppe Ecosystem and Climatic Variability (Western Algeria)
Bensmira Zaza, University of Mascara, Mascara, Algeria

The Meridional Structure of the Effects of Global Warming on Atmospheric Radiative Cooling and Precipitation
Charlotte Connolly, Ohio University, Springfield, OH; and A. Naegele and D. A. Randall

A Study of Convergence Zones in South America: Definition and Variability in Present and Future Climate
Gabriel M P Perez, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale and N. P. Klingaman

Isolating Zonal Influences on Global Climate Feedbacks Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions
Jacob C. Muller, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, J. Lee, and L. W. Chao

Investigating Australian Monsoon Sensitivity to Large Volcanic Eruptions in the Last Millennium Through Model-Proxy Synthesis
Cali M. Pfleger, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and S. Murty, F. Horton, B. Monteleone, L. Giosan, G. Gaetani, R. Denniston, and C. C. Ummenhofer

Recent Changes in the South America Low-level Jet
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Strong Winds in Korea during Recent 30 Years (1988-2017)
Baek-Jo Kim, KMA, Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. U. Kim and J. Shim

A Comparison of the Westerly Wind Bursts between the Positive Phase and the Negative Phase of the PDO
Yunhao Shi, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and J. Su


Poster Session
Land Use and Land Cover Change – Interactions with Weather and Climate
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Basin Scale Atmospheric Moisture Recycling Should be Accounted for in Land-Use Change Studies
Obbe Tuinenburg, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands; and A. Staal

Simulating the Effects of Agricultural Land Use Change on the Climate of the Northern North American Great Plains
Gabriel Bromley, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, S. Albeke, and P. Stoy

Impacts of Future Land-Use Land-Cover on Boundary Layer Development in the North-Central United States
Paul X. Flanagan, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and R. Mahmood, T. Sohl, M. D. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, and M. J. Hayes


Poster Session
The Dynamics of Jet Streams and Storm Tracks in Past, Present and Future Climates
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
The Role of Mean State Bias in a Climate Model on Atmospheric Blocking Frequency
Edward Kleiner, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang, L. Wang, and P. W. Chan

Factors That Influence North Pacific Tropopause Folds and Their Changes in a Future Warmer Climate
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Albers, M. L. Breeden, J. Benjamin, and A. Ortiz

Testing Mechanisms of Jet Shift Using Linear Response Function of an Idealized Dry GCM
Pak-Wah Chan, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and P. Hassanzadeh and Z. Kuang


Poster Session
The Use of Large Ensembles in Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Scaling Relationships between Extreme Precipitation and Local Temperature: Contrasting for Binning Scaling and Trend Scaling
Qiaohong Sun, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. Li

Perturbed Parameter Ensembles of Idealized Experiments to Identify Plausible and Diverse Variants of a Model for Climate Change Projections
Ambarish V Karmalkar, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA; and D. Sexton, J. Murphy, and B. B. B. Booth

Summer Season Lengthening and Extreme Heat Wave Expansions over the Northern Hemisphere Assessed Using Multi-AGCM Large-ensemble Simulations
Bo-Joung Park, Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. K. Min

Volcanic Eruption Signals in Large Ensembles
Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ

Assessing the Frequency, Duration and Intensity of Heatwaves from a Dynamically Downscaled Initial-Conditions Large Ensemble
Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada; Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. Jalbert, A. Mailhot, E. Pechenova, L. Huettenhofer, R. Ludwig, and A. Frigon


Poster Session
Western North American Climate: Diagnosis, Prediction and Impacts at Subseasonal to Multi-Decadal Scales
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Characteristics of Different Atmospheric River Types and Their Links with Extreme Precipitation over Western North America
Yaheng Tan, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang and F. W. Zwiers

Large Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events along the Coast of Washington State
Allison Collow, USRA, Columbia, MD; and H. Mersiovsky, M. Bosilovich, and R. Koster

Relating Zonal Variability in Sea Surface Temperature to the Structure of North Pacific Anticyclones
Jamin K. Rader, SOARS, Boulder, CO; and A. Walker, K. B. Karnauskas, and L. Zhang

Predictability of Two Types of El Niño Assessed by ECMWF System 5 and its Impacts on Western North American Climate
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Strada Costiera, 11- l-34151, Trieste, Italy; Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Diminished flows in southwestern snow-fed rivers: Assessing and normalizing climate change projections for use in heavily managed hydrologic systems
David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and N. R. Bjarke and N. T. Townsend

Large-scale Circulation Context for Atmospheric Rivers: Influence of the North Pacific Oscillation / West Pacific Teleconnection
Justin D. Hicks, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam, A. Ruiz-Barradas, and B. Guan

Changing North American Circulation Pattern in the Last 100 Years.
Jin-Ho Yoon, Gwagnju Institue of Science and Technology, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. Y. Wang and J. H. Jeong

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 4A
Arctic-mid-latitude Linkages Part 1
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine
8:30 AM
4A.1
Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Synoptic Time Scale and Related Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Walsh, S. M. Szymborski, and M. Peng

8:45 AM
4A.2
The Driving of Intraseasonal Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Barents and Kara Seas
Zhina Jiang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and S. Feldstein and S. Lee

9:00 AM
4A.3
An Observational Estimate of the Direct Atmospheric Response to the Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Claude Frankignoul, SORBONNE UNIVERSITE, Paris, France; and A. Simon, G. Gastineau, and Y. O. Kwon

9:15 AM
4A.4
Detection of Signal in the Large-Scale Circulation Response to Arctic Sea-Ice Decline
Zachary M. Labe, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings and G. Magnusdottir

9:30 AM
4A.5
Examining the Forecast Skill of the Synoptic-Scale Flow Associated with Arctic Cyclones
Daniel Keyser, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat and L. F. Bosart

9:45 AM
4A.6
Quantification of Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Hindcast Simulations
Yu-Chiao Liang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and Y. O. Kwon, C. Frankignoul, G. Danabasoglu, S. Yeager, A. Cherchi, Y. Gao, G. Gastineau, R. Ghosh, J. Mecking, D. Peano, L. Suo, and T. Tian


Session 4B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction and Impacts Part 1
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
8:45 AM
4B.2
Different Types of El Nino Transition Processes One Year after Its Occurrence
Sang Wook Yeh, Hanyang University, South Korea, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)

9:00 AM
4B.3
Why does the CP El Niño Less Frequently Change into La Niña than the EP El Niño?
Shan He, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. Y. Yu, S. Yang, and S. W. Fang

9:15 AM
4B.4
A Constraint of ENSO Complexity by Tropical Pacific Mean State
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA; and S. W. Fang

9:30 AM
4B.5
ENSO Asymmetry in Amplitude and Duration in a Linear Model with State Dependent Noise
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and D. J. Vimont, M. Newman, C. Penland, and J. D. Neelin

9:45 AM
4B.6
Enso Persistence Barrier and its Impact Factors as Revealed in Cmip5 Simulations
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Tian


