Changes in Snowfall Climatology and Storm-Scale Dynamics in a Warmed Climate

As the Earth’s climate changes, the effects on weather will be an ever-increasing concern for society. While extensive research has been done to examine the effects of climate change on rainfall, there is little research into how snowfall climatology and snowstorm dynamics may change in a future climate. There is a more complicated interplay between the increased water vapor content of the atmosphere and changing temperatures with respect to snowfall. While fewer snow events may occur, there is the potential for much heavier snowfall rates due to a higher moisture content in the atmosphere. My research will take a closer look at the changes in snowstorm climatology, as well as the possible changes in storm scale dynamics in future snowstorms. I will use two 13-year simulations run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 4 km grid spacing for most of North America (Liu et al 2017). One simulation is representative of past climate, while the other is representative of the future climate following the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In this dataset I will examine changes in the length of the season in which snow typically occurs, changes in snowfall rates during snowstorms, and the frequency of snowstorms. After examining these and other large-scale climatological patterns, my research will focus on comparing present day dynamics of individual storms to the dynamics modeled in future storms, such as the contribution of diabatic processes and the characteristics of mesoscale snow banding.