Encouraging Planners and Decision Makers to Embrace Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections for Adaptation Planning

How do we communicate the uncertainties in climate model projections to planners and decision makers involved in adaptation planning?

Many practitioners desire to use climate model projections in their efforts to adapt to a changing climate but are unfamiliar with or are confused by the uncertainties inherent in the projections. This confusion and concern can impede their proper use in adaptation actions, potentially resulting in maladaptive or ineffective outcomes.

An interactive training was developed by members of the nationwide Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network, funded through the U.S. Geological Survey, aimed at building practitioner confidence in using an ensemble of climate model projections in their decision-making processes. The training also was designed to help participants understand the benefits of working closely with climate scientists and boundary organizations to select the climate projections most relevant to their decision problem.

This training consisted of a short presentation-style introduction to the sources of uncertainty in downscaled climate model projections and a hands-on, small-group activity in which participants applied climate projections to a real-world management challenge. As part of this real-world challenge, the participants interacted with facilitators at each table who represented climate scientists with expertise in the climate projections and their uncertainties.

This presentation will discuss how the training was developed, how it played out in practice, and key lessons learned by participants and facilitators through multiple iterations since it was first developed in 2017. This role-playing approach to engaging planners and decision makers in the use of climate model projections provides a useful resource for researchers, practitioners, and communications professionals as they navigate the practical application of scientific research.