Session 4C
Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction, Part 3
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Steve Yeager, NCAR
CoChair: Steve Yeager, NCAR
8:30 AM
4C.1
Decadal Predictability of Late Winter Precipitation in Western Europe through an Ocean-Jet Stream Connection
Isla R. Simpson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Yeager, K. McKinnon, and C. Deser

8:45 AM
4C.2
9:00 AM
4C.3
Decadal Prediction with an Ensemble of Ocean Analyses
Leon Hermanson, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, N. Dunstone, and R. Eade

9:15 AM
4C.4
9:30 AM
4C.5
Forecasting Implications of Abrupt North Atlantic Climate Changes
JAMES JOHNSTONE, Climate Forecasting Applications Network, Seattle, WA

9:45 AM
4C.6
Quality Assessment of Decadal Climate Predictions with EC-Earth
Simon Wild, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and R. Bilbao, Y. Ruprich-Robert, J. C. Acosta Navarro, A. E. Amaral Ramos, L. P. Caron, R. Cruz-García, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. G. Donat, P. Ortega, V. Sicardi, and E. Tourigny


Joint Session 10
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth system modeling, regional climate modeling, climate change, carbon cycle) Part I
Location: 201C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Robert Dickinson Symposium; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Leo Donner, Univ. of Michigan
Keynote: Gordon Bonan, NCAR
9:00 AM
J10.2
Changes in the Thermosphere/Ionosphere Over the Past Century: Results from Whole Atmosphere Model Simulations
Joseph M. McInerney, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. C. Solomon, L. Qian, H. L. Liu, and S. Nossal

9:15 AM
J10.3
The GeoCarb Mission
Berrien Moore III, National Weather Center/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Crowell

9:30 AM
J10.4
Extracting the Buoyancy-Driven Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 5A
Arctic-mid-latitude Linkages Part 2
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Brian Rose, University of Albany
10:30 AM
5A.1
The Role of a Tropopause Polar Vortex in the January 2019 Arctic Outbreak
Samuel P. Lillo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo, D. B. Parsons, and C. P. Riedel

10:45 AM
5A.2
Examining the Relationship Between Tropopause Polar Vorticies and Stratospheric Variability
Cameron R Paquette, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang

11:00 AM
5A.3
A Comparison of the Predictability of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclones
Peyton K. Capute, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

11:15 AM
5A.4
11:30 AM
5A.5
Relation Between Arctic Moisture Flux and Tropical Temperature Biases in CMIP5 Simulations and Its Fingerprint in RCP8.5 Projections
Sukyoung Lee, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and C. Woods and R. Caballero

11:45 AM
5A.6
Influence of Northward Heat Transport on Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble
Young-Oh Kwon, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and L. Fleming, R. Vargas-Martes, G. Gebbie, and H. Furey


Session 5B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction and Impacts Part 2
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen Baxter, NOAA CPC
10:30 AM
5B.1
The Randomness of Extreme El Niño Events
Sungduk Yu, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and A. Fedorov

10:45 AM
5B.2
Governing Processes of Extreme El Niño and Implications for Future Projections
Agus Santoso, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; and W. Cai and G. Wang

11:00 AM
5B.3
ENSO Precipitation Variations Using Passive Microwave and Radar Observations from TRMM and GPM
Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler

11:15 AM
5B.4
Climatology and Variability of Warm and Cold fronts over North America
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and R. A. Lagerquist and A. McGovern

11:30 AM
5B.5
On the Seasonality and Linearity of the El Nino Teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea Region
Yu Yeung Scott Yiu, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock


Session 5C
Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction, Part 4
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Steve Yeager, NCAR; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
5C.1
Reliability and Usability of Climate Predictions and Projections
Daniel J. Befort, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and C. H. O'Reilly, D. MacLeod, and A. Weisheimer

11:00 AM
5C.3
Exploring Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability of Climate Extremes by Combining High-Resolution Climate Modeling with Big Data Analytics (Invited Presentation)
Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction, College Station, TX; and P. Chang, S. Yeager, W. C. Hsu, G. Danabasoglu, L. Wu, and S. Zhang

11:30 AM
5C.4
Using the Ocean to Identify Forecasts of Opportunity for Decadal Prediction
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and J. Hurrell

11:45 AM
5C.5
Understanding the Role of Decadal Climate Prediction for Flood Risk and Water Resource Management
James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Das, H. Lazrus, R. E. Morss, A. Munévar, E. Towler, and M. Tye


Joint Session 16
AI and Climate: Impact and Opportunities
Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs: Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern Univ.; Karthik Kashinath, LBNL
10:30 AM
J16.1
Viewing Climate Signals through an AI Lens (Core Science Keynote)
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and I. Ebert-Uphoff, J. Hurrell, C. W. Anderson, and D. Anderson

11:00 AM
J16.2
Evaluation of Data-Driven Causality Discovery Methods among Dominant Climate Modes
Steve R Hussung, Indiana University, Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and S. Mahmud, A. Sampath, M. Wu, P. Guo, and J. Wang

11:15 AM
J16.3
Deep Learning Semantic Segmentation for Climate Change Precipitation Analysis
Andrew Lou, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and E. Chandran, M. Prabhat, J. Biard, K. Kunkel, M. F. Wehner, and K. Kashinath

11:30 AM
J16.4
11:45 AM
J16.5
Downscaling Climate Model Data for Energy and Crop Modelling Using Self-Organizing Maps
Andrew Polasky, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans and J. Fuentes

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 6A
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications, Part 1
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
1:30 PM
6A.1
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation for the Seven US National Climate Assessment Regions
Emily A. Slinskey, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; and P. Loikith, D. E. Waliser, and B. Guan

1:45 PM
6A.2
Atmospheric River Scale Captures Economic Flood Impacts
Thomas W. Corringham, SIO/UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, and C. Talbot

2:00 PM
6A.3
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers over the Northeast U.S.
Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and A. N. Kaminski, N. D. Metz, M. Duncan, K. Bachli, M. Ericksen, I. Glade, C. Roberts, and C. Evans

2:15 PM
6A.4
Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers
David A. Lavers, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and M. J. Rodwell, D. S. Richardson, A. Subramanian, F. M. Ralph, J. D. Doyle, C. Reynolds, R. Torn, V. Tallapragada, and F. Pappenberger


Session 6B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction and Impacts Part 3
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen Baxter, NOAA CPC
1:30 PM
6B.1
The Influence of Wintertime SST Variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO Diversity
Boniface Fosu, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. He and S. Y. Wang

1:45 PM
6B.2
Precursors of ENSO Diversity in the NCAR CESM2 Climate Model
Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO

2:00 PM
6B.3
Diversity of El Niño Events and Its Impact on East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation
Jianjun Xu, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China; and S. Yuan and H. Xu

2:15 PM
6B.4
The Longitude of Tropical Pacific Deep Convection: A Perspective on ENSO Diversity and Implications for Western US Hydroclimate
Christina M Patricola, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and I. N. Williams, J. P. O'Brien, M. D. Risser, A. M. Rhoades, T. O'Brien, P. Ullrich, D. Stone, and W. D. Collins


