33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Isla R. Simpson , NCAR ; Bin Guan , JPL
Reviewers: Xichen Li , Institute of Atmospheric Physics ; Emily Becker , NOAA

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Sunday, 12 January 2020

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4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 12 January 2020


Presidential Forum, Annual Meeting Welcome, Annual Review and Awards Ceremony
Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Monday, 13 January 2020

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 1A
African Climate Change and Variability. Part I
Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Michela Biasutti, LDEO
8:30 AM
1A.1
Linking Coupled Model Errors in Simulating East African Climatological Rainfall to Model Biases in SSTs
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1A.2
Observed Relationship between the Turkana Low-Level Jet and Boreal Summer Convection
Edward K. Vizy, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.9 MB)

9:00 AM
1A.3
The Turkana Low-Level Jet—Links to Rainfall and Representation in Climate Models
James A. King, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and R. Washington, S. Engelstaedter, and C. Munday
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1A.4
Can Thermodynamic Intensification of the Global Walker Circulation Help Resolve the East African Climate Paradox?
Chris C. Funk, USGS EROS, Santa Barbara, CA; and A. Fink
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1A.5
Using Seasonal Rainfall Clusters to Explain the Interannual Variability of the Rain Belt over the Greater Horn of Africa
Larisa S. Seregina, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, A. H. Fink, C. C. Funk, and J. G. Pinto
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 1B
Land Use and Land Cover Change—Interactions with Weather and Climate
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Marcus Williams, USDA; Bradford Johnson, TriVector Services, Inc.
8:30 AM
1B.1
New insights into Land–Atmosphere Interactions and Hydrometeorological and Hydroclimatological Extremes (Invited Presentation)
Jeffrey B. Basara, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1B.2
Land-Use and Land Cover Changes Strongly Modulate Warm-Season Precipitation over the Central United States
Maoyi Huang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and A. Devanand, D. M. Lawrence, C. M. Zarzycki, Z. Feng, and P. Lawrence

9:00 AM
1B.3
Impacts of Changing Land Use and Land Cover on Regional Climate in Sub-Saharan Africa
Timothy Glotfelty, Univ. of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC; and D. Ramirez, A. Ghilardi, J. H. Bowden, and J. J. West

9:15 AM
1B.4
Combined Climate–Land Change Driven Impacts from Coproduced Land Cover Scenarios in San Juan, Puerto Rico
Luis E. Ortiz, The New School, New York, NY

9:30 AM
1B.5
Afforestation versus Reforestation in New Zealand: Effects on Regional Climate
M. James Salinger, Univ. of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; and J. D. Fuentes, M. E. Mann, and Z. Moon
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1B.6
Trade-Offs between Land Management and Regional Climate in the Brazilian Cerrado
Stephanie Spera, Univ. of Richmond, Richmond, VA; and J. M. Winter and T. Partridge
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 1C
Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. Part I
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University
8:30 AM
1C.1
An Autumn Arctic Pacific Sea-Ice Dipole as a Source of Predictability for Subsequent Spring Barents–Kara Sea-Ice Conditions
Yu-Chiao Liang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and C. Frankignoul and Y. O. Kwon
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1C.2
Gfdl's SPEAR Seasonal Predictions: Initialization and Bias Correction with Coupled Data Assimilation
Feiyu Lu, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and A. Rosati, M. Harrison, T. L. Delworth, and W. F. Cooke
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1C.3
Toward Western U.S. Seasonal Snowpack Prediction (Invited Presentation)
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and X. Yang, S. Malyshev, T. L. Delworth, and W. F. Cooke
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1C.4
Persistent and Reemergent Sea Surface Temperatures: A Recipe for Better Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Matthew B. Switanek, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. Scheuerer, J. Barsugli, and T. M. Hamill
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1C.5
Skillful Empirical Prediction of High-Impact Temperature Deviations
Patrick T. Brown, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and M. Evans, A. Mahesh, H. Gupta, and K. caldeira
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1D
Special Session with Senator Whitehouse
Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin
9:45 AM
1D.1
The Role of Scientists in Public Policy during the Age of Climate Misinformation (Invited Presentation)
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator for Rhode Island, Providence, RI

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 2A
African Climate Change and Variability. Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin; Edward K. Vizy, 1 University Station; C1160
10:30 AM
2A.1
A Systematic Comparison of Tropical Waves over Western and Eastern Equatorial Africa
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. Schlueter, R. van der Linden, and J. G. Pinto
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2A.2
The Influence of Kelvin Waves during Dry and Wet African Rainfall Years
Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and C. J. Schreck III
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2A.3
Attribution of Sahel Rainfall Variability: What Can Flawed Models Teach Us?
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and K. Marvel, R. Herman, A. Giannini, and Y. Kushnir
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2A.4
The Tropical Easterly Jet over West Africa in Models and Observations and the Links to Sahel Rainfall
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

11:30 AM
2A.5
Characterizing 15 Years of Saharan Air Layer Properties in North Africa
Stephen D. Nicholls, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore, MD; and K. I. Mohr, J. J. Shi, and S. A. Braun
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2A.6
On the Interpretation of Seasonal Southern Africa Precipitation Prediction Skill Estimates during Austral Summer
Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Eischeid
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 2B
Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. Part II
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University
10:30 AM
2B.1
Initialized Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting without Initalization
Matthew Newman, CIRES–Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and H. Ding, Y. Wang, and M. A. Alexander
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2B.2
A Subseasonal-to-Decadal Prediction Research Framework with NCAR’s CESM1 and CESM2
Jadwiga Richter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Yeager, J. Caron, W. M. Kim, A. S. Glanville, K. Lindsay, K. Oleson, J. Edwards, J. Tribbia, H. Teng, J. Berner, S. Bates, N. Rosenbloom, G. Strand, J. Olson, G. Danabasoglu, I. R. Simpson, B. Medeiros, M. C. Long, G. A. Meehl, and J. F. Lamarque
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2B.3
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction with an Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Model (Invited Presentation)
Ben Kirtman, RSMAS, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2B.4
Assessment of CanESM5 Decadal Hindcasts: Modes of Variability and Their Teleconnections
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, CCCma, Victoria, Canada; and W. S. Lee, V. Kharin, W. Merryfield, and G. J. Boer
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2B.5
Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps
Qinxue Gu, The Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and M. M. Gervais
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 2C
Western North American Climate: Diagnosis, Prediction, and Impacts at Subseasonal-to-Multidecadal Scales
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Emily Becker, NOAA
10:30 AM
2C.1
Projections in Many Directions: Extracting Meaningful Guidance for Water Resources Planning in the Western United States from the NA-CORDEX GCM-RCM Ensemble
Kelly Mahoney, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Scott, M. Alexander, M. Hughes, D. Swales, and R. McCrary
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2C.2
Changes in Extreme Integrated Water Vapor Transport on the U.S. West Coast in NA-CORDEX, and Their Relationship to Mountain and Inland Precipitation
Mimi Hughes, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. Swales, J. D. Scott, M. Alexander, K. Mahoney, and R. McCrary
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2C.3
The Modulation of Natural Gas through Winter Climate and Cyclone Variability
Jacob Stuivenvolt Allen, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2C.4
Influences and Impacts of Variability and Recent Collapse in Seasonal Bering Sea Ice Coverage
Richard Thoman Jr., Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2C.5
Large-Scale Drivers of Connected Atmospheric Rivers along the U.S. West Coast
Meredith A. Fish, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and J. Done, A. M. Wilson, and F. M. Ralph
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2C.6
Mesoscale Climate Surprises over the Pacific Northwest: Initial Results of a Large High-Resolution Regional Climate Ensemble for 1970–2100
Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Steed and J. Baars
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
The Need for Water Driving the Science of Rain and Snow: Past, Present, and Future (Centennial)
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
2:00 PM
J6.1
Weather and Climate Modification as a Driving Force for Cloud Physics Research (Invited Presentation) (Core Science Keynote)
Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J6.2
Atmospheric Rivers in the Context of Water Cycle and Climate Change Research (Invited Presentation)
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
J6.3
Weather Modification Research to Enhance Water Supplies in the Western United States (Invited Presentation)
Dave Matthews, CEO Hydrometdss, LLC, Silverthorne, CO; and D. Reynolds and G. E. Klazura
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
Discussion/Q&A

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 3A
Climate Dynamics—General
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Young-Oh Kwon, WHOI
2:00 PM
3A.1
Effects of Spatial Patterns of Ocean Heat Uptake on the Intermodel Spread of the Transient Climate Response
M. Cameron Rencurrel, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. E. J. Rose
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3A.2
What Can Glacial–Interglacial Cycles Reveal about Climate Sensitivity?
Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3A.3
The Arctic Boundary Layer Cloud Annual Cycle and the Influence of Surface–Atmosphere Interactions: Implications for Arctic Climate Change
Patrick C. Taylor, NASA, Hampton, VA; and R. C. Boeke
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3A.4
Structural Changes and Variability of the ITCZ Induced By Radiation–Cloud–Convection–Circulation Interactions: Inferences from the Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (GMMF) Experiments
William K. M. Lau, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and K. M. Kim, J. D. Chern, W. K. Tao, and L. R. Leung
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3A.5
Communication Breakdown: The Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnections
Brandon O. Wolding, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and E. Maloney, S. Henderson, and M. Branson
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3A.6
The Role of Tropical Diabatic Heating for the Indian Monsoon
Erik T. Swenson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus and D. Das
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
3A.7
Climate Variability and Change in South America
Carolina Vera, Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
3A.8
Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Arsenals by Pakistan and India Portends Regional and Global Catastrophes
Owen Brian Toon, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO; and C. G. Bardeen, A. Robock, L. Xia, H. Kristensen, M. McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, C. Harrison, N. S. Lovenduski, and R. Turco
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 3B
Dynamics of Jet Streams and Storm Tracks in Past, Present, and Future Climates
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine; Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2:00 PM
3B.1
How Will Atmospheric Persistent Anomalies Change in a Warming Climate?
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. C. Michaelis, W. A. Robinson, and R. Miller
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3B.2
The Bivariate Sensitivity of Persistent Anomalies to Environmental Temperature and Baroclinicity
Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. Miller, W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3B.3
Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: A Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change
Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rice University, Houston, TX; and E. Nabizadeh, D. Yang, and E. A. Barnes
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3B.4
Increased Shear in the North Atlantic Upper-Level Jet Stream over the Past Four Decades
Paul D. Williams, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. H. Lee and T. H. A. Frame
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3B.5
Atmospheric Blocking as an Evolution of Rossby Wave Packets
Lei Wang, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

