Is Climate Change Increasing the Intensification Rates of Tropical Cyclones?

According to a recent study by Bhatia et al. (2019), natural variability cannot account for the recent (1982-2009), observed increase in the highest tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates in the Atlantic Basin. These results agree well with the main conclusions of Bhatia et al. (2018), which demonstrated using the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) HiFLOR the climate change could significantly increase TC intensification rates worldwide by the end of 21^st century. The potential connection between climate change and TC intensification is particularly alarming because extreme intensification events are responsible for intensity forecasts with the highest errors and hurricanes that rapidly intensify before landfall cause a majority of the fatalities and damage from TCs.

To further explore the impact of climate change on TC intensification, the two observational datasets, International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Advanced Dvorak Technique-HurricaneSatellite-B1 (ADT-HURSAT), are extended by six years, and the analysis is repeated for the period 1982-2015. ERA5 reanalysis data is then analyzed to determine the trends in environmental parameters instrumental for TC intensification during this period. The more robust trends in the longer time series of intensification data and supporting changes in environmental variables suggest near-term policy and mitigation approaches could be necessary.