Session 3C The Use of Large Ensembles in Understanding Climate Variability and Change

Monday, 13 January 2020: 2:00 PM-4:00 PM
151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs:
Karen McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA and Justin Mankin, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH

Identifying signals in the climate system amidst the “noise” of internal variability is a central challenge for the weather and climate communities. Furthermore, understanding the uncertainty due to internal variability is crucial for risk management and robust decision making as we adapt to our changing climate. The proliferation of initial condition large ensembles has provided the scientific community with a valuable tool with which to address this challenge: by design, the spread across the ensemble provides a metric of the noise and the mean of the ensemble can be viewed as the signal. Large ensembles also have proved to be helpful testbeds for hypotheses and methodologies focused on interpreting our single observational record. Our session aims to bring together a diverse set of large ensemble users with foci on (1) the development and application of methods using large ensembles to parse the signal and the noise in the observational record, and (2) the use of large ensembles to aid in decision making. We welcome contributions from a range of scientific fields.

Papers:
2:00 PM
3C.1
The Use of Large Ensembles in Climate Model Consistency Testing (Invited Presentation)
Dorit Hammerling, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and A. Baker

2:45 PM
3C.3
Uncertainty Introduced by Internal Climate Variability in the Projected Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Crop Yields
Budong Qian, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada; and Q. Jing, W. Smith, B. Grant, A. J. Cannon, and X. Zhang

3:00 PM
3C.4
Planning for a Changing Mountain Hydroclimate: Using Large Ensembles to Assess Future Risks (Invited Presentation)
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, H. G. Chan, W. F. Cooke, P. Ginoux, S. Malyshev, S. Pascale, D. B. Kirschbaum, T. A. Stanley, and I. Velicogna
3:15 PM
3C.5
The Seasonality of Surface Temperature Warming: A Robust Comparison of Models and Observations.
Alexa Zabaske, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Nielsen-Gammon
3:30 PM
3C.6
3:45 PM
3C.7
On the Use of Large Ensembles for Studying Climate and Air Quality
Christopher W. Callahan, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and J. S. Mankin
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