Error Quantification of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model in Dynamic Line Rating

Ratings for long distance power transmission lines are typically set based on seasonal extreme values of environmental variables. Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) based on weather forecasts of temperature, insolation, and wind speed and direction could help utilities to take advantage of the additional capacity present in power transmission lines without exceeding safety margins.

This presentation provides an update on the ongoing collaboration between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to apply DLR to power grids. Specifically, this update looks at errors in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model forecasts of temperature, solar flux, and wind speed and direction across the Western Interconnect. The errors are stratified by terrain type, line azimuth, time of day, forecast hour, and prevailing wind direction. The impact of these errors to uncertainty in DLR forecasts is discussed and recommendations to maintain safe line operating conditions are provided.