3:15 PM
3B.6
A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Amanda Maycock, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and G. Masukwedza, P. Hitchcock, and I. R. Simpson
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
3B.7
Impacts of the Planetary-Scale Eddies on the Midwinter Suppression in North Pacific Storm Track Intensity
Mingyu Park, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
3B.8
An Investigation of the Effect of Ocean Mesoscale Variability on the Dynamics of the North Pacific Jet Stream and Storm Track
Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. Forinash, G. Gyarmati, Y. Jia, P. Chang, and R. Saravanan
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 3C
The Use of Large Ensembles in Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Karen McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles; Justin Mankin, Dartmouth College
2:00 PM
3C.1
The Use of Large Ensembles in Climate Model Consistency Testing (Invited Presentation)
Dorit Hammerling, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and A. Baker

2:30 PM
3C.2
The Signature of Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle (Invited Presentation)
Gordon B. Bonan, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3C.3
Uncertainty Introduced by Internal Climate Variability in the Projected Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Crop Yields
Budong Qian, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada; and Q. Jing, W. Smith, B. Grant, A. J. Cannon, and X. Zhang

3:00 PM
3C.4
Planning for a Changing Mountain Hydroclimate: Using Large Ensembles to Assess Future Risks (Invited Presentation)
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, H. G. Chan, W. F. Cooke, P. Ginoux, S. Malyshev, S. Pascale, D. B. Kirschbaum, T. A. Stanley, and I. Velicogna
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3C.5
The Seasonality of Surface Temperature Warming: A Robust Comparison of Models and Observations.
Alexa Zabaske, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Nielsen-Gammon
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
3C.6
Assessing Climate Variability and Change in an Ensemble Simulation of Climate Impacts on U.S. Air Quality and Public Health (Invited Presentation)
Fernando Garcia Menendez, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. East, R. K. Saari, and E. Monier
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
3C.7
On the Use of Large Ensembles for Studying Climate and Air Quality
Christopher W. Callahan, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and J. S. Mankin
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Panel Discussion 2
The Need for Water Driving the Science of Rain and Snow: Past, Present, and Future Panel (Centennial)
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions )
Chair: Roy Rasmussen, NCAR
Panelists: Sarah Tessendorf, Univ. of Colorado Boulder; Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL; Dave Matthews, CEO Hydrometdss, LLC; Ethan Gutmann, NCAR; Ken Nowak, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 1
Climate Dynamics—General
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
90
Examining Tropospheric Precursors to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events from an Ensemble Perspective
Michael E. Main, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang

Handout (9.0 MB)

91
Application of Weighted Multimodel Ensemble Means: A Method to Manage Uncertainties between Climate Models
Hamidreza Ahmadzadeh Araji, Univ. Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia; and A. Wayayok, A. Massah Bavani, and A. Fikri Abdullah

92
Steppe Ecosystem and Climatic Variability (Western Algeria)
Bensmira Zaza, Univ. of Mascara, Mascara, Algeria

93
Progress toward Modeling Three-Dimensional Lake Dynamics Driven by a Global General Circulation Model
Brent M. Lofgren, GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI

94
The Meridional Structure of the Effects of Global Warming on Atmospheric Radiative Cooling and Precipitation
Charlotte Connolly, Ohio Univ., Springfield, OH; and A. Naegele and D. A. Randall

Sensitivity of Amazon Carbon Balance to Climate and Human-Driven Changes

95
Quantifying the Contributions of the Stratospheric and Tropospheric Pathways toward the Acceleration of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex after Nuclear War
Joshua L. Coupe, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and C. Bardeen, A. Robock, and O. B. Toon

Poster 96 is now Poster 1165A.

97
Rapid Adjustments, Climate Feedbacks, and Polar Amplification in a Multimodel Aquaplanet Ensemble
Rick D. Russotto, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and M. Biasutti

98
Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis of Orographic Precipitation within an Idealized Atmospheric River Environment
Annareli Morales, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and H. Morrison

99
Investigating Australian Monsoon Sensitivity to Large Volcanic Eruptions in the Last Millennium through Model-Proxy Synthesis
Cali M. Pfleger, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and S. Murty, F. Horton, B. Monteleone, L. Giosan, G. Gaetani, R. Denniston, and C. C. Ummenhofer

100
Regional and Seasonal Responses of Tropical Precipitation to Past Climate Changes
Eric Mischell, Brown Univ., Providence, RI

101
Recent Changes in the South America Low-Level Jet
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA

102
Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Strong Winds in Korea during the Past 30 Years (1988–2017)
Baek-Jo Kim, KMA, Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. U. Kim and J. Shim

103
Evolution of Arctic Oscillation in the Past 21 000 Years: A Modeling Study
Xinyu Wen, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and W. Liang
Manuscript (3.2 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

104
A Comparison of the Westerly Wind Bursts between the Positive Phase and the Negative Phase of the PDO
Yunhao Shi, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and J. Su

Handout (3.1 MB)

105
An Information Theory–Based Evaluation of General Circulation Models Regarding Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Effects on the Carpathian Basin
Erzsebet Kristof, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; Eotvos Lorand Univ., Martonvasar, Hungary; and R. Hollos, R. Pongracz, and J. Bartholy

106
The Processes That Drive the Temperature Anomalies of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Pattern
Joseph P. Clark, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Feldstein

106A
Climatology of atmospheric rivers in East Asian summer monsoon region
Chanil Park, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Son and H. M. Kim
Manuscript (7.6 kB)

Isolating Zonal Influences on Global Climate Feedbacks Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions


Poster Session 2
African Climate Change and Variability
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin; Edward K. Vizy, 1 University Station; C1160
107
The Role of Overturning Zonal Circulations in Determining the Seasonality of East African Precipitation
Siyu Zhao, Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX

108
Anthropogenic Influences on the African Easterly Jet–African Easterly Wave System
Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

109
Evolution of the Vertical Structure of the Saharan Air Layer during the Land–Ocean Transition Using MERRA-2 Global Analyses and Nu-WRF Model Simulations
Jainn J. Shi, NASA GSFC, Morgan State Univ./GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun, S. D. Nicholls, and K. I. Mohr

110
Verifying Shifts in the Equatorial African Precipitation Cycle Using a New Seasonal Rainfall Model
Molly M. Wieringa, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and S. T. Amdur IV

111
African Easterly Wave Characteristics: Climate Variability and Trends
Yuan-Ming Cheng, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

112
Forecasting Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics in Rwanda Using the NextGen Python-Based Climate Predictability Tool
Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and M. Mbati, N. Acharya, A. Gahigi, and Á. Muñoz

Handout (2.0 MB)

113
Historical and Projected Trends in Near-Surface Temperature Indices for 22 Locations in South Africa
Thabo Elias Makgoale, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa; and A. C. Kruger, H. Rautenbach, S. Mbatha, and S. Ngwenya

114
Climate Change and Population Growth Impacts on Surface Water Supply and Demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Ethiopian Civile Service Univ., Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

115
Increasing Man-Made Air Pollution Reduces Rainfall in Southern West Africa
Gregor Pante, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, and A. Kniffka

116
Influence of Indian Ocean SSTs on the East African Short Rains
Weiran Liu, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. Vizy

Handout (1.5 MB)

117
Shape of a Water Crisis: Practitioner Perspectives on Drought and Urban Water in South Africa
Coleen Vogel, Univ. of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; and A. H. Lynch, G. Maree, Z. Bischoff-Mattson, D. Olivier, and D. Terblanche


Poster Session 4
Land Use and Land Cover Change—Interactions with Weather and Climate
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
118
Basin Scale Atmospheric Moisture Recycling Should be Accounted for in Land-Use Change Studies

118
Simulating the Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Change on the Climate of the Northern North American Great Plains
Gabriel Bromley, Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, S. Albeke, and P. Stoy

119
Impacts of Future Land-Use Land Cover on Boundary Layer Development in the North-Central United States
Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and R. Mahmood, T. Sohl, M. D. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, and M. J. Hayes

120
Spatial Variability in the Albedo-Derived Warming Effect of Afforestation
Maxwell Goodman, LDEO, New York, NY

121
The Climatic Impact of Projected Land-Use Change in Western Canada Simulated by a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model under RCP8.5
Zhenhua Li, Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada; and Y. Li and Z. Zhang


Poster Session 5
The Dynamics of Jet Streams and Storm Tracks in Past, Present, and Future Climates
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
122
CYGNSS Wind Speed and Surface Heat Flux Observations of Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones and Fronts
Juan A. Crespo, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and C. Naud and D. J. Posselt

123
Understanding the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Processes That Govern the Structure and Evolution of Persistent West Coast Cool Season Ridge Regimes
Tyler C. Leicht, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

124
The Role of Mean State Bias in a Climate Model on Atmospheric Blocking Frequency
Edward Kleiner, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang, L. Wang, and P. W. Chan

125
Factors That Influence North Pacific Tropopause Folds and Their Changes in a Future Warmer Climate
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Albers, M. L. Breeden, J. Benjamin, and A. Ortiz

126
Macroturbulence Response to Vertical Stratification Change Using Linear Response Function of an Idealized Dry Atmosphere
Pak-Wah Chan, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and P. Hassanzadeh and Z. Kuang

Handout (1.7 MB)


Poster Session 6
The Use of Large Ensembles in Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
127
Distinguishing Features of Ensemble Spread between Drought and Flood Years of Indian Summer Monsoon in the Past 58 Years (1958–2015) Reforecasts

128
An Investigation into the Role of External Forcing and Ocean Coupling on the Relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Vertical Wind Shear in the Main Development Region
Sydney M. Kramer, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and A. C. Clement and L. N. Murphy

129
Scaling Relationships between Extreme Precipitation and Local Temperature: Contrasting for Binning Scaling and Trend Scaling
Qiaohong Sun, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, Canada; and F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. Li

132
Summer Season Lengthening and Extreme Heat Wave Expansions over the Northern Hemisphere Assessed Using Multi-AGCM Large-Ensemble Simulations
Bo-Joung Park, Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. K. Min

130
Relative Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Processes to Rainfall Variability over Victoria, Australia

133
Volcanic Eruption Signals in Large Ensembles
Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ

131
Perturbed Parameter Ensembles of Idealized Experiments to Identify Plausible and Diverse Variants of a Model for Climate Change Projections

134
Assessing the Frequency, Duration, and Intensity of Heat Waves from a Dynamically Downscaled Initial-Conditions Large Ensemble
Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, Canada; Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. Jalbert, A. Mailhot, E. Pechenova, L. Huettenhofer, R. Ludwig, and A. Frigon


Poster Session 7
Western North American Climate: Diagnosis, Prediction, and Impacts at Subseasonal-to-Multidecadal Scales
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
135
Characteristics of Different Atmospheric River Types and Their Links with Extreme Precipitation over Western North America
Yaheng Tan, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang and F. W. Zwiers

