Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium

Program Chairs: S. Braun , NASA/GSFC ; Zhuo Wang , Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign ; Chun-Chieh Wu , National Taiwan University

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 13 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Session 7
Convection over the Maritime Continent
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University
2:00 PM
1.1
Early Observation and Modeling Results from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex)
D. J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. S. Reid, S. van den Heever, J. Mace, L. Di Girolamo, and L. D. Ziemba

2:15 PM
1.2
Diurnal Forcing and Phase Locking of Gravity Waves in the Maritime Continent
James Ruppert Jr., Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and X. Chen

2:30 PM
1.3
Numerical simulations of the precipitation along the coastal areas of Sumatera Island
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and R. Okugawa

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Session 10
Subseasonal to seasonal variability and prediction of tropical cyclones
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Suzana Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
3:00 PM
2.1
Sub-seasonal Predictability of a Genesis Potential Index
Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary and K. Emanuel

3:15 PM
2.2
The Relationship between Autumn Cold Surge Activity and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Alex K. Mitchell, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart

3:30 PM
2.3
The Impact of the MJO on NHC Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. J. Klotzbach and J. P. Cangialosi

3:45 PM
2.4
The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Joint Poster Session 1
Eighth Symposium of the MJO and Subseasonal Monsoon Variability Poster Session
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Tropical cyclone activity prediction on subseasonal time-scales
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, S. Wang, and J. Camp

The Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Impacts along the Pacific Coast of Mexico
Nicholas S. Grondin, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and B. D. Keim

Assessing PV Streamer Activity and its Relationship with TC Predictability in Subseasonal Forecasts
Philippe P. Papin, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds and M. A. Janiga

Tropical Cyclones in Current Seasonal Forecast Models
Daniel J. Befort, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and K. I. Hodges and A. Weisheimer

Large-Scale State and Evolution of the Atmosphere and Ocean during PISTON
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and Z. K. Martin, S. Wang, J. Sprintall, and E. Maloney

The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and the Convectively-Coupled Equatorial Waves over the Maritime Continent
Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Kiladis and J. Dias

Tidal Mixing Effects on Sea Surface Temperatures, Diurnal Rainfall and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent
John D. Steffen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA; and H. Seo

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 1
Tropical cyclone research and forecasting I: Prediction
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs: Eric Blake, NHC; Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC
8:30 AM
4.1
Recent Progress and Challenges in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Using COAMPS-TC
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, S. Chen, H. Jin, A. Reinecke, Q. Zhao, and D. P. Stern

8:45 AM
4.2
9:00 AM
4.3
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Next Generation Strategies: Reengineering Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS)
Dorothy M Koch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Silver Spring, MD; NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. D. Marks, E. Rappaport, S. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, N. Lett, and S. Upadhayay

9:15 AM
4.4
Tropical cyclone genesis in the GFDL FV3-powered global model
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and X. Chen, P. Ginoux, S. J. Lin, and M. A. Bender

9:30 AM
4.5
Development of a Convection-Permitting Air-Sea-Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

9:45 AM
4.6
A Probabilistic, Large-Ensemble Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Jonathan Lin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel and J. L. Vigh

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 2
Tropical cyclone research and forecasting II: Observation
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs: Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign; Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University
10:45 AM
3.2
An Overview of NASA TROPICS Applications and Early Adopter Program
E. Berndt, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, NM; and J. P. Dunion, W. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, and D. S. Green

11:00 AM
3.3
An examination of local shear, vortex tilt, and tropical cyclone intensity change using airborne radar observations
Michael S. Fischer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers and P. Reasor

11:15 AM
3.4
11:30 AM
3.5
Use of Targeted High-Altitude Dropsonde Observations from Unmanned and Manned Aircraft to Test Tropical Cyclone Operational Forecast Improvement
Peter Gerard Black, I.M. Systems Group, Miami, FL; and V. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, X. Wu, G. Wick, and R. D. Torn

