Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Next-Generation Strategies: Reengineering the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS)

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Next Generation Strategies: Reengineering Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS)

Authors: Dorothy Koch1, F.D. Marks2, E. Rappaport3, S. Gopalakrishnan2 , V. Tallapragada4, A. Mehra4, N. Lett5 , S. Upadhayay5

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) approach is designed to accelerate the implementation of promising technologies and techniques from the research community into operations. That approach has resulted in a 20% reduction in both tropical cyclone (TC) storm track and intensity numerical guidance errors during HFIP’s first decade.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act section 4, signed on April 18, 2017, required NOAA to develop a plan for the future direction of HFIP, detailing the specific research, development, and technology transfer activities associated with HFIP’s next generation of science and R2O challenges. To address the plan’s three objectives: 1) improving the prediction of RI and track of TCs; 2) improving the forecast and communication of surges from TCs; and 3) incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products., six key strategies were developed. The top three strategies are: 1) Advance the operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS); 2) Improve probabilistic guidance; and 3) Enhance communication of risk and uncertainty. The approach is largely encapsulated in a multi-scale, coupled HAFS modeling system and data assimilation package. HAFS will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. Investment in research advances is underway to develop the HAFS by modernizing the global prediction system based on the FV3GFS dynamical core while continuing research initiatives with the regional ensembles, telescoping two-way interactive moving nests, and probabilistic forecasts. This presentation will summarize the year 1 results of the progress made towards the next generation of the HFIP, including overview of HAFS first real-time deployment during the 2019 hurricane season.

1 Office of Science and Technology Integration/NWS/NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

2 Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/OAR/NOAA, Miami, FL

3 National Hurricane Center/NWS/NOAA, Miami, FL

4 Environmental Modeling Center/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD

5 Science and Technology Corporation, Silver Spring, MD