How Adaptable Are Catastrophe Risk Models of Tropical Cyclone Wind Fields to Common Deviations from Idealized Hurricane Structure?

Catastrophe models for tropical cyclones have traditionally been based on axisymmetric parametric models of wind field structure. This simplifying assumption limits the accuracy of modeled risk in cases where storm winds deviate from idealized spatial hurricane structure. Tropical storms and depressions, as well as tropical cyclones that undergo extratropical transition can all still threaten life and property, but their spatial risk signatures may be misrepresented by industry-standard models. In this talk we demonstrate adaptations of a parametric TC wind field model that improve upon this shortcoming. Using land-based observations of disorganized systems across a spatial network of land-based stations, we demonstrate how a parametric wind field model with additional degrees of freedom compared to the standard catastrophe risk models for tropical cyclones can improve spatial estimates of local surface winds.