11:45 AM
3.6
The Unique Observations of Hurricane Michael (2018), Theory for Rapid Intensification, and Implications for Future Research
Joshua B. Wadler, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, R. F. Rogers, B. Jaimes, L. K. Shay, and J. Zawislak

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Session 24
Women in the Tropics
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chairs: Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ.; Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ.
Speaker: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President, Jenni Evans

1:30 PM
J22.1
1:45 PM
J22.2
Contributions of Women in the English-speaking Caribbean to Tropical Meteorology Operations, Education, Research, and Applications
Arlene G Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago; and K. A. Caesar, A. Sealy, R. Mahon, and T. S. Stephenson

2:00 PM
J22.3
Leaving the tropics to study the tropics
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Session 27
Women in the Tropics, Part 2
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chairs: Kelly Nunez Ocasio, Penn State University; Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
Introductory Remarks by AMS President, Jenni Evans

3:00 PM
J25.1
The Availability and Reliability of Precipitation and Zonal Wind Estimates over Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

3:15 PM
J25.2
Multi-Scale Nature of Tropical Influence on Precipitation Variability in Southern South America
Carolina Vera, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

3:30 PM
J25.3
Women careers fostered by the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia – LBA
MARIA A. F. SILVA DIAS, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Barueri, Brazil

3:45 PM
J25.4
Projecting Regional Climate Change in the Tropics
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX


Joint Session 31
Tropical Convection-I
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ.; Torri Giuseppe, University of Hawai‘i
3:00 PM
J29.1
What does convective organization look like in a GCM?
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

3:15 PM
J29.2
Comparing Convective Self-Aggregation in Idealized Models to Observed Moist Static Energy Variability near the Equator
Tom Beucler, UCI, Irvine, CA; Columbia University, New York, CA; and T. H. Abbott, T. W. Cronin, and M. S. Pritchard

3:30 PM
J29.3
Cold Pools and the Organization of Tropical Convection in Global Cloud-System Resolving Simulations
Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Khairoutdinov

3:45 PM
J29.4
A simple framework for understanding slow, convectively coupled circulations
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Poster Session
Tropical Convection: Poster Session
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
On the Water Vapor Isotopic Composition of Cold Pools in Tropical Boundary Layers
Giuseppe Torri, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI

Observations of a Diurnal Pulse within the Cirrus Canopy of Typhoon Kong-rey (2018)
Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Improving Model Representation of Interactions Between Moisture and Tropical Convection
Brandon O. Wolding, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. Kiladis, F. Ahmed, E. Maloney, and M. Branson

Easterly Wave Contributions to Seasonal Rainfall over the Tropical Americas in Observations and a Regional Climate Model
Christian Dominguez, Centro de Ciencias Atmosfericas, UNAM, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Done and C. L. Bruyère

Tropical Cyclone Interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean
Jeffrey D. Thayer, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. Hence

Assessing Shallow Meridional Circulations over the East Atlantic ITCZ and West African Monsoon Regions
Lidia Huaman, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. Buttitta and C. Schumacher

Organizational Modes of Mesoscale Convective Systems associated with Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfalls
Sa Li, Peking University,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

Sensitivity of the Walker Circulation to Convective Entrainment in a Changing Climate
Margaret L. Duffy, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. A. O'Gorman

Diurnal Cycle of Coastal Convection in South China Sea Region and Modulation by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation
Weixin XU, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China; and S. A. Rutledge and K. Chudler

An Investigation of Dust Impacts on Local Convective Processes over Puerto Rico
Nathan Hosannah, CUNY LaGuardia Community College, Long Island City, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez

Thresholds for atmospheric convection in Amazonian rainforests
Mengxi Wu, Brown University, Providence, RI; and J. E. Lee

How tropical convection couples high moist static energy over land and ocean
Yi Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. Fueglistaler

Mechanisms Controlling Rainfall over Idealized Tropical Islands in Radiative Convective Equilibrium
Martin Velez-Pardo, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin and P. Molnar