136
Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events along the Coast of Washington State
Allison Collow, USRA, Columbia, MD; and H. Mersiovsky, M. Bosilovich, and R. Koster

137
On the Mechanisms of the Suppressed Pacific Decadal Oscillation in a Warming Climate
Yun Yang, Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China

138
Monthly Difference in the Prediction Skill of the Boreal Winter ENSO Response over North America in Coupled and Uncoupled NASA GEOS-5 Model Simulations
Young-Kwon Lim, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and Y. Chang

Handout (2.3 MB)

139
Relating Zonal Variability in Sea Surface Temperature to the Structure of North Pacific Anticyclones
Jamin K. Rader, SOARS, Boulder, CO; and A. Walker, K. B. Karnauskas, and L. Zhang

140
Predictability of Two Types of El Niños Assessed by ECMWF System 5 and Its Impacts on Western North American Climate
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Trieste, Italy; Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Handout (6.5 MB)

141
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction of California Winter Precipitation and the Northern Pacific Jet Stream
Emily Becker, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. L'Heureux and M. K. Tippett

142
Diminished Flows in Southwestern Snow-Fed Rivers: Assessing and Normalizing Climate Change Projections for Use in Heavily Managed Hydrologic Systems
David S. Gutzler, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and N. R. Bjarke and N. T. Townsend

143
Large-Scale Circulation Context for Atmospheric Rivers: Influence of the North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection
Justin D. Hicks, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam, A. Ruiz-Barradas, and B. Guan

144
Changing North American Circulation Patterns in the Last 100 Years
Jin-Ho Yoon, Gwagnju Institue of Science and Technology, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. Y. Wang and J. H. Jeong

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 4A
Arctic Midlatitude Linkages. Part I
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine
8:30 AM
4A.1
Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Synoptic Time Scale and Related Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Walsh, S. M. Szymborski, and M. Peng

8:45 AM
4A.2
The Driving of Intraseasonal Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Barents and Kara Seas
Zhina Jiang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and S. Feldstein and S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4A.3
An Observational Estimate of the Direct Atmospheric Response to the Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Claude Frankignoul, Sorbonne Univ., Paris, France; and A. Simon, G. Gastineau, and Y. O. Kwon

9:15 AM
4A.4
Detection of Signal in the Large-Scale Circulation Response to Arctic Sea-Ice Decline
Zachary M. Labe, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings and G. Magnusdottir
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4A.5
Examining the Forecast Skill of the Synoptic-Scale Flow Associated with Arctic Cyclones
Daniel Keyser, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat and L. F. Bosart
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4A.6
Quantification of Arctic Sea-Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Hindcast Simulations
Yu-Chiao Liang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and Y. O. Kwon, C. Frankignoul, G. Danabasoglu, S. Yeager, A. Cherchi, Y. Gao, G. Gastineau, R. Ghosh, J. Mecking, D. Peano, L. Suo, and T. Tian
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts. Part I
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen Baxter, NOAA/CPC
8:30 AM
4B.1
Identifying Equatorial Pacific Subseasonal Wind Event Impacts and Statistically Forecasting ENSO SSTA Development from Moored-Buoy and Scatterometer Winds
Andrew M. Chiodi, Univ. of Washington, JISAO, and NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
4B.2
Different Types of El Niño Transition Processes One Year after Its Occurrence
Sang Wook Yeh, Hanyang Univ., South Korea, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4B.3
Why does the CP El Niño Less Frequently Change into La Niña than the EP El Niño?
Shan He, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; Univ. of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. Y. Yu, S. Yang, and S. W. Fang
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
4B.4
A Constraint of ENSO Complexity by Tropical Pacific Mean State
Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and S. W. Fang

9:30 AM
4B.5
ENSO Asymmetry in Amplitude and Duration in a Linear Model with State-Dependent Noise
Cristian Alexis Martinez-Villalobos, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and D. J. Vimont, M. Newman, C. Penland, and J. D. Neelin
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4B.6
ENSO Persistence Barrier and Its Impact Factors as Revealed in CMIP5 Simulations
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Tian
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4C
Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. Part III
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Steve Yeager, NCAR
CoChair: Steve Yeager, NCAR
8:30 AM
4C.1
Decadal Predictability of Late Winter Precipitation in Western Europe through an Ocean–Jet Stream Connection
Isla R. Simpson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Yeager, K. McKinnon, and C. Deser
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
4C.2
Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift
Balasubramanya T. Nadiga, LANL, Los Alamos, NM
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4C.3
Decadal Prediction with an Ensemble of Ocean Analyses
Leon Hermanson, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, N. Dunstone, and R. Eade
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
4C.4
Understanding the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Predictions
Wei Zhang, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4C.5
Forecasting Implications of Abrupt North Atlantic Climate Changes
James Johnstone, Climate Forecasting Applications Network, Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4C.6
Quality Assessment of Decadal Climate Predictions with EC-Earth
Simon Wild, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and R. Bilbao, Y. Ruprich-Robert, J. C. Acosta Navarro, A. E. Amaral Ramos, L. P. Caron, R. Cruz-García, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. G. Donat, P. Ortega, V. Sicardi, and E. Tourigny

Recording files available
Joint Session 11
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth System Modeling, Regional Climate Modeling, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle). Part I
Location: 210C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Robert Dickinson Symposium; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Leo Donner, Univ. of Michigan
Keynote: Gordon Bonan, NCAR
8:30 AM
J11.1
From Atmospheric Sciences to Ecology: Building an Interdisciplinary View of Climate
Gordon B. Bonan, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J11.2
Changes in the Thermosphere/Ionosphere over the Past Century: Results from Whole Atmosphere Model Simulations
Joseph M. McInerney, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. C. Solomon, L. Qian, H. L. Liu, and S. Nossal
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J11.3
The GeoCarb Mission
Berrien Moore III, National Weather Center and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Crowell
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J11.4
Extracting the Buoyancy-Driven Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
J11.5
Toward Understanding the Shortwave Cloud Feedback in Climate Change: Exploring the Mechanisms of Extratropical Liquid Water Path Increase in Mixed-Phase Clouds in a Warming Climate
Michelle Elizabeth Frazer, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 5A
Arctic Midlatitude Linkages. Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Brian Rose, University of Albany
10:30 AM
5A.1
The Role of a Tropopause Polar Vortex in the January 2019 Arctic Outbreak
Samuel P. Lillo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo, D. B. Parsons, and C. P. Riedel

10:45 AM
5A.2
Examining the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vorticies and Stratospheric Variability
Cameron R. Paquette, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
5A.3
A Comparison of the Predictability of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclones
Peyton K. Capute, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
5A.4
The Role of the Tropically Excited Arctic Warming Mechanism on the Warm Arctic Cold Continent Surface Air Temperature Trend Pattern
Joseph P. Clark, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
5A.5
Relation between Arctic Moisture Flux and Tropical Temperature Biases in CMIP5 Simulations and Its Fingerprint in RCP8.5 Projections
Sukyoung Lee, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and C. Woods and R. Caballero

11:45 AM
5A.6
Influence of Northward Heat Transport on Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble
Young-Oh Kwon, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and L. Fleming, R. Vargas-Martes, G. Gebbie, and H. Furey

Recording files available
Session 5B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction. and Impacts. Part II
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen Baxter, NOAA/CPC
10:30 AM
5B.1
The Randomness of Extreme El Niño Events
Sungduk Yu, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and A. Fedorov
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
5B.2
Governing Processes of Extreme El Niño and Implications for Future Projections
Agus Santoso, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; and W. Cai and G. Wang
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
5B.3
ENSO Precipitation Variations Using Passive Microwave and Radar Observations from TRMM and GPM
Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
5B.4
Climatology and Variability of Warm and Cold Fronts over North America
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and R. A. Lagerquist and A. McGovern
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
5B.5
On the Seasonality and Linearity of the El Niño Teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea Region
Yu Yeung Scott Yiu, Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock
Recorded Presentation

5B.6
Impacts of the Combined Effect of ENSO Regimes and MJO on Daily Precipitation over the Amazon Basin: A Focus on Southern Peruvian Highland

Recording files available
Session 5C
Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. Part IV
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Steve Yeager, NCAR; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University
10:30 AM
5C.1
Reliability and Usability of Climate Predictions and Projections
Daniel J. Befort, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and C. H. O'Reilly, D. MacLeod, and A. Weisheimer

10:45 AM
5C.2
Isolating a Coupled Climate Signal Using the Interactive Ensemble Modeling Approach to Study Climate Variability and Dynamic Processes in the North Pacific Ocean
Natalie Perlin, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
5C.3
Exploring Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability of Climate Extremes by Combining High-Resolution Climate Modeling with Big Data Analytics (Invited Presentation)
Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction, College Station, TX; and P. Chang, S. Yeager, W. C. Hsu, G. Danabasoglu, L. Wu, and S. Zhang

11:30 AM
5C.4
Using the Ocean to Identify Forecasts of Opportunity for Decadal Prediction
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and J. Hurrell

11:45 AM
5C.5
Understanding the Role of Decadal Climate Prediction for Flood Risk and Water Resource Management
James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Das, H. Lazrus, R. E. Morss, A. Munévar, E. Towler, and M. Tye
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 17
AI and Climate: Impact and Opportunities
Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the Events )
Cochairs: Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern University; Karthik Kashinath, LBNL
10:30 AM
J17.1
Viewing Climate Signals through an AI Lens (Core Science Keynote)
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and I. Ebert-Uphoff, J. Hurrell, C. W. Anderson, and D. Anderson
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J17.2
Evaluation of Data-Driven Causality Discovery Methods among Dominant Climate Modes
Steve R. Hussung, Indiana Univ., Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and S. Mahmud, A. Sampath, M. Wu, P. Guo, and J. Wang

11:15 AM
J17.3
Deep Learning Semantic Segmentation for Climate Change Precipitation Analysis
Andrew Lou, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; Univ. of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and E. Chandran, M. Prabhat, J. Biard, K. Kunkel, M. F. Wehner, and K. Kashinath