Joint Session 19
Understanding the Hazard of Heat Waves to Address the Risks to Human and Animal Health
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
Chairs: Kerry Cook, University of Texas, Austin; Wassila Thiaw, CPC/NOAA
1:30 PM
J19.1
Impact of Tropical Modes of Variability on Sahelian Heat Waves: A Case Study in April 2003
Kiswendsida H. Guigma, University of Sussex, BRIGHTON, United Kingdom; and F. Guichard, P. Peyrillé, M. C. Todd, J. Barbier, and Y. Wang

1:45 PM
J19.2
Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States
Natalie Thomas, USRA, Columbia, MD; NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Bosilovich, A. Collow, R. D. Koster, S. D. Schubert, A. Dezfuli, and S. Mahanama

2:00 PM
J19.3
2:15 PM
J19.4
The Hurricane Heat Trail Effect on Caribbean Heat Waves.
Theodore Allen, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Bridgetown, Barbados; and Z. Guido, P. A. M. Lazaro, M. Y. Lichtveld, S. J. Mason, and J. Henderson


Joint Session 21
Aerosol-climate interactions from regional to global scale Part I
Location: 208 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
CoChair: Yuan Wang, California Institute of Technology
1:45 PM
J21.2
Enhanced land–sea warming contrast elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world (Invited Presentation)
Robert J. Allen, Univ. of California, Riverside, CA; and T. Hassan, C. Randles, and H. Su

2:00 PM
J21.3
2:15 PM
J21.4
Significant impacts of African Wildfire aerosols on mid- and high- latitude climates in Northern Hemisphere
Huiping Yan, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang, Z. Zhu, J. Luo, Y. Qian, and Y. Jiang


Joint Session 22
Women in the Tropics
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chairs: Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ.; Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ.
Speaker: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President, Jenni Evans

1:30 PM
J22.1
1:45 PM
J22.2
Contributions of Women in the English-speaking Caribbean to Tropical Meteorology Operations, Education, Research, and Applications
Arlene G Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago; and K. A. Caesar, A. Sealy, R. Mahon, and T. S. Stephenson

2:00 PM
J22.3
Leaving the tropics to study the tropics
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 7A
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications, Part 2
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
3:00 PM
7A.1
Atmospheric River Influences on Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
Lexi Henny, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart

3:15 PM
7A.2
Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers in the Middle East
Elias Massoud, NASA JPL, Pasadena, CA; and T. Massoud and D. E. Waliser

3:30 PM
7A.3
Atmospheric Rivers and Cyclone Clustering from Reanalyses and High Resolution Model Simulations
Sergey Gulev, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russian Federation; and N. Tilinina, P. Verezemskaya, A. Gavrikov, and M. Krinitsky

3:45 PM
7A.4
Large-Scale Controls of Landfalling North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers across a CESM2 Hierarchy
James J. Benedict, Univ. of Miami, Fort Collins, CO; and A. Clement and B. Medeiros


Session 7B
Communicating climate change
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Markeya Thomas, Climate Nexus
3:00 PM
7B.1
Climate.Gov Social Media Engagement Strategy for Increasing Climate Communication and Dialogue
Tom E. Di Liberto, CollabraLink Inc, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Herring, R. Lindsey, and F. Niepold

3:15 PM
7B.2
How to Help Me Get Your Research Right
Kait Parker, The Weather Company, Brookhaven, GA

3:30 PM
7B.3
Investigating Connections Between Need for Cognitive Closure and Climate Change Concern
Margaret Orr, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. Grundstein and A. E. Stewart

3:45 PM
7B.4
Encouraging Planners and Decision Makers to Embrace Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections for Adaptation Planning
Derek H. Rosendahl, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. M. Wootten, R. A. McPherson, E. Kuster, E. Mullens, J. Blackband, and A. Bryan


Joint Session 23
Aerosol Approaches to Climate Engineering (e.g., results from climate modeling, using analogs such as volcanic eruptions and ship tracks, and development of technology to actually implement solar geoengineering)
Location: 201C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Robert Dickinson Symposium; the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ.
Keynote: Simone Tilmes, NCAR
3:00 PM
J23.1
3:30 PM
J23.2
The North Atlantic Climate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering
James Hurrell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. Sun and K. dagon

3:45 PM
J23.3
An Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Thinning through Improved Integration of Satellite Retrievals and Climate Modeling
Yuta Tomii, DRI, Reno, NV; and F. Hosseinpour, J. Mejia, and D. L. Mitchell


Joint Session 25
Women in the Tropics, Part 2
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chairs: Kelly Nunez Ocasio, Penn State University; Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President, Jenni Evans

3:00 PM
J25.1
The Availability and Reliability of Precipitation and Zonal Wind Estimates over Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

3:15 PM
J25.2
Multi-Scale Nature of Tropical Influence on Precipitation Variability in Southern South America
Carolina Vera, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

3:30 PM
J25.3
Women careers fostered by the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia – LBA
MARIA A. F. SILVA DIAS, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Barueri, Brazil

3:45 PM
J25.4
Projecting Regional Climate Change in the Tropics
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX


Joint Session 27
Aerosol-climate interactions from regional to global scale Part II
Location: 208 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Yuan Wang, California Institute of Technology; Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
3:15 PM
J27.2
Synergistic approach to estimate aerosol direct radiative forcing from active satellite observations
D. Henderson, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and T. S. L'Ecuyer, A. Matus, and T. Takemura

3:30 PM
J27.3
The Separate Influence of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases on Forced Changes in the Global Energy and Water Cycles
Damien Irving, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and J. Church, J. Zika, and S. Wijffels

3:45 PM
J27.4
Background Conditions Influence the Estimated Cloud Radiative Effects ofAnthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from Different Source Regions
Benjamin Grandey, Singapore-MIT Alliance of Research and Technology, Singapore, Singapore; and C. Wang

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Joint Poster Session 1
From Droughts to Deluges - Learning from Practitioners How to Value the Human Health and Societal Impacts of Hydrologic Disasters - Posters
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 25th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
Chairs: Hunter Jones, NOAA; Jesse Bell, University of Nebraska Medical Center; Amanda Sheffield, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Mike Hobbins, CIRES
Rainfall as a Driver of Waterborne Disease: Ecohydrological Perspectives
Andrea Rinaldo, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne (CH), Switzerland

Floods and Droughts Management: The Extreme Event and its Human and Physical Impacts.
Mohammed-Said Karrouk, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco


Joint Poster Session 2
Middle Atmosphere Symposium
Hosts: (Joint between the Middle Atmosphere One-Day Symposium; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Simulating Spring Final Warmings in Historical Runs of CMIP6 Models
Brent A. Mcdaniel, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, GA

Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Vortex Intensification Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center
Craig S. Long, NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. H. Butler and H. T. Lee

Using time series motifs to examine preconditioning of the stratospheric polar vortex
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

An equivalent latitude formulation of the stratospheric northern annular mode
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