Phenomenological Paradigm for Mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis in the Indian Summer Monsoon
Ayantika Dey Choudhury, IITM, Pune, India; and R. Krishnan, M. Ramarao, R. Vellore, M. Singh, and B. E. Mapes

Can Shifting Cloud Radiative Effects Influence Tropical Stratification Changes?
Timothy M. Merlis, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Li and A. A. Wing


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclones Research and Forecasting: Poster Session I
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Yuan Sun, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Z. Zhong and Y. Shen

Sampling hurricanes using a small Unmanned Aircraft System
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. H. Bryan, R. J. Dobosy, J. A. Zhang, G. de Boer, A. Aksoy, J. B. Wadler, E. A. Kalina, B. A. Dahl, K. E. Ryan, J. Neuhaus, E. Dumas, F. D. Marks, A. Farber, T. Hock, and X. Chen

Idealized Simulations of the Brown Ocean Effect- Sensitivity to Land Use and Soil Moisture Availability
Andrew Michael Thomas, The Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. A. Santanello and M. Shepherd

A Climatology of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Allison Lynn Brannan, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. M. Chagnon

Pathways to Tropical Cyclogenesis in Rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations
Jacob D. Carstens, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. A. Wing

On the Contributions of Incipient Vortex Circulation and Environmental Moisture to Tropical Cyclone Expansion
Jonathan Martinez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. C. Nam and M. M. Bell

Analysis of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Convective Cell Environments During Hurricane Harvey
Justin R Spotts, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski, S. Overpeck, B. Filipiak, and R. Edwards

High-resolution Atmospheric Motion Vector Fields of Typhoon Revealed by GF-4 Images
Jingsong Yang, Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Hangzhou, China; and J. Liu, G. Zheng, J. Wang, and L. Ren

Estimation of the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using Simulated Observations from the TROPICS NASA Earth Venture Mission
Erika L. Duran, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and E. Berndt

Application of Statistical Methods to Improving Model Predictions of Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones
Ivy C MacDaniel, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN; and C. M. Rozoff and J. L. Vigh

Characteristics of Upper Tropospheric Jets During Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
Levi Cowan, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

WRF Modeling of Historical Landfalling New England Tropical Cyclones: Design and Climatology.
Ryan Remondelli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

A Gridded Version of the National Hurricane Center Official Forecasts to Support Operations at National Centers and Weather Forecast Offices: Part II: Validation.
Pablo Santos Jr., NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and O. Ostwald, G. Demaria, M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, and J. Rogers

Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Idealized Axisymmetric Model
Rohini Shivamoggi, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Climate Change Influences on the Extratropical Transition of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Chunyong Jung, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Growing Representation of Women in NOAA Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Research: Part 1
Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; CIMAS/Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci

Effects of Hurricane Strikes on Neotropical Lizard Morphology
Colin Donihue, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; and A. M. Kowaleski

Probabilistic Prediction of North Atlantic Hurricane Track and Intensity
Christopher Dickson, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA; and J. Curry

The Influence of Coupled Model Sea Surface Temperature Biases on Tropical Cyclone Environmental Conditions
Hunter Tubbs, University of Maine, Orono, ME; and B. Lyon and S. J. Camargo

A Preliminary Analysis of the RIPA and SPICE Models for the 2019 Hurricane Season
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and C. R. Sampson

Real-Time Mobile Radar Hurricane Wind Retrievals During Landfall
A. Addison Alford, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff and G. D. Carrie

Reevaluating the effect of the Tropical Cyclone Environment on Intensity
Justin Palmer Stow, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and C. J. Slocum and J. Knaff

Application of a Sub-setting Ensemble Post-processing Method on HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System
Zhan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Wang, L. Zhu, B. Liu, K. Wu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 3
Tropical cyclone research and forecasting III: climate and theory
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs: Robert G. Nystrom, IMSG Inc.; Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing University
8:30 AM
5.1
Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warming Climate: Two Diverging Genesis Scenarios
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, and M. K. Tippett

