11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: John W. Zack , AWS Truepower ; Jeffrey M. Freedman , Univ. at Albany, SUNY ; Justin Sharp , Sharply Focused LLC ; Eric E. Wertz , Radiant Solutions ; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III , SUNY Albany

« Collapse View
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 13 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 1
Grid Operations and Energy Weather. Part I—Forecasting
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Eric E. Wertz, Maxar Technologies
8:30 AM
Introductory Remarks
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1.1
Solar Forecasting for Isolated Microgrids
Gail Vaucher, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and M. Berman, G. Parker, and R. Jane

1.2
Estimation of Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecast Errors Using a Satellite and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

9:00 AM
1.3
A Multistage Regime-Dependent Machine Learning Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Naegele and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.4
Kuwait Renewable Energy Grid Operator's Display
Nhi Nguyen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Petzke, J. A. Lee, T. Brummet, G. Weiner, S. E. Haupt, B. Kosovic, M. Al-Rasheedi, T. Hussain, and A. Ismail
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.5
The Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Distribution in New York State: Results from High-Resolution Dynamic Downscaling.
Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Manobianco, D. B. Kirk-Davidoff, A. Gothandaraman, P. Beaucage, R. Perez, A. Dai, G. Xia, J. M. Covert, S. Chen, and A. Stevens
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1.6
Projected Increase in the Spatial Extent of U.S. Summer Heat Waves and Implications for the Energy Sector
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 2
Grid Operations and Energy Weather. Part II—Outage
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Robert D'Arienzo, IBM; Eric E. Wertz, Maxar Technologies
10:30 AM
2.1
Data-Driven Modeling of Utility Outages Using Weather Radar Observations
Michael Jensen, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and M. Yue, T. Toto, S. E. Giangrande, and A. Zhou
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2.2
Studying Tree Trimming Effects on Power Grid Resilience Using Weather and Outage Models
Peter Watson, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and D. Cerrai and E. Anagnostou
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.3
Examining the 24–25 February 2019 Windstorm and Projecting Utility Outages in High-Wind Events in American Electric Power
Marcus R. Smith, American Electric Power, Columbus, OH
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.4
BART—Physical Damage Approach for Power Outages Forecast
Juan Montoya, City College of New York, New York, NY; and R. Pokhrel, S. Del Coss, M. Yue, M. Jensen, and J. Gonzalez
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.5
Icing Forecast and Detection Operationnaly for the Province of Quebec Grid
Gilles Cazade, Hydro-Quebec, Saint-Basile-le-grand, QC, Canada
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2.6
Predicting Wet Snow Icing Risks on the Grid Edge
Jason C. Shafer, Northern Vermont Univ., Lyndonville, VT; Northview Weather LLC, Lyndonville, VT; and D. M. Siuta
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 3
Grid Operations and Energy Weather. Part III—General Grid Ops
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR
2:00 PM
3.1
Development of the Kuwait Renewable Energy Prediction System (KREPS)
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, B. Kosovic, G. Wiener, and M. Al-Rasheedi
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3.2
A Wind Extremes Forecast System (WEFS) for Outage Prediction
Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack, M. Berlinger, and C. Cheng
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3.3
Energy Forecast Demand Models and Weather Forecasts Used Operationnaly in the Province of Quebec
Gilles Cazade, Hydro-Quebec, Saint-Basile-le-grand, QC, Canada
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3.4
Probabilistic Predictions of Aggregated Wind and Solar Power at Shagaya Farm in Kuwait
Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. McCandless
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 4
Wind Forecasting. Part I
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC; Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Univ. of Colorado
3:00 PM
4.1
Improving WRF-Solar Model for Wind Forecast over Complex Terrain
Yunpeng Shan, DOE, Upton, NY; and Y. Liu and Q. Min
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
4.2
Mountain Waves Impact Wind Power Generation
Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and L. K. Berg, D. Chand, J. Lundquist, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, G. Wedam, J. Wilczak, and R. Worsnop

