Estimation of Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecast Errors Using a Satellite and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

A large number of photovoltaic (PV) power systems have been adopted in Japan (approximately 48 GW in 2018). Information of regional PV power forecast errors is important for energy management system (EMS). In Japan, PV power generation data from residential and/or ground‐mounted PV systems, and larger MW‐scale PV plants have not been opened enough from power grid utility.

In order to realize adequate safety control of EMS under high PV‐penetration, it is important to fully understand the temporal and spatial variations associated with PV power forecast errors.

In this study, we estimated the PV power forecast errors for a regional area (ie, municipality) in terms of PV power installation capacity and satellite‐estimated PV power and a numerical weather prediction model.

The satellite‐derived regionally integrated PV power estimations were validated with reference data provided by electric power utility (Ohtake et al. 2018) *. The validation results showed that these estimations were comparable to the reference data, provided by the Kyushu Electric Power Company Inc. (Kyushu) and the Tokyo Electric Power Company Inc. (TEPCO).

Furthermore, in consideration of future PV power penetration scenarios, it is suggested that PV power in excess of regional power demands could be generated under the same weather conditions. These forecast error data is going to be usefule for various EMS (battery systems, electric vehicle and aggregation of local area etc.)

*Ohtake H, Uno F, Oozeki T, Yamada Y, Takenaka H, Nakajima TY. Estimation of satellite- derived regional photovoltaic power generation using a satellite- estimated solar radiation data. Energy Sci Eng. 2018;6:570‐583.