8:45 AM
5.2
Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast: Anthropogenic Forcing vs Internal Variability
Mingfang Ting, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and J. P. Kossin, S. Camargo, and C. Li

9:00 AM
5.3
The Role of WISHE in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. J. Cheng

9:15 AM
5.4
The Importance of Radiative Feedbacks in Tropical Cyclogenesis
Allison A. Wing, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ruppert Jr., X. Tang, and E. L. Duran

9:30 AM
5.5
Formation and maintenance of tropical cyclone spiral bands in idealized numerical simulations
Diamilet Perez-Betancourt, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

9:45 AM
5.6

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 43
Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Prediction with Machine Learning I
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Cochairs: Jebb Stewart, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
6.1
10:45 AM
6.2
Probabilistic Rapid Intensification Prediction with Convolutional Neural Networks and HWRF
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. M. Rozoff and J. L. Vigh

11:00 AM
6.3
A Review of Support Vector Machine Performance on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction with Imbalanced Datasets
Mu-Chieh Ko, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Kubat, S. G. Gopalakrisnan, and F. D. Marks

11:15 AM
6.4
Combining Artificial Intelligence and Physics-Based Modeling techniques to Improve Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting
Narges Shahroudi, Riverside Technology, Inc. and NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD; and E. Maddy, S. A. Boukabara, V. M. Krasnopolsky, and R. N. Hoffman

11:30 AM
6.5
Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Jesse Schaffer, University of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber and C. Evans

11:45 AM
6.6
An Updated Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Scheme Using Machine Learning and Operational Forecast Data
Andrew Mercer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. D. Grimes and K. M. Wood


Joint Session 44
Tropical cyclone rainfall: physics, impacts, and preparedness
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the 34th Conference on Hydrology )
Chairs: Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ.; Rosimar Ríos-Berríos, NCAR
10:30 AM
J40.1
Characteristics of Recent Prolific Daily Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones Impacting the Southern and Eastern United States
Gregory W. Carbin, NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and A. Lamers and D. Roth

10:45 AM
J40.2
Variations in the Intensity and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation
Danielle Touma, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; and S. Stevenson, S. J. Camargo, D. E. Horton, and N. S. Diffenbaugh

11:00 AM
J40.3
Examining Storm Asymmetries in Recent Tropical Cyclones Using Polarimetric Radar Observations
Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian and C. N. Laurencin

11:15 AM
J40.4
Probabilistic Intense Rainfall Prediction from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using Convective-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation System
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones and P. S. Skinner

11:30 AM
J40.5
What if Hurricane Harvey Happened Here? – How Boston Wet Weather Scenarios are used for Planning Flood Emergency Response
Charlie Jewel, Boston Water and Sewer Commission, Boston, MA; and B. E. Vieux and C. Wilson

11:45 AM
J40.6
Real-time Analysis of the 2019 Mozambique Flood Using Satellite Rainfall anf the Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS)
Robert F. Adler, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. Zhou, G. Gu, and H. Wu

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 48
Tropical Convection-II
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State University; Lidia Huaman, Texas A&M Univ.
1:30 PM
7.1
Overview and Highlights of OTREC
Zeljka Fuchs-Stone, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

1:45 PM
7.2
900–700 hPa Static Stability Controls on Tropical Convection in Moist Environments
Scott W. Powell, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

2:00 PM
7.3
The Influence of Moisture on the Development of Tropical Deep Convection in High Resolution Simulations
Rachel L. Storer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. A. Schiro and D. J. Posselt

2:15 PM
7.4
A Simple Conceptual Model for Rainfall Over Flat Tropical Islands
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Velez-Pardo and P. Molnar

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 6
Physical parameterizations for tropical cyclone prediction
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs: Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR; Weiwei Li, NCAR
3:00 PM
8.1
Evaluating the impact of boundary layer parameterization on hurricane intensity and structure in HWRF forecasts
Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD &, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers, V. Tallapragada, D. S. Nolan, E. A. Kalina, M. K. Biswas, P. Zhu, F. D. Marks, S. Gopalakrishnan, and A. Mehra