3:30 PM
4.3
Advances in Subseasonal Prediction of 100-m Wind Speed in the Western United States
Violeta Toma, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Reno, NV; and F. E. Hirata, M. D. Zuluaga, and J. Curry
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
4.4
Evaluation of NWP Models Using Scanning Lidar Measurements in Complex Terrain during the WFIP2 Experiment: Lessons Learned
Yelena Pichugina, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta, A. W. Brewer, S. Baidar, A. Choukulkar, B. J. McCarty, L. Berg, C. Draxl, H. J. S. Fernando, J. Kenyon, J. Lundquist, J. Olson, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, D. D. Turner, S. Wharton, and J. Wilczak
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 5
Resource Assessment. Part I
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management; Jeffrey Freedman, University at Albany
8:30 AM
5.1
Consistency of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment
Matthew Livingston, REsurety, Inc., Boston, MA; and J. Newman, C. Ostridge, and S. Hall

8:45 AM
5.2
Suitability of Reanalysis Data for Wind Plant Revenue Estimation
Jennifer F. Newman, REsurety, Inc., Boston, MA; and M. Livingston, C. Ostridge, S. Hall, and A. Perry
Recorded Presentation

Handout (12.1 MB)

9:00 AM
5.3
Characterization of Surface-Layer Turbulence Using Scanning Lidar Data at the WFIP-2 Site
Raj K. Rai, PNNL, Richland, WA; and R. Newsom, L. K. Berg, C. M. Kaul, J. D. Mirocha, A. Choukulkar, A. W. Brewer, Y. Pichugina, and R. Banta
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
5.4
The Cost of Shear Uncertainty in an Era of Higher Hub Heights
Daniel A. Pollak, REsurety, Boston, MA; and M. Larkin
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5.5
Solar Shape: An Indication of Future Solar Value
David Luke Oates, REsurety, Inc., Boston, MA; and W. Harrop and M. Putnam

9:45 AM
5.6
Improving the Accuracy of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) using High-Resolution Data
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and A. Habte, Y. Xie, G. Buster, G. Maclaurin, M. Rossol, M. J. Foster, and A. K. Heidinger
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 6
Resource Assessment. Part II
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine; Jennifer Newman, REsurety, Inc
10:30 AM
6.1
The Dual Angle Solar Harvest (DASH) Method: An Alternative Method for Organizing Large Solar Panel Arrays That Optimizes Both Harvested Solar Energy and Constrained Spaces
Jennifer Lynn Kafka, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and M. Miller
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
6.2
Climatology of Surface Winds in the Indonesian Seas Based on Satellite Observations and Reanalysis Data
Inovasita Alifdini, Hirosaki Univ., Hirosaki, Japan; and T. Shimada and A. Wirasatriya

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 7
Wind Forecasting. Part II
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Benjamin Frechette, Lyndon State College; Caroline Draxl, 15013 Denver West Parkway
7.1
Using High Temporal and Spatial Resolution Forecasts to Predict Ramps for the Wind Power Industry

11:00 AM
7.2A
Simulated Wind Farm Wake Sensitivity to Configuration Choices in the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Wind Farm Parameterization
Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
7.4
Wind Energy Forecasting Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization
Timothy W Juliano, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Jimenez Munoz, B. Kosovic, and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

7.2
Neural Network Approach for Wind Forecasting

11:45 AM
7.3
The Power Curve Working Group’s Assessment of Wind Turbine Power Performance Prediction Methods
Joseph C. Y. lee, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and P. Stuart, A. Clifton, M. J. Fields, J. Perr-Sauer, L. Williams, L. Cameron, T. Geer, and P. Housley
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 8
Offshore Wind
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management; Joseph F. Brodie, Rutgers University
1:30 PM
8.1
Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling for Wind Energy Applications: What Features of the Offshore Environment Are Needed for Multiscale Modeling?
Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic, W. J. Shaw, L. K. Berg, M. J. Churchfield, and J. D. Mirocha
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
8.2
Validation of Offshore Wind Fields Using Hub-Height Buoy Observations
Lindsay M. Sheridan, PNNL, Richland, WA; and W. J. Shaw, R. K. Newsom, and L. K. Berg
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
8.3
Status of Offshore Wind Energy Development in the United States and the Area Identification Process
Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Sterling, VA
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
8.4
Air–Sea Interaction Challenges for Offshore Wind Energy
Will Shaw, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. K. Berg, C. Draxl, V. P. Ghate, J. D. Mirocha, P. Muradyan, M. Optis, D. D. Turner, and J. M. Wilczak
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Panel Discussion 1
Policy Roundtable
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Moderator: Jeffrey Freedman, University at Albany