11:30 AM
J17.4
The Future of Severe Thunderstorms in the United States—Insights from Combining Deep Learning and High-Resolution Modeling
Maria J. Molina, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gagne II and A. F. Prein
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J17.5
Downscaling Climate Model Data for Energy and Crop Modelling Using Self-Organizing Maps
Andrew Polasky, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans and J. Fuentes
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 6A
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications. Part I
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
1:30 PM
6A.1
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation for the Seven U.S. National Climate Assessment Regions
Emily A. Slinskey, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; and P. Loikith, D. E. Waliser, and B. Guan
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
6A.2
Atmospheric River Scale Captures Economic Flood Impacts
Thomas W. Corringham, SIO/UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, and C. Talbot
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
6A.3
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers over the Northeast United States
Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and A. N. Kaminski, N. D. Metz, M. Duncan, K. Bachli, M. Ericksen, I. Glade, C. Roberts, and C. Evans
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
6A.4
Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers
David A. Lavers, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and M. J. Rodwell, D. S. Richardson, A. Subramanian, F. M. Ralph, J. D. Doyle, C. Reynolds, R. Torn, V. Tallapragada, and F. Pappenberger
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 6B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts. Part III
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen Baxter, NOAA/CPC
1:30 PM
6B.1
ENSO Transition Complexity and Its Underlying Dynamics in CMIP6 Models
Shih-Wei Fang, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. Y. Yu

1:45 PM
6B.2
Precursors of ENSO Diversity in the NCAR CESM2 Climate Model
Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO

2:00 PM
6B.3
Diversity of El Niño Events and Its Impact on East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation
Jianjun Xu, Guangdong Ocean Univ., Zhanjiang, China; and S. Yuan and H. Xu
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
6B.4
The Longitude of Tropical Pacific Deep Convection: A Perspective on ENSO Diversity and Implications for Western U.S. Hydroclimate
Christina M. Patricola, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and I. N. Williams, J. P. O'Brien, M. D. Risser, A. M. Rhoades, T. O'Brien, P. Ullrich, D. Stone, and W. D. Collins
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 21
Understanding the Hazards of Heat Waves to Address the Risks to Human and Animal Health
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
Chairs: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin; Wassila Thiaw, CPC
1:30 PM
J21.1
Impact of Tropical Modes of Variability on Sahelian Heat Waves: A Case Study in April 2003
Kiswendsida H. Guigma, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom; and F. Guichard, P. Peyrillé, M. C. Todd, J. Barbier, and Y. Wang
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J21.2
Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States
Natalie Thomas, USRA, Columbia, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Bosilovich, A. Collow, R. D. Koster, S. D. Schubert, A. Dezfuli, and S. Mahanama
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J21.3
How Dry Soil Moisture Extremes Exacerbate Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States
David O. Benson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J21.4
The Hurricane Heat Trail Effect on Caribbean Heat Waves.
Theodore Allen, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Bridgetown, Barbados; and Z. Guido, P. A. M. Lazaro, M. Y. Lichtveld, S. J. Mason, and J. Henderson
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 23
Aerosol–Climate Interactions from Regional to Global Scale. Part I
Location: 208 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
CoChair: Yuan Wang, California Institute of Technology
1:30 PM
J23.1
Deciphering Aerosol Effects on Climate from the Global to Regional Scales (Invited Presentation)
Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, NOAA, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J23.2
Enhanced Land–Sea Warming Contrast Elevates Aerosol Pollution in a Warmer World (Invited Presentation)
Robert J. Allen, Univ. of California, Riverside, CA; and T. Hassan, C. Randles, and H. Su
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J23.3
Investigating Meteorological Influences on PM2.5 in Future Earth System Model Simulations with Superparameterized Convection
Alison Banks, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and G. J. Kooperman and Y. Xu
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J23.4
Significant Impacts of African Wildfire Aerosols on Mid- and High-Latitude Climates in the Northern Hemisphere
Huiping Yan, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang, Z. Zhu, J. Luo, Y. Qian, and Y. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 24
Women in the Tropics. Part I
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chairs: Kelly M. Nunez Ocasio; Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ.
Speaker: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President Jenni Evans

1:30 PM
J24.1
Women in the Tropics: Contributions to Our Understanding of Tropical Cyclones in Vertical Wind Shear
Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J24.2
Contributions of Women in the English-Speaking Caribbean to Tropical Meteorology Operations, Education, Research, and Applications
Arlene G. Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago; and K. A. Caesar, A. Sealy, R. Mahon, and T. S. Stephenson
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J24.3
Leaving the Tropics to Study the Tropics
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J24.4
Combining Observational Studies and Numerical Modeling to Further the Understanding and Prediction of Convective Systems in the Tropics: The Role of Brazilian Scientist Maria a. F. Silva Dias
Ligia Bernardet, CU/CIRES at NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO; and L. M. V. Carvalho
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 7A
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications. Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
3:00 PM
7A.1
Atmospheric River Influences on Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
Lexi Henny, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft, H. H. Hsu, and L. F. Bosart
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7A.2
Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers in the Middle East
Elias Massoud, NASA JPL, Pasadena, CA; and T. Massoud and D. E. Waliser
Recorded Presentation

7A.3
Atmospheric Rivers and Cyclone Clustering from Reanalyses and High-Resolution Model Simulations

3:45 PM
7A.4
Large-Scale Controls of Landfalling North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers across a CESM2 Hierarchy
James J. Benedict, Univ. of Miami, Fort Collins, CO; and A. Clement and B. Medeiros
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 7B
Communicating Climate Change
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Markeya Thomas, Climate Nexus
3:00 PM
7B.1
Climate.Gov Social Media Engagement Strategy for Increasing Climate Communication and Dialogue
Tom E. Di Liberto, CollabraLink Inc, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Herring, R. Lindsey, and F. Niepold
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7B.2
How to Help Me Get Your Research Right
Kait Parker, The Weather Company, Brookhaven, GA
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
7B.3
Investigating Connections between the Need for Cognitive Closure and Climate Change Concern
Margaret Orr, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. Grundstein and A. E. Stewart
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
7B.4
Encouraging Planners and Decision-Makers to Embrace Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections for Adaptation Planning
Derek H. Rosendahl, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. M. Wootten, R. A. McPherson, E. Kuster, E. Mullens, and A. Bryan
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 25
Aerosol Approaches to Climate Engineering (e.g., Results from Climate Modeling, Using Analogs such as Volcanic Eruptions and Ship Tracks, and Development of Technology to Actually Implement Solar Geoengineering)
Location: 210C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Robert Dickinson Symposium; the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ.
Keynote: Simone Tilmes, NCAR
3:00 PM
J25.1
Current and Future Research Directions of Aerosol Climate Engineering
Simone Tilmes, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
J25.2
The North Atlantic Climate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering
James Hurrell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. Sun and K. Dagon
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
J25.3
An Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Thinning through Improved Integration of Satellite Retrievals and Climate Modeling
Yuta Tomii, DRI, Reno, NV; and F. Hosseinpour, J. Mejia, and D. L. Mitchell
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 27
Women in the Tropics. Part II
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chairs: Kelly M. Nunez Ocasio; Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President Jenni Evans

3:00 PM
J27.1
The Availability and Reliability of Precipitation and Zonal Wind Estimates over Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

3:15 PM
J27.2
Multiscale Nature of Tropical Influence on Precipitation Variability in Southern South America
Carolina Vera, Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
J27.3
Women's Careers Fostered by the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia—LBA
Maria A. F. Silva Dias, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Barueri, Brazil
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
J27.4
Projecting Regional Climate Change in the Tropics
Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX

Recording files available
Joint Session 29
Aerosol–Climate Interactions from Regional to Global Scale. Part II
Location: 208 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Aerosol - Cloud - Climate Interactions; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Yuan Wang, California Institute of Technology; Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles
J29.1
Temporal Changes in the Radiative Forcing of Aerosol–Radiation Interaction (Invited Presentation)

3:00 PM
J29.1A
The Impact of Boundary Layer and Free-Troposphere Aerosol Particles on Arctic Low-Level Clouds
Adele L Igel, Univ. of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and J. Sedlar, S. Tong, and L. Sterzinger

3:15 PM
J29.2
Synergistic Approach to Estimate Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing from Active Satellite Observations
D. Henderson, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and T. S. L'Ecuyer, A. Matus, and T. Takemura
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
J29.3
The Separate Influence of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases on Forced Changes in the Global Energy and Water Cycles
Damien Irving, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and J. Church, J. Zika, and S. Wijffels
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
J29.4
Background Conditions Influence the Estimated Cloud Radiative Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from Different Source Regions
Benjamin Grandey, Singapore-MIT Alliance of Research and Technology, Singapore, Singapore; and C. Wang
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Joint Poster Session 1
From Droughts to Deluges—Learning from Practitioners How to Value the Human Health and Societal Impacts of Hydrologic Disasters—Posters
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 25th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
Chairs: Hunter M. Jones, NOAA; Jesse Bell, NOAA; Amanda Sheffield, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Mike Hobbins, CIRES
Poster 540 is now Paper J33.4A.

541
Floods and Droughts Management: The Extreme Event and Its Human and Physical Impacts


Joint Poster Session 2
Middle Atmosphere Symposium
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Middle Atmosphere One-Day Symposium; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
882
Simulating Spring Final Warmings in Historical Runs of CMIP6 Models
Brent A. Mcdaniel, Kennesaw State Univ., Kennesaw, GA

883
The Response of the Polar Vortex to Tropospheric Temperature Eddies in an Idealized General Circulation Model
Thomas S. Ehrmann, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. J. Colucci

884
Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Vortex Intensification Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center
Craig S. Long, NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. H. Butler and H. T. Lee

885
Using Time Series Motifs to Examine Preconditioning of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

886
An Equivalent Latitude Formulation of the Stratospheric Northern Annular Mode
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

887
Different Predictability and Surface Impacts of Two Recent Split Stratospheric Vortex Events
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Z. D. Lawrence, S. H. Lee, S. P. Lillo, and C. S. Long

888
An Examination of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Characteristics and Their Relationship to Cold-Air Outbreaks over the United States
Paul Panhans, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang

889
Slow Eastward-Propagating Planetary Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
C. Todd Rhodes, Coastal Carolina Univ., Conway, SC; and V. Limpasuvan and Y. J. Orsolini

890
Trends and Variability in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex over the Last 100+ Years
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Jarrett and C. Narotsky

891
Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
Rei Ueyama, NASA, Moffett Field, CA; and E. J. Jensen, L. Pfister, M. Krämer, and M. R. Schoeberl

892
Modeling Upper-Troposphere and Lower-Stratosphere Water Vapor from the Monsoons
Mark R. Schoeberl, Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD; and E. J. Jensen, W. Randel, R. Ueyama, L. Pfister, and A. Dessler

893
Satellite and Ballloonsonde Observations of the Vertical Structure and Long-Term Variability of Moisture in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere at Costa Rica and Comparisons with Large-Scale Model Simulations
Henry Selkirk, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Vömel, R. M. Stauffer, J. N. Lee, D. Barahona, and M. Manyin

894
Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures from Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Time Scales
Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

895
Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Sampling Uncertainty in the SWOOSH Database
Ekaterina Lezine, Brown Univ., Winston Salem, NC; and S. M. Davis and K. H. Rosenlof