3:30 PM
8.3
Microphysics-Based Bulk Parameterizations of Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes for Tropical Cyclones
Sydney Sroka, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

3:45 PM
8.4
The Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS): Results from the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Andrew Hazelton, CIMAS & AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and Z. Zhang, J. Dong, B. Liu, W. Wang, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, C. Zhang, L. Zhu, K. Wu, S. Gopalakrishnan, F. Marks, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Rainfall: Poster Session
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs: Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ.; Rosimar Ríos-Berríos, NCAR
Representation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in Global Reanalysis Datasets
Evan Jones, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. A. Wing and R. Parfitt

The evolution and extratropical transition of tropical cyclones during the 2017 hurricane season from a GLM, ISS LIS and GPM perspective
Lena Heuscher, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, W. A. Petersen, D. J. Cecil, and C. Liu

Extreme Rainfall in the Carolinas during the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Matthew (2016)
Scott W. Powell, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. M. Bell

Past and Future Rainfall from Dissipating Tropical Cyclones in Southwestern California
James D. Means, California State Univ., San Marcos, San Marcos, CA; WeatherExtreme Ltd., Incline Village, NV; and M. Burin and F. De Sales

Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model: P-Rain
F. D. Marks, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. D. McNoldy, M. C. Ko, and A. B. Schumacher

Exploring Precipitation Biases for US Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in ECMWF Forecasts
Manuel D. Zuluaga, CFAN - Climate Forecast Applications Network, Reno, NV; and V. Toma, C. Dickson, and J. Curry

Effect of High-Resolution Topography in Simulations of Hurricane Maria's Landfall in Puerto Rico
Nathalie G. Rivera-Torres, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and F. Judt

Investigation of the Dynamics of Extreme Rainfall in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Challenges Associated With Extreme Rainfall Measurement During Hurricane Maria
Scott Weaver, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD; and M. Dillard and M. Levitan

Land–Sea Contrast in the Diurnal Variation of Precipitation from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and Q. Cai, J. Fang, and Z. M. Tan

Evaluating IMERG during Hurricane Florence and BEYOND!
Ayesha Wilkinson, NCAS Howard University, Washington, DC

Estimating long-term tropical cyclone rainfall frequency - a physics-based approach
Monika Feldmann, ETH Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; and K. Emanuel, L. Zhu, and U. Lohmann


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclones Research and Forecasting: Poster Session II
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Evaluation of Independent Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (iSPPT) Scheme on Ensemble TC Intensity Forecasts Using HWRF
Xiaohui Zhao, SUNY, Albany, NY; University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Parameter Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones in NASA-GISS ModelE3
Jeffrey D. O. Strong, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel, S. J. Camargo, M. Kelley, and A. D. Genio

Enhancements to Cloud Overlap Radiative Effects for Weather Forecasting and Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Michael J. Iacono, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. M. Henderson, L. Bernardet, E. Kalina, M. K. Biswas, K. M. Newman, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, and Y. T. Hou

A scale-aware horizontal mixing length scale and its impact on simulations of Harvey (2017) and Lane (2018) in HWRF
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

The effect of convective momentum transport on tropical cyclones in the Canadian numerical weather prediction system
Paul A. Vaillancourt, Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and J. Yang

A study of the influence of evaporating sea spray on the air-sea heat exchange in high-wind condition of a tropical cyclone
Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov

Process-oriented diagnosis of tropical cyclones in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments
Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, A. A. Wing, S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, L. R. Leung, and M. J. Roberts

A Modeling Study of the Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Raindrop Size Distribution in Typhoon Nida (2016)
Wenhua Gao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and L. deng and Y. Duan

The Impacts of Uncertainty in Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange Coefficients on Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Intensification
Robert G. Nystrom, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, R. Rotunno, and C. A. Davis

