Toward an Integrated Urban Modeling Framework Considering Water-Related Climate-Induced Stressors

The cluster of excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS) aims to explore transdisciplinary human-environmental interactions guided by the overarching question: “Which climate futures are possible and which are plausible?”. Three projects within CLICCS focus on case studies for sustainable adaptation to climate change covering regions of different human population densities. One of them, CLICCS-C1, studies the coupled human-environment dynamics on an urban level, where climate change becomes visible for humans and where sustainable adaptation can be realized by local actors. Since extensive knowledge on temperature-related urban stressors already exists, CLICCS-C1 focuses on climate change induced water-related stressors. This project aims to develop a complex integrated urban system modeling framework that (i) allows scientific assessment of multiple water-induced impacts on the social aspects of the urban system and vice versa, (ii) is useable for developing sustainable adaptation scenarios, and (iii) provides decision support by explicating the trade-offs between alternative sustainable goals. A key feature of the modeling framework is the integrated approach considering the water-induced stressors, ground water rise, storm surges, riverine flooding, and precipitation-induced flash floods as well as the interaction with components of the social system. In the presentation, the research approach as well as first results will be presented.

Acknowledgement

The research is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy – EXC 2037 ‘Climate, Climatic Change, and Society’ – Project Number: 390683824, and contributes to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of the Universität Hamburg.