Different predictability and surface impacts of two recent split stratospheric vortex events
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Z. D. Lawrence, S. H. Lee, S. P. Lillo, and C. S. Long

Slow Eastward-Propagating Planetary Waves Prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
C. Todd Rhodes, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, SC; and V. Limpasuvan and Y. J. Orsolini

Trends and Variability in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Over the Last 100+ Years
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Jarrett and C. Narotsky

Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
Rei Ueyama, NASA, Moffett Field, CA; and E. J. Jensen, L. Pfister, M. Krämer, and M. R. Schoeberl

Modeling Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Water Vapor from the Monsoons
Mark R. Schoeberl, Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD; and E. J. Jensen, W. Randel, R. Ueyama, L. Pfister, and A. Dessler

Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures from Intra-seasonal to Interannual Timescales
Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Sampling Uncertainty in the SWOOSH Database
Ekaterina Lezine, Brown University, Winston Salem, NC; and S. M. Davis and K. H. Rosenlof

Creating long-term climate data records using transfer functions: methodology and application for SAGE II, MIPAS and OMPS ozone profile datasets
Alexandra Laeng, Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and V. Sofieva, N. Kramarova, T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, K. A. Walker, L. Froidevaux, J. Zawodny, and J. Plieninger

Homogeneity of Ozone Data from MERRA-2 and ERA-5.
Peter Krizan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kozubek and J. Lastovicka

Zonally and Seasonally Resolved Ozone Response to the MJO and ENSO in Aura Satellite Measurements of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere
Olga V. Tweedy, USRA/NASA Postdoctoral Program, Greenbelt, MD; and L. D. Oman and D. W. Waugh

Ozone variability and trends in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere using multiple tropopause definitions and observation techniques
Thierry Leblanc, JPL, Wrightwood, CA; and L. F. Millan, I. Petropavlovskikh, P. Hoor, G. L. Manney, H. Boenish, and A. zahn

Insights into Tropical Ozone Profiles, Biases and Uncertainties Using 20 Years of SHADOZ Reprocessed Data
Debra E. Kollonige, SSAI at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. Thompson, R. M. Stauffer, M. Allaart, and A. Piters

Validation of SAGE III/ISS stratospheric water vapor
Sean M. Davis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

SAGE III ISS Aerosol Measurements in the Context of Contemporaneous Satellite Observations
K. R. Leavor, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner and M. M. Roell

Upcoming Improvements to the SAGE III/ISS Retrieval
David B. Huber, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, C. A. Hill, A. F. Rowell, R. Manion, M. Heitz, C. B. Hulsey, M. A. LaRosee, K. R. Leavor, and M. M. Roell

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) V5.1 Science Data Validation: Ozone and Water Vapor
Susan Kizer, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and M. M. Roell, D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, K. R. Leavor, T. Knepp, C. Roller, D. Hurst, E. Hall, A. Jordan, P. Cullis, B. Johnson, and R. Querel

HAPS (high altitude pseudo satellite) UAS for Atmospheric Research – Demonstration and Outlook
Ru-Shan Gao, ESRL, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Rosenlof, T. Thornberry, A. W. Rollins, P. Hall, and J. R. Walker

The Long-Lived Plume of the Pacific Northwest PyroCb Event: MLS Observations and Modeling of Composition Evolution
M. J. Schwartz, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. C. Pumphrey, P. Yu, and G. P. Kablick III

Carbon dioxide in the polar stratosphere from AIM/SOFIE measurements
Jia Yue, Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA; and Y. Su, M. Hervig, B. T. Marshall, A. K. Smith, R. R. Garcia, and J. M. Russell III

The Brewer-Dobson Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Qiang Fu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. H. White, M. wang, and P. Lin

Decomposing the Brewer-Dobson Circulation response to an abrupt 4xCO2 perturbation
Andreas Chrysanthou, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock and M. Chipperfield

A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
Gloria L. Manney, NorthWest Research Associates and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. L. Santee, Z. D. Lawrence, M. J. Schwartz, and K. Wargan

A Diagnostic Equation for Tendency of Lapse-Rate-Tropopause Heights and its Application
Masashi Kohma, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Sato

The Buffer Zone of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Formation and Variability
Aaron L Match, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. Fueglistaler

Seasonal and Latitudinal Variability of High-Frequency Gravity Waves in the Lower Stratosphere
Erik Anders Lindgren, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri and R. W. Carver

Revisiting the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Hamid A. Pahlavan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Q. Fu, J. M. Wallace, and G. N. Kiladis

Impact of QBO and ENSO in the southern hemisphere polar middle atmosphere
Tao Li, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China; and C. Yang and R. Garcia


Poster Session
Arctic-mid-latitude Linkages
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Diagnosing Factors Influencing the Forecast Skill of Two Intense Arctic Cyclones in Early June 2018
Kevin A. Biernat, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Impacts of Regional Sea Ice Loss – a Global Response
Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, L. Hermanson, and N. Dunstone

Isentropic Analyses of the Polar Cold Airmass and Its Outbreaks
Toshiki Iwasaki, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; and Y. Kanno and M. R. Abdillah

Northern Hemisphere Continental Snow Cover During Transitional Seasons: Linking the Arctic and Mid-latitudes
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and T. W. Estilow

Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on the Mean State of the North Atlantic Sector of the Arctic
Gina Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett, T. Mote, and N. Cartwright

Summer Arctic Cold Anomaly Dynamically Linked to East Asian Heat Waves
Bingyi Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; and J. A. Francis

Unravelling of impacts of sea-ice loss on extratropical cold winters
Yeon-Soo Jang, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. S. Kug

Very Strong Correlation Between Northern Hemisphere Jet Response and Arctic-minus-subtropical Warming Across CMIP5 Models
Nicholas Golden, University of North Carolina - Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Scheff


Poster Session
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis of Orographic Precipitation Within an Idealized Atmospheric River Environment
Annareli Morales, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and H. Morrison

Atmospheric Rivers in East Asian Summer Monsoon: Subseasonal Variability and Their Hydrological Impacts
Chanil Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Son

Lightning Characteristics Associated with Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the Continental US Using the GOES-16/17 Geostationary Lightning Mappers
Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and F. M. Ralph

How bad could it get? Future AR Flooding Scenarios in the San Francisco Bay Area
Alison F.C. Bridger, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao and D. Nguyen

Aerosol and Hydrometeor Concentrations during Rain-on-Snow Events of Atmospheric Rivers in Northern California
Samuel Liner, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and J. M. Ryoo and S. Chiao

Atmospheric Rivers in An Ever-Changing Climate
Ashton Cutright, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Investigating the July 2018 Mid-Atlantic Floods with NASA GMAO Forecast and Reanalysis Models
Gary Partyka, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Collow, M. Bosilovich, and J. V. ardizonne

Sub-seasonal Forecast of Water Vapor Transport Associated with Atmospheric River Over the Western U.S.
Zhenhai Zhang, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and M. DeFlorio, A. Subramanian, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph


Poster Session
Communicating Climate Change
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Preparing to Adapt: Are People's Expectations in Line with Climate Projections?
Carley M Eschliman, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and E. Kuster, J. T. Ripberger, and A. M. Wootten

The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions for 2019
Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and K. Gleason, R. R. Heim Jr., C. Fenimore, S. Applequist, and D. S. Arndt

Developing Record Temperature Ratio Indices for the U.S. and the Globe
Anthony Arguez, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and I. Durre, K. Gleason, and R. S. Vose


Poster Session
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction and Impacts
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Reanalysis of the Extended Multivariate ENSO Index
Eric Webb, University of North Carolina - Charlotte (UNCC), Charlotte, NC; and B. Magi

The Niño Dipole Index
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. Meyer and A. Zabaske

Unusual Anomaly Pattern of the 2015/16 El Niño Induced By the 2014 Warm Condition
Wenxiu Zhong, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and W. Cai, X. Zheng, and S. Yang

Influence of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole on ENSO
Faming Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; and J. Zheng

Interannual Variability of Winter-to-Spring Circulation Transition over Southern China and Its Surrounding Areas and Mechanisms
Mingsen Zhou, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and J. Maoqiu

ENSO Transition Complexity and Its Underlying Dynamics in CMIP6 Models
Shih-Wei Fang, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. Y. Yu

ENSO Induced Gpp Extremes Simulated By the CMIP6 Models
Min Xu, ORNL, Oak Rdige, TN; and F. M. Hoffman, N. O. Collier, S. Mahajan, J. Mao, and P. Levine


Poster Session
Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ.
Rainfall Seasonal Forecast by Spectral Analysis of the Large Water Body Levels
Isabella Osetinsky-Tzidaki, ICCLIPP, Bat Yam, Israel

Looking for Seasonal Forecasts-of-Opportunity in the Nmme
Sarah Strazzo, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and E. J. Becker, D. Collins, and J. Infanti

Earth's Climate Variability Over 7 Years From CrIS Brightness Temperature, OMPS Ozone, CarbonTracker CO2, and MERRA-2
Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, M. Feltz, H. Revercomb, D. C. Tobin, and D. Deslover


Joint Poster Session
Studies related to climate engineering posters
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Steered stratospheric aerosol injection: aircraft and operation design, economic and environmental impact
I. E. de Vries, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; and M. Janssens and S. J. Hulshoff

Evaluation of tornadic environments for Japan using multiple data sources and their potential responses under future climate change
Sho Kawazoe, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Fujita, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, S. Watanabe, and M. Inatsu

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 31
From Droughts to Deluges - Learning from Practitioners How to Value the Human Health and Societal Impacts of Hydrologic Disasters
Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 25th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
8:30 AM
J31.1
8:45 AM
J31.2
Droughts and Health in the United States: an Evaluation of Knowledge
Jesse Eugene Bell, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE

9:00 AM
J31.3
9:15 AM
J31.4
Systems Responding to Disasters: The Intersection Between Health, Extreme Events, and the Entities that Respond to Them
Keith Hansen, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE; and R. Lookadoo

9:30 AM
J31.5
The Impact of Natural Disasters on Human Mobility and Health (Invited Presentation)
Caroline O Buckee, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA

9:45 AM
J31.6
Drought and All-Cause Mortality in All Age Groups in Nebraska
Azar Mohammad Abadi kamarei, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE; and Y. Gwon and J. E. Bell


Joint Session 32
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change and Impacts
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Kerry Cook, University of Texas, Austin
8:30 AM
J32.1
Opposite Phase Changes of Precipitation Annual Cycle over Land and Ocean Under Global Warming
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and F. Song, J. Lu, and F. liu

8:45 AM
J32.2
Understanding of the Roles of Global Warming and Natural Variability on Monsoon Rainfall
Kyung-Ja Ha, Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)

9:00 AM
J32.3
The Bridging Role of Eurasian Winter Snow in the Relationship between East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons
Mengmeng Lu, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, MA, China; and Z. Kuang, S. Yang, Z. Li, and H. Fan

9:15 AM
J32.4
Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate
Salvatore Pascale, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and L. M. V. Carvalho, D. K. Adams, C. L. Castro, and I. Cavacanti

9:30 AM
J32.5
Model Performance in Simulating Global Monsoon Features: Skill Evolution across CMIP Generations
Luz Adriana Gómez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and D. C. Cruz, C. D. Hoyos, and P. J. Webster

9:45 AM
J32.6
Sensitivity of Monsoon Precipitation on local Evaporation and Large-scale Circulations using Cloud Permitting Model
Sourav Taraphdar, New York Univ. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and O. Pauluis


Joint Session 33
Earth system modeling and climate change (e.g., Earth system modeling, regional climate modeling, climate change, carbon cycle), Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Chair: Leo Donner, Univ. of Michigan
8:30 AM
J33.1
Evaluation of the Arctic Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6
Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Cassano, E. Valkonen, and E. N. Cassano

8:45 AM
J33.2
How Different Is the Arctic Sea-Ice Condition Revealed By CMIP6 Models?
Muyin Wang, NOAA/OAR/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland

9:00 AM
J33.3
Understanding Projected Uncertainties in the Northern Winter Climate: Role of Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient and Arctic Sea Ice Cover
Ho-Nam Cheung, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China; and N. Keenlyside, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, T. Tian, Z. Xu, Y. Gao, F. Ogawa, N. E. Omrani, S. Qiao, and W. Zhou

9:15 AM
J33.4
Antarctic Ice Sheet – Climate Feedbacks Under High Future Carbon Emissions
Shaina Rogstad, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA; and A. Condron, R. DeConto, and D. Pollard

9:30 AM
J33.5
Ocean Optics can Modulate the Cooling of the Southern Ocean under Doubled CO2 by Affecting Mixed Layer Dynamics
Marie-Aude Pradal, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; The Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and G. E. Kim and A. Gnanadesikan


Joint Session 36
Studies related to climate engineering
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Cochairs: Trude Storelvmo, University of Oslo; Simone Tilmes, NCAR
8:30 AM
J36.1
Meteorological Response to CO2 Sequestration and Storage in Antarctica
Andrea Orton, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. M. Agee and M. E. Baldwin

8:45 AM
J36.2
Climate Impacts from Explosive Volcanic Eruptions, Solar Radiation Change and CO2 Increase
Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, S. Fueglistaler, L. W. Horowitz, D. Luet, and Á. Muñoz

9:00 AM
J36.3
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Progress Report and Future Plans
Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and B. Kravitz

9:15 AM
J36.4
9:30 AM
J36.5
Sulfate geoengineering impacts on agriculture
Lili Xia, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and A. Robock, J. Jägermeyr, and S. Tilmes

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Panel Discussion 1
Ethics and Governance of Weather Modification and Geoengineering Panel Discussion
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
11:00 AM
PD5.3
Values and Methodological Decisions in Climate Intervention Research (Invited Presentation)
Monica A Morrison, Indiana University at Bloomington, Bloomington, IN