Testing the DTC’s Single Column Model for Tropical Cyclone Environment
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. Firl, M. Ek, and J. Zhang

Evaluation of operational high resolution global ensemble forecast system for Tropical Cyclone prediction over North Indian Ocean
Medha S. Deshpande, IITM, Pune, India; and R. Kanase, R. P. M. Krishna, P. Mukhopadhyay, V. S. Prasad, and Y. Zhu

Vorticity Profiles of Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin
Erica Bower, Western Connecticut State University, Danbury, CT; and A. Owino

Re-evaluating how well tropical cyclone activity can be predicted over the 20th century from sea-surface temperatures
Duo Chan, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and G. A. Vecchi and P. Huybers

Potential sources of variability in the vortex precession process prior to the onset of tropical cyclone rapid intensification
Masashi Minamide, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and D. J. Posselt

Was the Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific Associated with the Anthropogenic Influence?
Xiaofang Feng, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Wu

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System: A Wealth of Data for Quickly Advancing the Physical Understanding and Forecasting of Hurricanes.
Svetla Hristova-Veleva, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, F. J. Turk, W. L. Poulsen, Z. S. Haddad, B. H. Lambrigtsen, B. W. Stiles, T. P. J. Shen, N. Niamsuwan, S. Tanelli, O. O. Sy, H. Su, D. G. Vane, Y. chao, P. S. Callahan, R. S. Dunbar, M. T. Montgomery, M. A. Boothe, V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, A. Wimmers, R. Holz, J. S. Reid, F. D. Marks, T. Vukicevic, S. Bhalachandran, H. Leighton, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. Navarro, and F. J. Tapiador

Synergistic Effects of Midlevel Dry Air and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Development via Ventilation
Joshua J. Alland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. H. Tang, K. L. Corbosiero, and G. H. Bryan

Tropical Cyclones Internal Dynamics and its Influence over the Intensity Changes: WRF Idealized Simulation in a Quiescent Environment and GOES-R IR and GLM Data Analysis.
Jhayron S. Perez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; Sistema de Alerta Temprana de Medellín y el Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá (AMVA), Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos

Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Probabilistic Prediction of Hurricane Landfall Winds
Jeffrey Miller, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Norcross, GA; and C. Dickson and J. Curry

Tropical Cyclone Activity under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations
Adam C. Burnett, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri, L. Silvers, and T. E. Robinson Jr.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional model (SAR) 2019 Atlantic hurricane season real-time forecasts
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, Z. Zhang, W. Wang, L. Zhu, C. Zhang, K. Wu, A. Hazelton, X. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

The Characteristics of Wind and Rainfall Variation of Tropical Cyclones during Its ET Process over the Western North Pacific
Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and J. Wang

Surface Wind Reconstructions for Hurricane Michael at Landfall with a New Parametric Model with Observational Optimization
Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Tolwinski-Ward, S. Lorsolo, and P. Jue

Track Centered Moving Grids for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Assessment in the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) Verification Package
David W. Fillmore, 3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, K. M. Newman, E. A. Kalina, R. G. Bullock, M. K. Biswas, J. E. Halley Gotway, and T. L. Jensen

Impact of the Diurnal Radiation Contrast on Formation, Intensification, Structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan, J. Fang, E. B. Munsell, Y. Q. Sun, and F. Zhang

Thursday, 16 January 2020

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast

10:00 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Joint Session 62
Women in the Tropics
Hosts: (Joint between the Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ.
Cochairs: Shirley Murillo, NOAA/AOML; Ada Monzón, CBM -- Chief Meteorologist, WIPR-TV and Univision Radio
Panelists: Kristen Corbosiero, SUNY; Arlene Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization; Lisa Bucci, NOAA/AOML; Yaitza Luna-Cruz, Jupiter Intelligence
Introductory Remarks by AMS President, Jenni Evans

10:15 AM
Panel Discussion

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Lunch Break (Thursday)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Thursday)