896
Creating Long-Term Climate Data Records Using Transfer Functions: Methodology and Application for SAGE II, MIPAS, and OMPS Ozone Profile Datasets

897
Homogeneity of Ozone Data from MERRA-2 and ERA-5
Peter Krizan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kozubek and J. Lastovicka

898
Zonally and Seasonally Resolved Ozone Response to the MJO and ENSO in Aura Satellite Measurements of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere
Olga V. Tweedy, USRA/NASA Postdoctoral Program, Greenbelt, MD; and L. D. Oman and D. W. Waugh

899
Ozone Variability and Trends in the Upper Troposphere–Lower Stratosphere Using Multiple Tropopause Definitions and Observation Techniques
Thierry Leblanc, JPL, Wrightwood, CA; and L. F. Millan, I. Petropavlovskikh, P. Hoor, G. L. Manney, H. Boenish, and A. Zahn

900
Insights into Tropical Ozone Profiles, Biases, and Uncertainties Using 20 Years of SHADOZ Reprocessed Data
Debra E. Kollonige, SSAI at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. Thompson, R. M. Stauffer, M. Allaart, and A. Piters

901
Validation of SAGE III/ISS Stratospheric Water Vapor
Sean M. Davis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

902
A Novel Method for Aerosol Product Evaluation for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE): Converting Extinction to Backscatter
T. Knepp, NASA, Hampton, VA; and M. M. Roell, L. Thomason, and D. E. Flittner

904
Upcoming Improvements to the SAGE III/ISS Retrieval
David B. Huber, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, C. A. Hill, A. F. Rowell, R. Manion, M. Heitz, C. B. Hulsey, M. A. LaRosee, K. R. Leavor, and M. M. Roell

903
SAGE III ISS Aerosol Measurements in the Context of Contemporaneous Satellite Observations

905
Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) V5.1 Science Data Validation: Ozone and Water Vapor
Susan Kizer, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and M. M. Roell, D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, K. R. Leavor, T. Knepp, C. Roller, D. Hurst, E. Hall, A. Jordan, P. Cullis, B. Johnson, and R. Querel

906
HAPS (High Altitude Pseudo Satellite) UAS for Atmospheric Research—Demonstration and Outlook
Ru-Shan Gao, ESRL, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Rosenlof, T. Thornberry, A. W. Rollins, P. Hall, and J. R. Walker

907
The Long-Lived Plume of the Pacific Northwest PyroCb Event: MLS Observations and Modeling of Composition Evolution
M. J. Schwartz, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. C. Pumphrey, P. Yu, and G. P. Kablick III

908
Carbon Dioxide in the Polar Stratosphere from AIM/SOFIE Measurements
Jia Yue, Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA; and Y. Su, M. Hervig, B. T. Marshall, A. K. Smith, R. R. Garcia, and J. M. Russell III

909
The Brewer–Dobson Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Qiang Fu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. H. White, M. Wang, and P. Lin

910
Decomposing the Brewer–Dobson Circulation Response to an Abrupt 4 x CO2 Perturbation
Andreas Chrysanthou, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock and M. Chipperfield

911
A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
Gloria L. Manney, NorthWest Research Associates and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. L. Santee, Z. D. Lawrence, M. J. Schwartz, and K. Wargan

912
A Diagnostic Equation for the Tendency of Lapse-Rate-Tropopause Heights and Its Application
Masashi Kohma, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Sato

913
Correcting a Fundamental Mistake in Radiation Physics Shows How the Middle Atmosphere Plays the Primary Role in Determining How Effectively Earth Is Heated by Sun
Peter L. Ward, U.S. Geological Survey (Retired), Jackson, WY

Handout (3.6 MB) Handout (4.0 MB)

914
Using TRMM-Derived Latent Heating to Estimate Momentum Flux from Convection-Induced Gravity Waves into the Lower Stratosphere
Chuntao Liu, Texas A&M—Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX

915
The Buffer Zone of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Formation and Variability
Aaron L. Match, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and S. Fueglistaler

916
Seasonal and Latitudinal Variability of High-Frequency Gravity Waves in the Lower Stratosphere
Erik Anders Lindgren, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri and R. W. Carver

917
Revisiting the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Hamid Alizadeh Pahlavan, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Q. Fu, J. M. Wallace, and G. N. Kiladis

Handout (38.7 MB)

Impact of QBO and ENSO in the southern hemisphere polar middle atmosphere


Joint Poster Session 3
Studies Related to Climate Engineering—Posters
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Robert Dickinson Symposium; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification )
526
Radiative Forcing and Stratospheric Heating by Stratospheric Aerosols: Sensitivity to Microphysics, Cloud Radiative Properties, and Radiative Parameterizations
John A. Dykema, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and D. W. Keith

527
Steered Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Aircraft and Operation Design, Economic and Environmental Impact
I. E. de Vries, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm, Sweden; and M. Janssens and S. J. Hulshoff

528
Evaluation of Tornadic Environments for Japan Using Multiple Data Sources and Their Potential Responses under Future Climate Change
Sho Kawazoe, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Fujita, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, S. Watanabe, and M. Inatsu


Poster Session 8
Arctic Midlatitude Linkages
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
624
Challenges in Simulating the Influence of Arctic Amplification on Midlatitude Extreme Weather
Judah Cohen, AER, Lexington, MA

625
Diagnosing Factors Influencing the Forecast Skill of Two Intense Arctic Cyclones in Early June 2018
Kevin A. Biernat, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

626
Impacts of Regional Sea Ice Loss—A Global Response
Rosie Eade, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and D. M. Smith, L. Hermanson, and N. Dunstone

627
Isentropic Analyses of the Polar Cold Airmass and Its Outbreaks

628
Large-Scale Midlatitude–Polar Flow Interactions Leading to Rapid Surface Ice Melt over Greenland and Sea Ice Volume Loss over the Arctic Ocean in June 2019
Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat and D. Keyser

629
Northern Hemisphere Continental Snow Cover during Transitional Seasons: Linking the Arctic and Midlatitudes
David A. Robinson, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and T. W. Estilow

630
Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on the Mean State of the North Atlantic Sector of the Arctic
Gina Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett, T. Mote, and N. Cartwright

631
Sinuosity as a Metric for Quantifying Tropospheric Polar Vortex Modification Associated with Arctic Cyclones
Mansour El Riachy, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

Handout (3.7 MB)

632
Unraveling of Impacts of Sea-Ice Loss on Extratropical Cold Winters
Yeon-Soo Jang, Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. S. Kug

633
Very Strong Correlation between the Northern Hemisphere Jet Response and Arctic-Minus-Subtropical Warming across CMIP5 Models
Nicholas Golden, Univ. of North Carolina—Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Scheff

Summer Arctic Cold Anomaly Dynamically Linked to East Asian Heat Waves


Poster Session 9
Atmospheric Rivers: Global Science and Applications
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
636
Lightning Characteristics Associated with Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the Continental United States Using the GOES-16/17 Geostationary Lightning Mappers
Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and F. M. Ralph

638
Aerosol and Hydrometeor Concentrations during Rain-on-Snow Events of Atmospheric Rivers in Northern California
Samuel Liner, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and J. M. Ryoo and S. Chiao

639
Atmospheric Rivers in An Ever-Changing Climate
Ashton Cutright, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

637
How Bad Could It Get? Future AR Flooding Scenarios in the San Francisco Bay Area

640
Investigating the July 2018 Mid-Atlantic Floods with NASA GMAO Forecast and Reanalysis Models
Gary Partyka, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Collow, M. Bosilovich, and J. V. Ardizonne

641
Subseasonal Forecasts of Water Vapor Transport Associated with Atmospheric River over the Western United States
Zhenhai Zhang, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and M. DeFlorio, A. Subramanian, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph


Poster Session 10
Communicating Climate Change
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
609
Preparing to Adapt: Are People's Expectations in Line with Climate Projections?
Carley M. Eschliman, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and E. Kuster, J. T. Ripberger, and A. M. Wootten

Handout (12.0 MB)

610
The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions for 2019
Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and K. Gleason, R. R. Heim Jr., C. Fenimore, S. Applequist, and D. S. Arndt

611
Developing Record Temperature Ratio Indices for the United States and the Globe

612
Sharing Native Wisdom and Climate Data to Enhance Resilience of Water Resources and Traditional Agriculture on Reservation Lands
Maureen McCarthy, DRI, Reno, NV; and K. Bocinsky, C. Albano, and M. D. Dettinger


Poster Session 11
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
613
The Influence of Wintertime SST Variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO Diversity
Boniface Fosu, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. He and S. Y. Wang

614
Reanalysis of the Extended Multivariate ENSO Index
Eric Webb, Univ. of North Carolina—Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and B. Magi

615
The Niño Dipole Index
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. Meyer and A. Zabaske

616
Unusual Anomaly Pattern of the 2015/16 El Niño Induced by the 2014 Warm Condition
Wenxiu Zhong, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and W. Cai, X. Zheng, and S. Yang

617
Influence of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole on ENSO

618
Toward Understanding the Suppressed ENSO Activity during the Mid-Holocene in PMIP2 and PMIP3 Simulations
Weipeng Zheng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China

619
ENSO-Induced GPP Extremes Simulated by the CMIP6 Models
Min Xu, ORNL, Oak Rdige, TN; and F. M. Hoffman, N. O. Collier, S. Mahajan, J. Mao, and P. Levine

Interannual Variability of Winter-to-Spring Circulation Transition over Southern China and Its Surrounding Areas and Mechanisms


Poster Session 12
Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Stephen Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University
620
The Internal Atmospheric Noise and Decadal Predictability of Surface Temperature, Precipitation, and Extremes
Wei Zhang, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

621
The Pacific Decadal Precession and Its Relationship to Tropical and Extratropical North Pacific Decadal Variability in the CMIP6 Models
Matthew H. Rogers, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado

622
Looking for Seasonal Forecasts of Opportunity in the NMME
Sarah Strazzo, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and E. J. Becker, D. Collins, and J. Infanti

623
Earth's Climate Variability over 7 Years from CrIS Brightness Temperature, OMPS Ozone, CarbonTracker CO2, and MERRA-2
Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, M. Feltz, H. Revercomb, D. C. Tobin, and D. Deslover

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 33
From Droughts to Deluges—Learning from Practitioners How to Value the Human Health and Societal Impacts of Hydrologic Disasters
Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 25th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 11th Conference on Environment and Health )
8:30 AM
J33.1
Extremes, Health, and Change: Developing a Collaborative Framework between Research and Management (Invited Presentation)
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Balbus and C. Dresser
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J33.2
Droughts and Health in the United States: An Evaluation of Knowledge
Jesse Eugene Bell, Univ. of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE
Recorded Presentation