11:15 AM
Discussion/Q&A


Joint Panel Discussion 5
An Engineer, a Climatologist, and a Social Scientist Walk into a Bar: Tough Choices on a Warming Planet
Location: 210AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum Sessions; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Moderator: Jamison Hawkins, Lockheed Martin
Panelists: Jill Engel-Cox, Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, NREL; Lori Peek, University of Colorado, Boulder; Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists

Session 8A
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events Part 1
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Christina M Patricola, LBNL; Stephanie Herring, NOAA; Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies
10:30 AM
8A.1
On the Increased Frequency of US Extreme Daily Precipitation Events (Invited Presentation)
Martin Hoerling, NOAA/ESRL-PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. Smith, J. K. Eischeid, and X. W. Quan

10:45 AM
8A.2
Anthropogenic Impacts on the Exceptional Precipitation of 2018 in the Mid-Atlantic United States
Jonathan M. Winter, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and H. Huang, E. C. Osterberg, and J. S. Mankin

11:00 AM
8A.3
Dynamic Amplification of Extreme Precipitation Sensitivity
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and J. Nie, S. Wang, and D. Shaevitz

11:15 AM
8A.4
Different Human Influences on the Joint Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and Aridity (Invited Presentation)
Céline Bonfils, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and B. D. Santer, J. C. Fyfe, K. Marvel, T. Phillips, and S. Zimmerman

11:30 AM
8A.5
Drought Attribution in North America
Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and H. Wan

11:45 AM
8A.6
From Peer- to Public-Review - Towards Operationalising Extreme Event Attribution (Invited Presentation)
Friederike E. L. Otto, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom


Joint Session 38
Earth system modeling and climate change (e.g., Earth system modeling, regional climate modeling, climate change, carbon cycle), Part III
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Chair: Richard Rood, Univ. of Michigan
10:30 AM
J38.1
Future Climate Projections in the French West Indies: Regional Climate, Tropical Cyclones and Storm Waves
Ali Belmadani, Météo-France, Fort-de-France cedex, France; and F. Chauvin, P. Cantet, P. C. Dutrieux, C. Decourcelle, A. Dalphinet, and P. Palany

10:45 AM
J38.2
Extreme Precipitation in the Present and Future Climate over a Topographically Complex Region in a Tropical Environment
Diana Carolina Cruz, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and L. A. Gómez, C. D. Hoyos, D. A. Suarez, D. A. Hernandez, L. A. Sanchez, and J. A. Ospina

11:00 AM
J38.3
How Well Do CMIP5/CMIP6 Models Simulate Northeast US Extreme Precipitation and its Associated Circulation?
Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, D. W. Coe, and J. Polonia

11:15 AM
J38.4
11:30 AM
J38.5
Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System
Eunjee Lee, USRA/NASA Goddard, Greenbelt, MD; and F. W. Zeng, L. Ott, R. Koster, S. Shukla, A. Hazra, K. R. Arsenault, and J. Joiner

11:45 AM
J38.6
Comparison of CMIP6 Historical Simulations and Future Projected Warming to an Empirical Model of Global Climate
Laura McBride, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Hope, T. Canty, W. Tribett, B. Bennett, and R. J. Salawitch

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 9A
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events Part 2
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Christina M Patricola, LBNL; Stephanie Herring, NOAA; Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies; Danielle Touma, University of California, Santa Barbra
1:30 PM
9A.1
Attribution studies of North Atlantic hurricane activity (Invited Presentation)
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, M. Ting, L. Trenary, J. P. Kossin, T. DelSole, and C. Li

2:00 PM
9A.3
Trends in United States Large Hail Frequency
Brian H. Tang, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and V. A. Gensini and C. R. Homeyer

2:15 PM
9A.4

Session 9B
Understanding extreme and compound weather events, Part 1
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
1:30 PM
9B.1
On the Relationship between Temperature Anomalies and U.S. Tornado Frequency
Kimberly Hoogewind, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks

1:45 PM
9B.2
Investigating the Geographic Controls of Severe Local Storm Environments: From Real World to Reduced Complexity
Kevin A. Reed, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and F. Li and D. R. Chavas

2:00 PM
9B.3
Future Changes in Snow Storms over North America
Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and A. M. Haberlie and V. A. Gensini

2:15 PM
9B.4
Examining a Synoptic Climatology of Northeast U.S. Snow Events
Tomer Burg, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 10A
In-Situ Measurements of the Earth System
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
3:00 PM
10A.1
Sector Based Analysis of Atmospheric Rivers from Dropsondes
Alison C Cobb, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and A. C. Michaelis, S. F. Iacobellis, and F. M. Ralph

3:15 PM
10A.2
Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over Northern Hemisphere Land
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC

3:30 PM
10A.3
A New Method to Homogenize Atmospheric Radiosonde Daily Temperature Data
Junhong (June) Wang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Zhou and A. Dai

3:45 PM
10A.4
Identification of Physical Heterogeneities in Canadian High-Frequency Air Temperature Records
Ana Žaknić-Ćatović, Univ. of Toronto, Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; and W. A. Gough


Session 10B
Understanding Extreme and Compound Weather Events, Part 2
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
3:00 PM
10B.1
Processes Determining Heat Waves across Different European Climates
Philipp Zschenderlein, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli

3:15 PM
10B.2
It's Not the Heat, It's the Humidity: The Changing Nature of Summer Hot Days
Karen McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA

3:30 PM
10B.3
US Cold Air Outbreak of November 2014: Precursors and Predictability
Heather Archambault, Citadel, LLC, Greenwich, CT; and W. Norton

3:45 PM
10B.4
Enhanced Risk of Multiple Breadbasket Failures Due to Amplified Rossby Waves
Kai Kornhuber, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. Lesk and R. M. Horton


Joint Session 45
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk Under a Changing Climate - I
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
Cochairs: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island; Glenn Hodgkins, USGS; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Art DeGaetano, Cornell University
3:00 PM
J45.1
Nonstationary or Stationary Frequency Analysis? (Invited Presentation)
Richard M Vogel, Tufts University, Medford, MA; and C. N. Vogel

3:15 PM
J45.2
Urban Flood Prediction Under Heavy Precipitation
Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada; and G. Kinsland, D. Poudel, and A. Fenech

3:30 PM
J45.3
Hydrometeorological Conditions Preceding Extreme Streamflow for the Charles and Mystic River Basins of Eastern Massachusetts
Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, M. J. Collins, E. M. Douglas, and P. Kirshen

3:45 PM
J45.4
Stormwater Management in a Changing Climate
Kenneth W. Potter, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI


Joint Session 49
A stitch in time: protecting and promoting health in a changing climate
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Conference on Environment and Health; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Jeremy Hess, Emory Schools of Medicine and Public Health
Cochairs: Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council; Hannah Nissan, IRI
3:00 PM
J49.1
Building Climate Change Adaptive Capacity in the Public Health Community
Jeff W Bethel, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

3:15 PM
J49.2
Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Morbidity and Mortality of Respiratory Diseases in Germany
Andreas matzarakis, DWD, Freiburg, Germany; and I. Schlegel, S. Muthers, and H. G. Mücke

