Improving WRF-Solar Model for Wind Forecast over Complex Terrain

Significant uncertainty of wind energy forecast lies in the representation of turbulent and transport processes in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), radiation transfer and their interactions, esp. over complex terrains like the New York state where diverse landscapes (e.g., mountains, lakes, cities, rivers, and sea) coexist. Here we aim to develop a novel wind forecast system by upgrading the current solar energy forecast extension of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Solar) from WRF version 3.6 to version 4.1.1. In particular, we will implement and test a new unified boundary layer and shallow convection parameterization based on eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) approach, which holds potentials to improving wind forecast, along with other PBL processes and convective clouds. Furthermore, the modified vertical transport of water vapor will feedback to the occurrence of cloud and subsequently to the perturbation of solar irradiance. Thus, the combined improvements in solar radiation in the current WRF-Solar (e.g., the prediction of direct irradiance and diffuse irradiance) and the proposed upgrades of PBL and convective processes likely advances forecast of both wind and solar energies. Future development of the EDMF scheme will include improving the parameterization of surface momentum and turbulent dissipation rate. Numerical forecast and observational evaluation against measurements will be conducted, at selected hot spots of wind energy over the New York State, assessing the accuracy and reliability of the new forecasting system for wind farms (onshore and offshore).