Where Are We and What's Next: A Systematic Review of Research on Communicating Probabilistic Weather and Climate Information

While NWS has invested in a number of social and behavioral science studies relating to the conveyance of uncertainty and probabilistic forecasts, there is no summary of relevant findings, current best practices or research guided recommendations regarding the communication of uncertainty/probabilistic information. NWS products and services convey uncertainty and probability in different ways in large part due to different reference classes, varying calculated methodologies, as well as different stakeholder needs. Forecasters communicate uncertainty and probabilistic information for extreme events and day-to-day typical weather, for all hazards, and a myriad of impacts. Due to the integral part that uncertainty and probabilistic information plays in forecasting and communication, the NWS is in need of understanding the state of knowledge regarding the communication of uncertainty and probabilistic information. In this project, we conduct a systematic review of existing research to provide a baseline assessment of current knowledge, identify gaps, and note priorities for future research. This review provides the basis for developing research guided recommendations to assist in communicating uncertainty and probabilities.