J33.3
Advancing Drought Early Warning Systems: Using Recent Drought to Develop New Partnerships with Public Health Communities

9:15 AM
J33.4A
Rainfall as a Driver of Waterborne Disease: Ecohydrological Perspectives
Andrea Rinaldo, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J33.5
The Impact of Natural Disasters on Human Mobility and Health (Invited Presentation)
Caroline O. Buckee, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA

J33.4
Systems Responding to Disasters: The Intersection between Health, Extreme Events, and the Entities That Respond to Them

9:45 AM
J33.6
Drought and All-Cause Mortality in All Age Groups in Nebraska
Azar Mohammad Abadi kamarei, Univ. of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE; and Y. Gwon and J. E. Bell
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 34
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change, and Impacts
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin
8:30 AM
J34.1
Opposite-Phase Changes of Precipitation Annual Cycle over Land and Ocean under Global Warming
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and F. Song, J. Lu, and F. liu
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J34.2
Understanding of the Roles of Global Warming and Natural Variability on Monsoon Rainfall
Kyung-Ja Ha, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (554.0 kB)

Handout (3.4 MB)

9:00 AM
J34.3
The Bridging Role of Eurasian Winter Snow in the Relationship between East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons
Mengmeng Lu, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, MA, China; and Z. Kuang, S. Yang, Z. Li, and H. Fan
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J34.4
Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate
Salvatore Pascale, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. M. V. Carvalho, D. K. Adams, C. L. Castro, and I. Cavacanti
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J34.5
Model Performance in Simulating Global Monsoon Features: Skill Evolution across CMIP Generations
Luz Adriana Gómez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and D. C. Cruz, C. D. Hoyos, and P. J. Webster
Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.5 MB)

9:45 AM
J34.6
Sensitivity of Monsoon Precipitation on Local Evaporation and Large-Scale Circulations Using Cloud-Permitting Model
Sourav Taraphdar, New York Univ. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and O. Pauluis
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 35
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth System Modeling, Regional Climate Modeling, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle). Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Chair: Leo Donner, Univ. of Michigan
8:30 AM
J35.1
Evaluation of the Arctic Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6
Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Cassano, E. Valkonen, and E. N. Cassano
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J35.2
How Different Is the Arctic Sea-Ice Condition Revealed by CMIP6 Models?
Muyin Wang, NOAA/OAR/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland

9:00 AM
J35.3
Understanding Projected Uncertainties in the Northern Winter Climate: Role of the Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient and Arctic Sea Ice Cover
Ho-Nam Cheung, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, China; and N. Keenlyside, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, T. Tian, Z. Xu, Y. Gao, F. Ogawa, N. E. Omrani, S. Qiao, and W. Zhou
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J35.4
Antarctic Ice Sheet–Climate Feedbacks under High Future Carbon Emissions
Shaina Rogstad, Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA; and A. Condron, R. DeConto, and D. Pollard
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J35.5
Ocean Optics Can Modulate the Cooling of the Southern Ocean under Doubled CO2 by Affecting Mixed Layer Dynamics
Marie-Aude Pradal, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; The Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and G. E. Kim and A. Gnanadesikan
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
J35.6
Validating CMIP/AMIP Calculations with Global Precipitation Observations during the Satellite Era: Means, Trends, and Intensity Changes
Robert F. Adler, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. Gu
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 38
Studies Related to Climate Engineering
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Cochairs: Simone Tilmes, NCAR; Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ.
8:30 AM
J38.1
Meteorological Response to CO2 Sequestration and Storage in Antarctica
Andrea Orton, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and E. M. Agee and M. E. Baldwin
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J38.2
Climate Impacts from Explosive Volcanic Eruptions, Solar Radiation Change, and CO2 Increase
Wenchang Yang, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, S. Fueglistaler, L. W. Horowitz, D. Luet, and Á. Muñoz
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J38.3
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Progress Report and Future Plans
Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and B. Kravitz
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J38.4
Consistent Weakening of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in an Idealized Solar Geoengineering Scenario
Charles G. Gertler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. A. O'Gorman
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J38.5
Sulfate Geoengineering Impacts on Agriculture
Lili Xia, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and A. Robock, J. Jägermeyr, and S. Tilmes
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Exhibit Hall (Wed)
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 1
Ethics and Governance of Weather Modification and Geoengineering Panel Discussion
Location: 105 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
10:30 AM
PD1.1
The Framework and Management of a Multistate Weather Modification Agreement (Invited Presentation)
Mohammed Mahmoud, Central Arizona Project, Phoenix, AZ

10:45 AM
PD1.2
Governance Issues Related to Solar Geoengineering Research and Deployment (Invited Presentation)
Joshua Horton, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA USA
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
PD1.3
Values and Methodological Decisions in Climate Intervention Research (Invited Presentation)
Monica A. Morrison, Indiana Univ. at Bloomington, Bloomington, IN
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
Discussion/Q&A


7
An Engineer, a Climatologist, and a Social Scientist Walk into a Bar: Tough Choices on a Warming Planet
Location: 210AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum Sessions; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Moderator: Jamison Hawkins, Lockheed Martin
Panelists: Jill Engel-Cox, Lockheed Martin; Lori Peek, University of Colorado, Boulder; Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists
Recording files available
Session 8A
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events. Part I
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Christina M. Patricola, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Stephanie Herring, NOAA; Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS
10:30 AM
8A.1
On the Increased Frequency of U.S. Extreme Daily Precipitation Events (Invited Presentation)
Martin Hoerling, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. Smith, J. K. Eischeid, and X. W. Quan
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
8A.2
Anthropogenic Impacts on the Exceptional Precipitation of 2018 in the Mid-Atlantic United States
Jonathan M. Winter, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and H. Huang, E. C. Osterberg, and J. S. Mankin
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
8A.3
Dynamic Amplification of Extreme Precipitation Sensitivity
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. Nie, S. Wang, and D. Shaevitz
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
8A.4
Different Human Influences on the Joint Changes in Temperature, Rainfall, and Aridity (Invited Presentation)
Céline Bonfils, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and B. D. Santer, J. C. Fyfe, K. Marvel, T. Phillips, and S. Zimmerman
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
8A.5
Drought Attribution in North America
Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, EC, Toronto, Canada; and H. Wan
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
8A.6
From Peer to Public Review—Toward Operationalizing Extreme Event Attribution (Invited Presentation)
Friederike E. L. Otto, Environmental Change Institute, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 41
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth System Modeling, Regional Climate Modeling, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle). Part III
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Robert Dickinson Symposium )
Chair: Richard Rood, University of Michigan
10:30 AM
J41.1
Future Climate Projections in the French West Indies: Regional Climate, Tropical Cyclones, and Storm Waves
Ali Belmadani, Météo-France, Fort-de-France, France; and F. Chauvin, P. Cantet, P. C. Dutrieux, C. Decourcelle, A. Dalphinet, and P. Palany
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (789.2 kB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

10:45 AM
J41.2
Extreme Precipitation in the Present and Future Climate over a Topographically Complex Region in a Tropical Environment
Diana Carolina Cruz, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; and L. A. Gómez, C. D. Hoyos, D. A. Suarez, D. A. Hernandez, L. A. Sanchez, and J. A. Ospina
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J41.3
How Well Do CMIP5/CMIP6 Models Simulate Northeast U.S. Extreme Precipitation and Its Associated Circulation?
Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, D. W. Coe, and J. Polonia
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
J41.4
Attributing Snowpack Biases over the Contiguous U.S. in Four United States CMIP6 Models to Temperature and Precipitation Biases
Michael Brunke, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. S. Welty and X. Zeng
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J41.5
Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System
Eunjee Lee, USRA/NASA Goddard, Greenbelt, MD; and F. W. Zeng, L. Ott, R. Koster, S. Shukla, A. Hazra, K. R. Arsenault, and J. Joiner

11:45 AM
J41.6
Comparison of CMIP6 Historical Simulations and Future Projected Warming to an Empirical Model of Global Climate
Laura McBride, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and A. Hope, T. Canty, W. Tribett, B. Bennett, and R. J. Salawitch
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 9A
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events. Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Christina M. Patricola, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Stephanie Herring, NOAA; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites; Danielle Touma, ORNL
1:30 PM
9A.1
Attribution Studies of North Atlantic Hurricane Activity (Invited Presentation)
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, M. Ting, L. Trenary, J. P. Kossin, T. DelSole, and C. Li
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
9A.2
Understanding Recent and Near-Term Future Changes in Australian Tropical Cyclones
Cindy L. Bruyère, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
9A.3
Trends in U.S. Large Hail Frequency
Brian H. Tang, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and V. A. Gensini and C. R. Homeyer
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
9A.4
Signatures of Climate Change in Weather Metrics Important for Catastrophe Model Development
Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9B
Understanding Extreme and Compound Weather Events. Part I
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sonia Quiroga, Universidad de Alcalá
1:30 PM
9B.1
On the Relationship between Temperature Anomalies and U.S. Tornado Frequency
Kimberly Hoogewind, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
9B.2
Investigating the Geographic Controls of Severe Local Storm Environments: From Real World to Reduced Complexity
Kevin A. Reed, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and F. Li and D. R. Chavas
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
9B.3
Future Changes in Snowstorms over North America
Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and A. M. Haberlie and V. A. Gensini
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
9B.4
Examining a Synoptic Climatology of Northeast U.S. Snow Events
Tomer Burg, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 10A
In Situ Measurements of the Earth System
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Anna M. Wilson, SIO
3:00 PM
10A.1
Sector-Based Analysis of Atmospheric Rivers from Dropsondes
Alison C. Cobb, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and A. C. Michaelis, S. F. Iacobellis, and F. M. Ralph
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
10A.2
Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over Northern Hemisphere Land
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
10A.3
A New Method to Homogenize Atmospheric Radiosonde Daily Temperature Data
Junhong (June) Wang, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Zhou and A. Dai
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
10A.4
Identification of Physical Heterogeneities in Canadian High-Frequency Air Temperature Records
Ana Žaknić-Ćatović, Univ. of Toronto, Scarborough, Toronto, Canada; and W. A. Gough

Handout (1.5 MB)

Recording files available
Session 10B
Understanding Extreme and Compound Weather Events. Part II
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Sonia Quiroga, Universidad de Alcalá
3:00 PM
10B.1
Processes Determining Heat Waves across Different European Climates
Philipp Zschenderlein, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
10B.2A
Strongest MJO on Record Triggers Atacama Rainfall and Warmth in Antarctica
Roberto Rondanelli, Univ. of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Dr Johow, Santiago, Chile; and B. J. Hatchett, D. Bozkurt, J. A. Rutllant, and R. D. Garreaud
Recorded Presentation

