Examining the February 24-25, 2019 Wind Storm and Projecting Utility Outages in High Wind Events in American Electric Power

Synoptic-scale wind events are among the most destructive and disruptive weather phenomena to impact American Electric Power (AEP) transmission and distribution lines. 2^nd only to strong-severe thunderstorm events, high winds cause the most customer outages in AEP territory than any other weather event annually and usually produce the most widespread utility interruption. A high wind storm on February 24-25, 2019 impacted over 170,000 AEP customers in 7 states. From a total customer outage standpoint it was the largest weather event in AEP’s East Utilities since Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The meteorological setup was optimal for nearly every square mile of AEP territory from Michigan to Virginia to be impacted. Many customers were without power for over 12 hours. The effect on vegetation, even in a relatively barren state given the time of year, from the observed wind speeds was a major reason that this turned into an incredible outage event (Chen Chen, et al. 2015).

Thresholds for significant outages due to high wind speeds were reached and exceeded in AEP’s East Utilities during the February 2019 wind storm. AEP Weather Alerts were sent over 3 days in advance as AEP meteorologists recognized the coming utility threat in looking at the expected weather pattern. Also assisting decision makers is a Weather Outage Prediction Model that AEP is implementing for future storms. While not in operation prior to the wind storm, the model was run in AEP Ohio’s service territory using weather conditions, soil moisture and utility asset information from the event to help determine customer outage expectations and other interruptions to equipment. A joint venture from scientists at Ohio State University and the University of Michigan, this model in conjunction with AEP meteorologists will provide a more precise system that will impact the projection of future weather related outages including in synoptic-scale wind events.