3:30 PM
J49.3
Rapid Environmental Change and Rising Vulnerability to the Climate-Water-Health Nexus in Growing and Emerging Megacities
Ali S Akanda, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI; and K. Johnson, F. Nusrat, N. Torbick, L. Thiem, H. Bankhah, D. Gute, M. Barlow, A. Huq, and R. Colwell

3:45 PM
J49.4

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Joint Poster Session 3
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk Under a Changing Climate
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island
Cochairs: Glenn Hodgkins, USGS; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ.; Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
Using a WRF Physics Ensemble to Investigate the Behavior of a Flood-Producing Heavy Rainstorm in Current and Future Environments
J. Mike Madden, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and C. Jung, W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann

An Event-Based Downscaling Approach to Modeling Extreme Cloudburst Precipitation Events
Geneva M. E. Gray, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and K. E. Kunkel, T. L. Spero, J. H. Bowden, A. M. Jalowska, and M. S. Mallard

Periodicity of 241-year precipitation at Seoul in summer 1778-2018
Jae Won LEE, KMA, Incheon, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. S. KIM

Considering Uncertainty in Projections of Hydrological Extremes under Climate Change Scenarios in the Catskill Mountains Associated with Decadal Scale Variability
Allan Frei, City University of New York, New York, NY; and E. Owens, R. Gelda, R. Mukundan, J. Gass, and J. Chen

Trends in the Spatial Extent of Daily Extreme Precipitation Totals
Art DeGaetano, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and G. S. Mooers and T. Favata

Assessing Future Flood Risk Toward a Sustainable City and Campus Storm-water and Landscape Ecology Plan: A Cambridge and MIT Case Study
C. Adam Schlosser, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Strzepek, X. Gao, M. Preston, and B. Goldberg

The Historical 2019 Spring Flood Season and Central Region's ROC Response
Stephanie D. Sipprell, NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO; and W. L. Pearson and K. P. Allen

Effects of climate, regulation, and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States
Glenn Hodgkins, USGS, Augusta, ME; and R. Dudley, S. A. Archfield, and B. Renard


Joint Poster Session 3
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change and Impacts
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Drying Tendency over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in Recent Past Decades
Ziqian Wang, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang

How Would the Asian Summer Monsoon Change with a Meridionally-relocated Tibetan Plateau?
Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and J. Wang

Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking in the Eastern North Pacific: Links to Extreme Weather in the North American Monsoon Region
Michael Sierks, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and W. Chapman, J. F. Kalansky, F. Cannon, and F. M. Ralph

The Response of the Tropical Atmosphere to an Idealized Equatorial Continent. Results from TRACMIP
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and R. D. Russotto

Variable-resolution Simulations of Gulf of California Moisture Surges in the North American Monsoon
Sarahi Arriaga-Ramirez, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; Univ. of California Davis, Davis, CA; and T. A. O'Brien, P. Ullrich, and W. Boos


Joint Poster Session 4
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Timescales
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
MJO Propagation and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation over the US
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and W. Wang

Predictability of the Great Plains Low-level Jet and its Associated Precipitation
Kelsey M. Malloy, University of Miami Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Atmospheric Blocking, Forecast Model Resolution, and Extreme Winter Weather Conditions in the U.S.
Kayla Besong, University of Miami Rosensteil School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Re-Analysis Data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF Model
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres

Multi-Scale Interactions in a High-Resolution Tropical-Belt Experiment and Observations
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh, C. K. Teo, and T. Zhang

Designing an optimal strategy for GMAO S2S ensemble forecast
Anna Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, J. Marshak, and Y. K. Lim

Towards improving S2S forecast of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Global Ensemble Prediction System (JMA-GEPS)
Natsuko Otsuka, JMA, Chiyoda-ku, Japan; and T. Takakura and T. Y. Tanaka

Midlatitude Prediction Skill Provided by the QBO-MJO on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales
Kirsten Mayer, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes

The consistency of MJO teleconnection patterns on interannual timescales
Kai-Chih Tseng, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and E. A. Barnes

Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast U.S.
David W. Coe, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and L. Agel, M. Barlow, F. P. Colby Jr., and C. Skinner

Synoptic Analysis of Siberian Pulse Events
Michael Ashley Follensbee, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, L. Agel, and D. W. Coe

The Role of Convection on the Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation During a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982-2017
Equisha Glenn, NOAA, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez, T. Smith, J. M. Galvez, and M. Davison

Sub-Seasonal Predictions with NCEP’s Unified Forecast System
Lydia Stefanova, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, B. Li, J. Wang, D. Worthen, J. Meixner, and A. Mehra

Incorporation of Decadal Trends into the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) Method for Seasonal Prediction of North American Temperature and Precipitation
Johnna Infanti, NOAA, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins, S. Strazzo, Q. J. Wang, Y. Shao, and A. D. Schepen


Poster Session
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth system modeling, regional climate modeling, climate change, carbon cycle)
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Poster Session
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Anthropogenic Influences on Severe Storms in the Midwest
Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

Understanding the Inter-Model Diversity Simulating the Year When the Warming Trend Is Beyond the Internal Variability in CMIP5 Climate Models
Seunghwon Hyun, Hanyang University, South Korea, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Is Climate Change Increasing the Intensification Rates of Tropical Cyclones?
Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Baker, G. A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, K. W. Dixon, and P. L. Vidale


Poster Session
In-Situ measurements of the Earth System
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Snow Depth Over Central North America: 1966-2018
Logan Soldo, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and T. L. Mote


Poster Session
Inter-basin Interactions Between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
On the Relation between the Boreal Spring Position of Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and Atlantic Zonal Mode
Vijay Pottapinjara, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India

Understanding a Non-Stationary Relationship between PDO and Iobm in the Observation
Jin-Sil Hong, Hanyang University, Ansan-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Indian Ocean Dipole Modoki (IODM) and its Responses to Diabatic Heating and Circulation
Debanjana Das, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA USA, VA; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA USA, VA; and D. M. Straus and E. T. Swenson

The underestimated responses of the Pacific Walker Circulation to ENSO in CMIP5 models
Huang Aonan, Chengdu University of Information Technology, ChengDu, China

Tropical-Dipole Mode and Its Impact on the Global Climate
Wang Wenzhu, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Interaction between the Tropical Ocean and Antarctic Climate
Diao Siyue, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, China


Poster Session
Understanding extreme and compound weather events
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Strongest MJO on Record Triggers Atacama Rainfall and Warmth in Antarctica
Roberto Rondanelli, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Dr Johow, Santiago, Chile; and B. J. Hatchett, D. Bozkurt, J. A. Rutllant, and R. D. Garreaud

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC – Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study
Suhung Shen, NASA GSFC/GES DISC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Ostrenga, M. Bosilovich, A. Li, and D. Meyer

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Strong Winds in Korea During Recent 30 Years (1988~2017)
Baek-Jo Kim, KMA, Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. U. Kim and J. Shim

Increased Heat Waves and Extremes with Associated Population Risk in a CO2-Warmed World
Jangho Lee, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler and J. C. Mast