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 9
Solar Forecast Improvement Projects. Part I
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Eric E. Wertz, Maxar Technologies
8:30 AM
9.1
The Solar Forecast Arbiter: An Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting
William F. Holmgren, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. W. Hansen, A. Tuohy, J. Sharp, A. T. Lorenzo, L. J. Boeman, A. Wigington, D. Larson, Q. Wang, and A. Golnas
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
9.2
Enhancing WRF-Solar to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts under All-Sky Conditions
Ju-Hye Kim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. A. Jimenez, M. Sengupta, J. Yang, J. Dudhia, and Y. Xie
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
9.3
Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach
Jaemo Yang, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Sengupta, Y. Xie, P. A. Jimenez, and J. H. Kim
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
9.4
Solar Forecasts during Broken Cloud Conditions: Improvements in WRF-Solar v2
Larry K. Berg, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Y. Liu, B. Kosovic, P. Jimenez, V. Martin, J. McCaa, and L. Riihimaki
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
9.5
Solar Irradiance in the WRF-Solar Simulations Using a New Microphysics Parameterization
Xin Zhou, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and Y. Liu, W. Lin, S. Endo, and S. Yoo
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
9.6
Finite-Surface Integration Algorithm for the Forecasting of Cloudy-Sky Direct Normal Irradiance in the Circumsolar Region
Yu Xie, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Sengupta, Y. Liu, H. Long, Q. Min, and W. liu

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 10
Solar Forecast Improvement Projects. Part II
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jennifer Lynn Kafka, Rutgers University
10:30 AM
10.1
Solar Radiation “Anomalies”: Their Occurrence Frequency and Underlying Conditions
Yangang Liu, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and W. Liu and Y. Xie

10:45 AM
10.2
Probabilistic Forecasts for Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO)
Stephen D. Jascourt, Maxar, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.3 MB)

10.3
Attributing Causes to Biases in Shortwave Radiation from NOAA’s 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using NOAA’s High Quality Surface Radiation Measurement Network

11:15 AM
10.4
Improvements in the RAP/HRRR Modeling Systems for Renewable Energy Forecast Applications
Jaymes S. Kenyon, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, S. G. Benjamin, D. D. Turner, M. Marquis, W. M. Angevine, E. P. James, R. Ahmadov, T. T. Ladwig, D. C. Dowell, J. M. Brown, M. D. Toy, C. Alexander, and G. A. Grell
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 11
Solar Forecasting. Part I
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC
11:30 AM
11.1
MAD-WRF for Solar Irradiance Nowcasting
Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, J. Dudhia, J. Lee, and C. Snyder
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
11.2
Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intrahour Forecasting of Solar Radiation (PSPI)
Andrew Kumler, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and Y. Xie, Y. Zhang, R. Yang, X. Jin, M. Sengupta, and Y. Liu
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 12
Solar Forecasting. Part II
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Caroline Draxl, 15013 Denver West Parkway; William F. Holmgren, The Univ. of Arizona
1:30 PM
12.1
Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Modelsat Forecasting Solar Ramp Events
Laura Bianco, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, J. M. Wilczak, E. Akish, J. B. Olson, and K. Lantz
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
12.2
Increasing Solar Energy Forecast Skill Using a Mesoscale Ensemble
David M. Siuta, Northview Weather LLC, Barton, VT; and K. Cronin and J. C. Shafer
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
12.3
Aerosol Optical Depth Forecasts for Solar Irradiance Forecasting in the Middle East
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. A. Jimenez, C. Gueymard, G. Thompson, B. Kosovic, S. Basart, C. Pérez García-Pando, and M. Al-Rasheedi
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
12.4
Improvement of Aerosol Optical Depth Data for Localized Insolation Forecasting
Chin-An Lin, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and Y. Zhang, G. A. Heath, D. Henze, and M. Sengupta
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (543.7 kB)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 13
Forecast Evaluation and General Energy Topics
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine; Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Univ. of Colorado
3:00 PM
13.1
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Decision Support Tools
Eric P. Grimit, Vaisala, Inc., Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
13.2
Maximization of the Value of Intraday Wind and Solar Forecasts for an Island Grid System via Customized Forecasts and Evaluation Metrics
John Zack, AWS Truepower, a UL Company, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
13.3
Error Quantification of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model in Dynamic Line Rating
Kenneth R. Fenton Jr., NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin, T. McJunkin, A. Abboud, J. P. Lehmer, J. Gentle, and D. D. Turner
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
13.4
Siting Solar Farms—Unique Opportunities beyond the Sunny Desert
Eric E. Wertz, Maxar Technologies, Gaithersburg, MD; and D. Getman
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 1
Posters
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
1446
Fractal Characteristics of Tall-Tower Wind Data in Missouri
Sarah Balkissoon, Univ. of Missouri, MO

