365468 Tropical cyclone genesis in the GFDL FV3-powered global model

Tuesday, 14 January 2020: 12:00 AM
205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Jan-Huey Chen, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and X. Chen, P. Ginoux, S. J. Lin, and M. A. Bender

We use the System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domain (SHiELD), a model which couples the FV3 dynamical core to a heavily-modified GFS physics developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), to investigate tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecast skill. An interactive dust transport scheme is used to study the impact of Saharan dust in TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. The ratios of hit events, false alarms, and missing cases in the 10-day forecasts of SHiELD at 13-km resolution will be presented. The TC genesis forecast skill based on the lead time will also be discussed.
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