Understanding CWRF Ability to Simulate U.S. Extreme Precipitation Characteristics
chao sun, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD; and X. Z. Liang

Understanding a Regime Shift of Pure Tropical Night Occurrence during Boreal Summer and a Role of Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Eun-Hye Lee, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

Decadal Change of Extreme Cold Days over South Korea for Early Winter
Woo Sung-Ho, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Jee-Hoon

Future Changes in Extreme Heat Waves in High-resolution Time-slice Simulations
Roger W. Turnau, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson, G. M. Lackmann, and A. C. Michaelis

Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Dry and Wet Periods over the United States Great Plains within CMIP5 Models
Paul X. Flanagan, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and J. B. Basara, E. R. Martin, R. Mahmood, and J. C. Furtado

Projection of Compound Events for Central/Eastern Europe
Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Martonvasar, Hungary; Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, I. Pieczka, T. Kalmar, and A. Kis

Examining Contiguous Extreme Events over the United States
Andrew P. Ballinger, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; and K. E. Kunkel

Analyzing Projected Changes to the Seasonal Cycle and Daily Extremes Using the STAR Framework
Andrew P. Ballinger, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; and I. Scott-Fleming, K. Hayhoe, and A. M. K. Stoner

The Use of the ERA5 Reanalysis to Identify Compound Extreme Wind and Precipitation Events Which Are Associated with Extratropical Cyclones
Martina Messmer, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and I. Simmonds

Bayesian Modeling of Central U.S. Tornado Reporting Rates
Corey Potvin, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, and School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, H. E. Brooks, and E. N. Rasmussen

Changes in Snowfall Climatology and Storm Scale Dynamics in a Warmed Climate
Rachel Maya Robinson, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Scheff

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 11
Inter-basin Interactions Between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability Part 1
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
8:30 AM
11.1
Contrasting Interbasin Climate Influences driven by externally forced SST changes in the tropical Ocean Basins
Boniface Fosu, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. He and G. Liguori

8:45 AM
11.2
Interannual Variability of the Early and Late-Rainy Seasons in the Caribbean
Carlos J. Martinez, LDEO/Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and Y. Kushnir, L. Goddard, and M. Ting

9:15 AM
11.4

Joint Session 53
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 1
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
8:30 AM
J53.1
Investigation into Winter Blocking Regimes: Mechanisms for Onset and Predictability
Douglas E. Miller, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

9:00 AM
J53.3
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3-4 Reforecasts for North America
Katherine E. Lukens, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery

9:15 AM
J53.4
Warm Pool SST Forecast Skill in S2S Models: Mean State Drift vs Anomaly Patterns
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman


Joint Session
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk Under a Changing Climate - II
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Glenn Hodgkins, USGS
Cochairs: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ.; Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
8:30 AM
J52.1
8:45 AM
J52.2
Flood Rainfall-Streamflow Relationships in Two Contrasting U.S. River Basins
Erin Mary Dougherty, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. R. Morrison and K. L. Rasmussen

9:00 AM
J52.3
Runoff Coefficients of Floods in New England
Iman Hosseini Shakib, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH; and A. Lightbody and K. Gardner

9:15 AM
J52.4
Changing Frequency of Flood and Drought on Rivers in the United States and Canada
Evan N Dethier, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and S. L. Sartain, F. J. Magilligan, and C. E. Renshaw

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 12
Inter-basin Interactions Between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability Part 2
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
10:30 AM
12.1
Three-Ocean Interactions and Climate Variability: A Review (Invited Presentation)
Chunzai Wang, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

11:00 AM
12.3
11:45 AM
12.6
North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases
Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China


Joint Session 57
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 2
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
10:30 AM
J57.1
The importance of past MJO activity for empirical predictions of midlatitude weather
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and K. C. Tseng and E. D. Maloney

10:45 AM
J57.2
Sources of tropical subseasonal predictability
Matthew Newman, CIRES - CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and Y. Wang

11:00 AM
J57.3
Evaluation of Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation using the MJO and QBO
Kyle M. Nardi, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, C. F. Baggett, D. S. Harnos, L. M. Ciasto, and C. M. Zarzycki

11:15 AM
J57.4
Improving Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks by Incorporating the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation as a Predictor
Cory F. Baggett, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, D. S. Harnos, S. R. Baxter, C. S. Long, M. L'Heureux, J. Gottschalck, and M. Halpert

11:30 AM
J57.5
Improving CPC's Weeks 3&4 Outlooks via Incorporating Extratropical Predictors and an Objective Guidance Blend
Daniel S. Harnos, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, J. Gottschalck, M. Halpert, and M. L'Heureux

11:45 AM
J57.6
Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Teleconnections - Empirical Model Compared to CFSv2
Stephen Baxter, NOAA CPC, College Park, MD; and J. Stuivenvolt Allen

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 13
Inter-basin Interactions Between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability Part 3
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
1:30 PM
13.1
Indo-Pacific interactions through the Indonesian seas during the latest ENSO event (Invited Presentation)
Dongliang Yuan, Institute of Oceanology, CAS, Qingdao, China; and X. Li, Z. Wang, J. Wang, Y. Yang, X. Hu, Y. Li, X. Zhao, C. Corvianawatie, A. K. Wardana, D. Surinati, A. Purwandana, M. F. A. Ismail, P. Avianto, D. Dirhamsyah, and Z. Arifin

1:45 PM
13.2
Tropical Inter-basin Interactions and Their Misrepresentation in Climate Models
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

2:00 PM
13.3
North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability
Baolan Wu, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; and X. Lin and L. Yu

2:15 PM
13.4
An Inter-basin Teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the Subarctic North Pacific at Multidecadal time scales
Zhanqiu Gong, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS),Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and C. Sun, J. Li, J. feng, F. xie, R. Ding, Y. Yang, and J. Xue

2:30 PM
13.5
El Niño pattern diversity and interactions with mean state trends
Danielle E Lemmon, CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. B. Karnauskas

2:45 PM
13.6
On the role of the Indian Ocean as a precursor of ENSO
Juan D. Mantilla, National University of Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster


Joint Session 61
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 3
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
1:30 PM
J61.1
Detecting intraseasonal climate variability in the Tropics with legacy satellites
Xuechang Liu, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and P. W. Staten and B. H. Kahn

1:45 PM
J61.2
Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation affect crop yields?
Weston Anderson, IRI, Palisades, NY; and E. Han, W. Baethgen, Á. Muñoz, L. Goddard, and A. W. Robertson

2:00 PM
J61.3
Insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship in the subseasonal reforecasts
Hyemi Kim, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. H. Richter and Z. K. Martin

2:15 PM
J61.4
Springtime Onset of Isolated Convection Across the Southeastern United States: Insights Using a Monsoon Framework
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto Ferreira and H. Wells

2:30 PM
J61.5
Physical and dynamical characteristics of upper-level coupling in Great Plains low-level jet morphology
D. Alex Burrows, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and L. Bosart

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Thursday)