WRF Modeling of Historical Landfalling New England Tropical Cyclones: Statistical and Meteorological Analysis and Implied Predictability

In a continuation of the immediately prior poster presentation, the resulting tracks from the hindcasts were analyzed with respect to cross-track error, along-track error, as well as total track error. These errors were compared to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official track forecasts errors. Using a simplified method of determining the maximum intensity of the tropical cyclone (TC), each run’s intensity error was also compared. These predictability statistics were then refined based on numerous factors including formation region, environmental wind shear, and synoptic-scale pattern present (both upstream and downstream). Also investigated were the synoptic-scale changes in the steering patterns which guided the cross and along-track errors over the lifetime of each system run, helping to determine during which phases, and which lead times, forecast sensitivity is the highest and predictability is the lowest for these TC cases. The goal of the two studies is to be able to determine if the model predictability of New England TCs like Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) are typical of the forecast challenges for forecasters today, or outliers – such that forecasters can more appropriately interpret future real-time forecast guidance.