Session 6 Physical parameterizations for tropical cyclone prediction

Wednesday, 15 January 2020: 3:00 PM-4:00 PM
205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium
Chairs:
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, DTC, Boulder, CO and Weiwei Li, NCAR, Joint Numerical Testbed, Boulder, CO

Physical parameterizations play a key role in Tropical Cyclone (TC) prediction. The prediction of TC rapid intensification and weakening, eye-wall replacement cycles, precipitation, and landfall, among others, often show strong sensitivity to model physics. Additionally, the increasing resolution of global models poses a new challenge on the use of parameterization schemes originally developed for coarse model resolutions, while the scale-aware cumulus schemes have shown some promise in improving TC prediction.

We welcome papers on the sensitivity of TC prediction to physical parameterizations and studies on the evaluation of TC forecasts against observations. We also encourage studies related to the development of parameterizations for the seamless prediction in a unified forecast system and the challenges faced by modelers.

Papers:
3:00 PM
6.1
Evaluating the impact of boundary layer parameterization on hurricane intensity and structure in HWRF forecasts
Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD &, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers, V. Tallapragada, D. S. Nolan, E. A. Kalina, M. K. Biswas, P. Zhu, F. D. Marks, S. Gopalakrishnan, and A. Mehra

3:30 PM
6.3
Microphysics-Based Bulk Parameterizations of Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes for Tropical Cyclones
Sydney Sroka, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

3:45 PM
6.4
The Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS): Results from the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Andrew Hazelton, CIMAS & AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and Z. Zhang, J. Dong, B. Liu, W. Wang, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, C. Zhang, L. Zhu, K. Wu, S. Gopalakrishnan, F. Marks, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

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