10B.2
It's Not the Heat, It's the Humidity: The Changing Nature of Summer Hot Days

3:30 PM
10B.3
U.S. Cold-Air Outbreak of November 2014: Precursors and Predictability
Heather Archambault, Citadel, LLC, Greenwich, CT; and W. Norton
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
10B.4
Enhanced Risk of Multiple Breadbasket Failures Due to Amplified Rossby Waves
Kai Kornhuber, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and C. Lesk and R. M. Horton
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 50
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk under a Changing Climate. Part I
Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
Cochairs: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island; Glenn Hodgkins, USGS; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Art DeGaetano, NESDIS
3:00 PM
J50.1
Nonstationary or Stationary Frequency Analysis? (Invited Presentation)
Richard M. Vogel, Tufts Univ., Medford, MA; and C. N. Vogel
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
J50.2
Urban Flood Prediction under Heavy Precipitation
Xander Wang, Univ. of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada; and G. Kinsland, D. Poudel, and A. Fenech
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
J50.3
Hydrometeorological Conditions Preceding Extreme Streamflow for the Charles and Mystic River Basins of Eastern Massachusetts
Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, M. J. Collins, E. M. Douglas, and P. Kirshen
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
J50.4
Stormwater Management in a Changing Climate
Kenneth W. Potter, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 54
A Stitch in Time: Protecting and Promoting Health in a Changing Climate
Location: 153B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Conference on Environment and Health; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Jeremy Hess, Emory Schools of Medicine and Public Health
Cochairs: Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council; Hannah Nissan, IRI
3:00 PM
J54.1
Building Climate Change Adaptive Capacity in the Public Health Community
Jeff W Bethel, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
J54.2
Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Morbidity and Mortality of Respiratory Diseases in Germany
Andreas matzarakis, DWD, Freiburg, Germany; and I. Schlegel, S. Muthers, and H. G. Mücke

3:30 PM
J54.3
Rapid Environmental Change and Rising Vulnerability to the Climate–Water–Health Nexus in Growing and Emerging Megacities
Ali S Akanda, Univ. of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI; and K. Johnson, F. Nusrat, N. Torbick, L. Thiem, H. Bankhah, D. Gute, M. Barlow, A. Huq, and R. Colwell
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
J54.4
The Public Health Opportunity When Planning Initiatives to Rebuild Coastal Structures
Paula Schenck, UConn Health, Farmington, CT
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Joint Poster Session 3
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk under a Changing Climate
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island
Cochairs: Glenn Hodgkins, USGS; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ.; Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
1089
Groundwater Supply Vulnerability Analysis in the Atoll Islands of the Republic of Maldives in Response to Tsunami Events and Sea Level Rise
Abdullah A. Alsumaiei, Kuwait Univ., Kuwait City, Kuwait

1090
Using a WRF Physics Ensemble to Investigate the Behavior of a Flood-Producing Heavy Rainstorm in Current and Future Environments
J. Mike Madden, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and C. Jung, W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann

1091
An Event-Based Downscaling Approach to Modeling Extreme Cloudburst Precipitation Events
Geneva M. E. Gray, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and K. E. Kunkel, T. L. Spero, J. H. Bowden, A. M. Jalowska, and M. S. Mallard

1092
Periodicity of 241-yr Precipitation at Seoul in Summer 1778–2018
Jae Won Lee, KMA, Incheon, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. S. Kim

1093
Considering Uncertainty in Projections of Hydrological Extremes under Climate Change Scenarios in the Catskill Mountains Associated with Decadal-Scale Variability
Allan Frei, City Univ. of New York, New York, NY; and E. Owens, R. Gelda, R. Mukundan, J. Gass, and J. Chen

1094
Trends in the Spatial Extent of Daily Extreme Precipitation Totals
Art DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and G. S. Mooers and T. Favata

1095
Assessing Future Flood Risk oward a Sustainable City and Campus Stormwater and Landscape Ecology Plan: A Cambridge and MIT Case Study
C. Adam Schlosser, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Strzepek, X. Gao, M. Preston, and B. Goldberg

1097
Examining Climate Trends in New England and Their Impact on Riverine Flood Behavior
David R. Vallee, NWS, Norton, MA

Handout (3.2 MB)

1096
An Investigation of Flood Risk under a Changing Climate in the Souris River Basin

1098
The Historical 2019 Spring Flood Season and Central Region's ROC Response
Stephanie D. Sipprell, NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO; and W. L. Pearson and K. P. Allen

1099
Effects of Climate, Regulation, and Urbanization on Historical Flood Trends in the United States
Glenn Hodgkins, USGS, Augusta, ME; and R. Dudley, S. A. Archfield, and B. Renard

1100
Statistical Attribution of Peak-Streamflow Changes in the Northeast United States during the Last Century
Glenn Hodgkins, USGS, Augusta, ME; and R. Dudley


Joint Poster Session 3
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change, and Impacts
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
1158
Interannual Variability of Submonthly Disturbances and the Associated Tropical Cyclones in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Region
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan

1159
Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of the South Asian High and Its Role in Connecting the Indian and East Asian Summer Rainfall
Wei Wei, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China

1160
Relationship between Interannual Changes of Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley and South China Sea–Philippine Sea: Possible Impacts of the Tropical Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient
Yao Ha, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Z. Zhong

1161
Drying Tendency over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in Recent Past Decades
Ziqian Wang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang

1162
How Would the Asian Summer Monsoon Change with a Meridionally Relocated Tibetan Plateau?
Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and J. Wang

1163
Seasonal Dependence of Thermal and Dynamical Effects of the Tibetan Plateau and Their Modulations on Atmospheric Circulation
Yuting Wu, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang

1164
Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking in the Eastern North Pacific: Links to Extreme Weather in the North American Monsoon Region
Michael Sierks, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and W. Chapman, J. F. Kalansky, F. Cannon, and F. M. Ralph

1165
The Response of the Tropical Atmosphere to an Idealized Equatorial Continent. Results from TRACMIP
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and R. D. Russotto

1165A
A Lagrangian characterization of convergence zones in South America
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale and N. P. Klingaman

Variable-resolution Simulations of Gulf of California Moisture Surges in the North American Monsoon


Joint Poster Session 4
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
1166
Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting by Spectral Analysis of the Large Water Body Levels
Isabella Osetinsky-Tzidaki, Israeli Consulting in Climatological Projects and Practices, Bat Yam, Israel
Manuscript (398.0 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

1167
MJO Propagation and Its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation over the United States

1168
Predictability of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Its Associated Precipitation
Kelsey M. Malloy, Univ. of Miami/Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

1169
Atmospheric Blocking, Forecast Model Resolution, and Extreme Winter Weather Conditions in the United States
Kayla Besong, Univ. of Miami/Rosensteil School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

1170
High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Reanalysis Data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF Model
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå Univ. of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres

Handout (2.7 MB)

1171
Multiscale Interactions in a High-Resolution Tropical Belt Experiment and Observations
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh, C. K. Teo, and T. Zhang

Handout (2.6 MB)

1172
Designing an Optimal Strategy for GMAO S2S Ensemble Forecast
Anna Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, J. Marshak, and Y. K. Lim

Analyzing Apparent Temperature Trends in the U.S. Fifth Fleet Operating Area

Poster 1174 is now Paper J64.5A.

1175
The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales
Kai-Chih Tseng, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and E. A. Barnes

1173
Toward Improving S2S Forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Global Ensemble Prediction System (JMA-GEPS)

1176
The Opposite Trend of Summer Stationary–Transient Wave Interference in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres and Its Relationship with Heat Waves and Anomalous Tropical Diabatic Heating
Dong Wan Kim, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. Lee

1177
Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States
David W. Coe, Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and L. Agel, M. Barlow, F. P. Colby Jr., and C. Skinner

Handout (1.2 MB)

1178
Synoptic Analysis of Siberian Pulse Events
Michael Ashley Follensbee, Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, L. Agel, and D. W. Coe

1179
The Role of Convection on the Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation during a Regional, Warming Sea Surface Temperature Period: 1982–2017
Equisha Glenn, NOAA, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez, T. Smith, J. M. Galvez, and M. Davison

1181
Incorporation of Decadal Trends into the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) Method for Seasonal Prediction of North American Temperature and Precipitation
Johnna Infanti, NOAA, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins, S. Strazzo, Q. J. Wang, Y. Shao, and A. D. Schepen

1180
Subseasonal Predictions with NCEP’s Unified Forecast System


Poster Session 13
Earth System Modeling and Climate Change (e.g., Earth System Modeling, Regional Climate Modeling, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
1119
Evaluation of the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble for Climate Extreme Indices
Yeon-Hee Kim, Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology, Pohang, Korea, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. K. Min, X. Zhang, and J. Sillmann

Handout (971.7 kB)

1120
How Do MIPs Contribute to Scientific Reproducibility within Climate Science?
Matthew S. Mayernik, NCAR, Boulder, CO

1121
Southern Ocean Cloud Controlling Factors and Their Connections to Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP6 Models
Mitchell Kelleher, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and K. M. Grise


Poster Session 14
Identifying the Climate Change Signal in Weather Events
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
1122
Anthropogenic Influences on Severe Storms in the Midwest
Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

1123
Understanding the Intermodel Diversity Simulating the Year When the Warming Trend Is beyond the Internal Variability in CMIP5 Climate Models
Seunghwon Hyun, Hanyang Univ., South Korea, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

1124
Is Climate Change Increasing the Intensification Rates of Tropical Cyclones?


Poster Session 15
In Situ Measurements of the Earth System
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
1125
Deriving Complete Upper-Air Station Histories Using Sensitive Data Variables—An Essential Step in Homogenizing the Atmospheric Climate Record
Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX
Manuscript (184.6 kB)

Handout (14.1 MB)

1126
Snow Depth over Central North America: 1966–2018
Logan Soldo, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and T. L. Mote

Handout (2.4 MB)


Poster Session 16
Interbasin Interactions between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean, and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
1127
Westward Wind Changes over the Tropical and Midlatitude Pacific in the Past Three Decades Driven by the Interbasin Teleconnections
Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China

1128
On the Relation between the Boreal Spring Position of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone and Atlantic Zonal Mode

1129
Understanding a Nonstationary Relationship between PDO and IOBM in the Observations
Jin-Sil Hong, Hanyang Univ., Ansan-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

1130
Decadal Variabilities over the Tropical Ocean Basins Impact on the West Antarctic Climate
Song Chentao, IAP, Beijing, China

1131
Indian Ocean Dipole Modoki (IODM) and Its Responses to Diabatic Heating and Circulation
Debanjana Das, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA USA, VA; George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA USA, VA; and D. M. Straus and E. T. Swenson

1132
A Northern Hemispheric Wave Train Associated with Fluctuations in Bermuda High during Boreal Summer
Haochang Luo, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

1133
The Underestimated Responses of the Pacific Walker Circulation to ENSO in CMIP5 Models
Huang Aonan, Chengdu Univ. of Information Technology, ChengDu, China

1134
Tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean Warming Impact on the Subtropical High and Aleutian Low
Xin Meijiao, IAP, Beijing, China

1135
Tropical-Dipole Mode and Its Impact on the Global Climate
Wang Wenzhu, Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China

1136
Interaction between the Tropical Ocean and Antarctic Climate
Diao Siyue, Shenyang Agricultural Univ., Shenyang, China

1137
Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Recent Trends over the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere
Yadi Li, IAP, Beijing, China

1138
The Strengthening and Westward Shift of the Tropical Walker Circulation Driven by Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Forcing
Xiaoyong Li, Chengdu Univ. of Information Technology, Chengdu, China

1139
Interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Zhou Yi, IAP, Beijing, China

1140
Interactions between the Tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific on Decadal Time Scales
Cui Miao, Shenyang Agricultural Univ., Shenyang, China


Poster Session 17
Understanding Extreme and Compound Weather Events
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Poster 1141 is now Paper 10B.2A.