1447
Does Rotor-Equivalent Wind Speed Differ from Hub-Height Wind Speed? Observations from Complex Terrain during WFIP2

1448
Analog-Based Analysis of Nonconvective High-Wind Events in the Mid–Mississippi River Valley
Alyssa N. Otten, Saint Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and C. E. Graves, F. H. Glass, M. F. Britt, and J. E. Sieveking

Poster 1450 has been moved. New paper number is 7.2A.

1449
Impact of El Niño and Warm PDO on Summertime Wind in the Pacific Northwest

1451
An Evaluation of Vertical Profiles of Wind Speed and Direction within the Turbine Rotor Layer from Remote Sensors as Compared to Hub-Height Measurements from Nacelle Mounted Sonic Anemometers.
Brandi J. McCarty, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, M. C. Macduff, S. Baidar, R. M. Banta, W. A. Brewer, A. M. Weickmann, and S. P. Sandberg

1452
A New Satellite-Derived Irradiance Algorithm for the GOES-R Generation
Antonio T. Lorenzo, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and T. M. Harty and W. F. Holmgren

Handout (6.2 MB)

1454
Rotor-Area Wind Characteristics at the Eolos Wind Research Station in Southeastern Minnesota, USA
Jacob Coburn, Univ. of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN; and K. Klink

1455
Assessment of the Offshore Wind Potential of the Colombian Caribbean Sea in Scenarios of Climate Variability and Climate Change.
Jorge A. Echeverri, National Univ. of Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos

1456
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Studies in Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences in Support of Offshore Energy Development
Angel McCoy, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Sterling, VA

1453
Sensitivity Analysis of Mesoscale-Coupled Large Eddy Simulations for Wind Energy Applications

1457
Improving Coastal and Valley Fog Forecasts by Assimilating Boundary Layer Observations
Daniel B Kirk-Davidoff, EPRI, Albany, NY; and K. Craig, A. Tuohy, and Q. Wang

1458
Using GEOS-5 Forecast Products to Represent Aerosol Characteristics in Operational Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasts, for the Southwest United States
Patrick Bunn, Tucson, AZ; and W. F. Holmgren, M. Leuthold, and C. L. Castro

1459
Solar Irradiance Forecasting under Cloudy Conditions Based on Statistical and Machine Learning Models
Weijia Liu, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Liu, S. Yoo, Y. Xie, and X. Zhou

1460
Doppler Wind Lidar Observations of Shallow Cumulus Clouds
Sunil Baidar, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, W. A. Brewer, R. M. Banta, Y. L. Pichugina, W. M. Angevine, J. S. Kenyon, J. B. Olson, and D. D. Turner

1461
Probabilistic Cloud Cover Forecasting from an Ensemble
Travis M. Harty, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. McKinley, W. F. Holmgren, and A. T. Lorenzo

1462
Applying the Asian-Bering-North American Teleconnection to Analyze Heating and Cooling Degree Days over the United States.
Alan Joseph Marinaro, MAXAR, Gaithersburg, MD

1463
Weather Effects on the Efiiciency of Photovoltaic Systems in Medellín, Colombia
Nathalia Correa Sánchez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; and O. J. Mesa Sánchez and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz

Handout (80.7 MB)

1464
Studying the Impacts of Climate Change on the Building Design Conditions in Madison, Wisconsin
Gesangyangji Gesangyangji, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Handout (4.9 MB)

