Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers in the Middle East

For many regions of the globe, there are significant changes in future projections of climate. Change in precipitation is one of the most important potential outcomes of climate change because rainfall is a critical factor for the functioning of societies and ecosystems. In this study, we investigate future changes in precipitation for the Middle East region, using a suite of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 historic and RCP85). To disentangle estimated changes in average rainfall from changes in extreme precipitation, we also include a regional analysis on expected future changes in atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle, local weather, and regional hydrology, and are usually associated with extreme precipitation and flooding. The Middle East is a region that generally does not receive much precipitation, and this study will show case how and if this will change by the end of the century.