1142
Near 40 Years of MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC—Opportunities and Challenges to Supporting Extremes Studies
Suhung Shen, NASA GSFC/GES DISC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Ostrenga, M. Bosilovich, A. Li, and D. Meyer

1143
Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Strong Winds in Korea during the Recent 30 Years (1988~2017)
Baek-Jo Kim, KMA, Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. U. Kim and J. Shim

1144
Increased Heat Waves and Extremes with Associated Population Risk in a CO2-Warmed World
Jangho Lee, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler and J. C. Mast

1145
Understanding CWRF's Ability to Simulate U.S. Extreme Precipitation Characteristics
Chao Sun, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and X. Z. Liang

1146
Understanding a Regime Shift of Pure Tropical Night Occurrence during Boreal Summer and a Role of Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Eun-Hye Lee, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

1147
Decadal Change of Extreme Cold Days over South Korea for Early Winter
Woo Sung-Ho, Chonnam National Univ., Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Jee-Hoon

1148
Future Changes in Extreme Heat Waves in High-Resolution Time-Slice Simulations
Roger W. Turnau, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson, G. M. Lackmann, and A. C. Michaelis

1149
Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Dry and Wet Periods over the U.S. Great Plains within CMIP5 Models
Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and J. B. Basara, E. R. Martin, R. Mahmood, and J. C. Furtado

1150
Projection of Compound Events for Central/Eastern Europe
Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Martonvasar, Hungary; Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, I. Pieczka, T. Kalmar, and A. Kis

1153
The Use of the ERA5 Reanalysis to Identify Compound Extreme Wind and Precipitation Events That Are Associated with Extratropical Cyclones
Martina Messmer, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and I. Simmonds

1151
Examining Contiguous Extreme Events over the United States

1154
The Effect of ENSO Events on Tornadic Activity over the Spring Months of April–June in Dixie Alley from 1983 to 2013
Caitlin Lawrence, Carmichaels, PA

Handout (391.4 kB)

1152
Analyzing Projected Changes to the Seasonal Cycle and Daily Extremes Using the STAR Framework

1155
Bayesian Modeling of Central U.S. Tornado Reporting Rates
Corey Potvin, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, and School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, H. E. Brooks, and E. N. Rasmussen

1156
It's No Longer Your Grandfather's Winter: The Relationship between Changes in the Nocturnal Polar Vortex, Terrestrial Boundary Conditions, and Snowfall Climatology in the Urban Corridor of the Northeastern United States
Jonathan Forest Byrne, Emmanuel College, Boston, MA; and J. F. Byrne

1157
Changes in Snowfall Climatology and Storm-Scale Dynamics in a Warmed Climate
Rachel Maya Robinson, Univ. of North Carolina—Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and J. Scheff

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Networking Reception
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Centennial Celebration (Centennial)
Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Thursday, 16 January 2020

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 11
Interbasin Interactions between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability. Part I
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
8:30 AM
11.1
Contrasting Interbasin Climate Influences Driven by Externally Forced SST Changes in the Tropical Ocean Basins
Boniface Fosu, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. He and G. Liguori

8:45 AM
11.2
Interannual Variability of the Early and Late Rainy Seasons in the Caribbean
Carlos J. Martinez, LDEO/Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and Y. Kushnir, L. Goddard, and M. Ting
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
11.3
The Indonesian Throughflow: Its Place in the Global Ocean and Climate Systems (Invited Presentation)
Arnold L. Gordon, LDEO, Palisades, NY
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
11.4
Indian Ocean Warming Can Strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Shineng Hu, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and A. Fedorov
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 57
Heavy Precipitation and Flood Risk under a Changing Climate. Part II
Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Glenn Hodgkins, USGS
Cochairs: Xander Wang, University of Prince Edward Island; Ellen Mecray, NESDIS; Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ.; Mathias J. Collins, NOAA
8:30 AM
J57.1
Examining Shifts in the Timing of Peak Flows in Northeast U.S. Rivers and Implications for Changes in Future Flood Risk (Invited Presentation)
Stephen B. Shaw, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J57.2
Flood Rainfall–Streamflow Relationships in Two Contrasting U.S. River Basins
Erin Mary Dougherty, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. R. Morrison and K. L. Rasmussen
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J57.3
Runoff Coefficients of Floods in New England
Iman Hosseini Shakib, Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH; and A. Lightbody and K. Gardner
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J57.4
Changing Frequency of Flood and Drought on Rivers in the United States and Canada
Evan N. Dethier, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and S. L. Sartain, F. J. Magilligan, and C. E. Renshaw
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 58
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part I
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
8:30 AM
J58.1
Hybrid Prediction of Severe Storm Activity: Utilizing Weather Regimes
Douglas E. Miller, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J58.2
Subseasonal Winter Weather Predictability Associated with Single versus Multiple Wave Pulse Events and Their Impacts on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Jacob D. R. Ohnstad, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J58.3
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3–4 Reforecasts for North America
Katherine E. Lukens, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J58.4
Warm Pool SST Forecast Skill in S2S Models: Mean State Drift versus Anomaly Patterns
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall (Thurs)
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 12
Interbasin Interactions between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean, and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability. Part II
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
10:30 AM
12.1
Three-Ocean Interactions and Climate Variability: A Review (Invited Presentation)
Chunzai Wang, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

10:45 AM
12.2
Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution (Invited Presentation)
Yongyun Hu, Beijing, China; and Z. Hu and A. Hu
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
12.3
The Relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Tyler M. Fenske, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and A. C. Clement
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
12.4
The Strengthening of Amazonian Precipitation during the Wet Season Driven by Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Forcing
Wang Xinyue, IAP, Beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
12.5
An Increasing Trend in the Early Winter Precipitation around Japan and Its Linkage with the Enhanced Heating over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
12.6
North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases
Yun Yang, Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 64
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part II
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor
10:30 AM
J64.1
The Importance of Past MJO Activity for Empirical Predictions of Midlatitude Weather
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. C. Tseng and E. D. Maloney
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
J64.2
Sources of Tropical Subseasonal Predictability
Matthew Newman, CIRES–Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and Y. Wang
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J64.3
Evaluation of Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO
Kyle M. Nardi, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, C. F. Baggett, D. S. Harnos, L. M. Ciasto, and C. M. Zarzycki
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
J64.4
Improving Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks by Incorporating the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation as a Predictor
Cory F. Baggett, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, D. S. Harnos, S. R. Baxter, C. S. Long, M. L'Heureux, J. Gottschalck, and M. Halpert
Recorded Presentation

J64.5
Improving CPC's Week 3–4 Outlooks via Incorporating Extratropical Predictors and an Objective Guidance Blend

11:30 AM
J64.5A
Midlatitude Prediction Skill Provided by the QBO–MJO on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Kirsten J. Mayer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J64.6
Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Teleconnections—Empirical Model Compared to CFSv2
Stephen Baxter, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD; and J. Stuivenvolt Allen
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 13
Interbasin Interactions between the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean, and Their Impacts on the Global Climate Variability. Part III
Location: 150 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Xichen Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University
1:30 PM
13.1
Indo-Pacific Interactions through the Indonesian Seas during the Latest ENSO Event (Invited Presentation)
Dongliang Yuan, Institute of Oceanology, CAS, Qingdao, China; and X. Li, Z. Wang, J. Wang, Y. Yang, X. Hu, Y. Li, X. Zhao, C. Corvianawatie, A. K. Wardana, D. Surinati, A. Purwandana, M. F. A. Ismail, P. Avianto, D. Dirhamsyah, and Z. Arifin

1:45 PM
13.2
Tropical Interbasin Interactions and Their Misrepresentation in Climate Models
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

2:00 PM
13.3
North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water Controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Baolan Wu, Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao, China; and X. Lin and L. Yu
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
13.4
An Interbasin Teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the Subarctic North Pacific at Multidecadal Time Scales
Zhanqiu Gong, Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China; College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS),Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing, China; and C. Sun, J. Li, J. Feng, F. Xie, R. Ding, Y. Yang, and J. Xue
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
13.5
El Niño Pattern Diversity and Interactions with Mean State Trends
Danielle E. Lemmon, CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. B. Karnauskas
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
13.6
On the Role of the Indian Ocean as a Precursor of ENSO
Juan D. Mantilla, National Univ. of Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 67
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part III
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor
1:30 PM
J67.1
Detecting Intraseasonal Climate Variability in the Tropics with Legacy Satellites
Xuechang Liu, Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN; and P. W. Staten and B. H. Kahn
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J67.2
Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Affect Crop Yields?
Weston Anderson, IRI, Palisades, NY; and E. Han, W. Baethgen, Á. Muñoz, L. Goddard, and A. W. Robertson
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J67.3
Insignificant QBO–MJO Skill Relationship in the Subseasonal Reforecasts
Hyemi Kim, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. H. Richter and Z. K. Martin
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J67.4
Springtime Onset of Isolated Convection across the Southeastern United States: Insights Using a Monsoon Framework
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto Ferreira and H. Wells
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
J67.5
Physical and Dynamical Characteristics of Upper-Level Coupling in Great Plains Low-Level Jet Morphology
D. Alex Burrows, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and L. Bosart

2:45 PM
J67.6
Applying Self-Organizing Maps to Improve Predictive Understanding of Subseasonal Variability and Its Impact on Summer Droughts over the U.S. Great Plains
Rong Fu, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. zhuang
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Thursday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center
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