1465
Predicting the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Thunderstorm-Induced Power Outages
Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Centennial Celebration (Centennial)
Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Thursday, 16 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 14
Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support, Teleconnections, and General Energy Topics. Part I
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Robert D'Arienzo, IBM; Ted Zarras, Priogen
8:30 AM
14.1
Multicriteria Strategic Planning for Climate Risk and Adaptation in the Electric Power Industry
John A. Dutton, Prescient Weather Ltd. and ClimBiz Ltd., State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and R. P. James
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
14.2
Implementation of AI-Infused Outage Management Solutions for Weather and Utility Applications
Robert D'Arienzo, IBM, New York, NY; and R. Boucher, C. Gillespie, and R. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
14.3
How Teleconnections Influence Wind Speed and Power Variability in the Upper Midwest through Changing Synoptic Regimes
Jacob Coburn, Univ. of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
14.4
The Variability of the Wind Resource in the Caribbean and Associated Teleconnections
Lawrence Pologne, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, St. James, Barbados; and L. A. Nurse, J. L. Charlery, and D. Farrell
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 15
Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support, Teleconnections, and General Energy Topics. Part II
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Rob D'Arienzo, Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO); Ted Zarras, Priogen
10:30 AM
15.1
Leveraging Wind and Sunlight Resource Diversity to Meet Regional Clean Energy Goals
Austin W. Thomas, Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT; and P. Racherla
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
15.2
Evaluating Weather Forecasts in Terms of Two Measures of How Accurately a Set of Future Events Have Been Predicted—Intensity and Timing
Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (268.5 kB)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 65
Machine Learning Applications in the Energy Sector
Location: 156A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Events )
Cochairs: Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR; Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR
10:30 AM
J65.1
Machine and Deep Learning Methods for Fault Detection and Classification in Photovoltaic Modules
Warren James Brettenny, Nelson Mandela Univ., Port Elizabeth, South Africa; and C. W. Dunderdale, C. M. Clohessy, E. E. van Dyk, and G. D. Sharp

10:45 AM
J65.2
New Developments in Weather-Based Power Outage Prediction Modeling
Diego Cerrai, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and P. Watson, M. Koukoula, F. Yang, and E. Anagnostou
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J65.3
Performance of Alternate Machine Learning Configurations for the 0–120-h Prediction of Extreme Wind Gusts for Outage Management in the Consolidated Edison Company of the New York Service Area
John W. Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and J. M. Freedman, M. Berlinger, and C. Cheng
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
J65.4
Comparing Implicit versus Explicit Regime Identification in Machine Learning Approaches to Short-Range Solar Power Forecasting
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Dettling and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J65.5
Optimizing Training Windows for Wind and Solar Generation Forecasting
Daniel B Kirk-Davidoff, EPRI, Albany, NY; and P. Tardaguila and T. Melino
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J65.6
A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Power in a Full-Scale Wind Farm
Rajitha Meka, Univ. of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX; and K. Bhaganagar and A. Alaeddini
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 16
General Wind Energy Topics
Location: 256 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY
1:30 PM
16.1
Evaluating Public Attitudes about Wind Energy Using a Spatial Proximity Analysis
Kristy C. Carter, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and D. A. M. Peterson and D. M. Wald
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
16.2
Parametric and Structural Sensitivities of Turbine‐Height Wind Speeds in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Yun Qian, PNNL, Richland, WA; and B. Yang, L. K. Berg, C. Wang, Z. Hou, Y. Liu, H. Shin, S. Y. Hong, and M. Pekour
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
16.3
The "P99 Hedge" That Wasn't: An Empirical Analysis of Fixed Volume Energy Hedges in Texas
Adam Reeve, REsurety, Inc., Boston, MA
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
16.4
Should Wind Turbines Rotate in the Opposite Direction in Stable Stratification in the Northern Hemisphere?
Antonia Englberger, German Aerospace Center, Wessling, Germany; and J. K. Lundquist
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
16.5
Wind Farms Can Modify Thunderstorm Outflow Boundaries
Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
16.6
Wind Veer and Wind Shear Affect Wind Turbine Performance
Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Thursday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center
« Collapse View