Understanding Climate Impacts on Rice Production in China's Yangtze River Delta

Rice is a staple food in China especially in Yangtze River Delta. China’s rice importation is increasing since 2010, while its rice exportation is decreasing yearly. The total amount of rice importation was about 3 million tons in 2018, and the total amount of rice exportation was about 2 million tons. With rice trade deficit and the largest population to feed, China is facing more challenges in rice production. Climate drivers are key stress factors affecting rice production in the Delta because the region is vulnerable to unfavorable extreme weather like typhoon, flooding and heat waves. This study used 55-year records of annual rice production in province levels from Chinese Statistics Yearbook and daily surface climate variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity) from Beijing Climate Center to establish robust relationships between them. We found that rice production in the Delta has significant teleconnection patterns with seasonal climate conditions. These teleconnections must be associated with certain climate and environment processes that determine regional agricultural productions. Then we identified the starting and ending calendar dates, in which mean climate conditions of the Delta produce the peak interannual correlations (negative or positive) with its annual rice production in spring and autumn. The regional relationship represents the physical climate-crop interactions during the growing seasons and hence can be used to develop regression models for future projections of rice production in response to climate change. We further conducted an integrated assessment by linking regional rice production to national economic outcome, and improve the understanding of the managed and unmanaged agricultural responses to climate change. We will elaborate these results and discuss how they will support policy making and strategy planning for effective adaptation.