An Impact-Based Decision Support Service Common Operating Picture for the Record-Breaking Cold in January 2019

A record breaking cold air mass spilled into the central United States between January 29th and February 1st, 2019. This anomalous system broke 114 climate records across 10 different states and lead to 24 cold weather-related fatalities across the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Central Region. Widespread transportation impacts were observed in the rail and air sectors, as well as on the roads, leading to an impact on commerce. Warming centers were set-up across 7 different states and the United States Postal Service suspended postal delivery across Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

Ahead of the event, signals were noticed almost 2-3 weeks out as the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center began highlighting the potential for a significant cold stretch. Collaboration between the NWS’s National Centers, the Central Regional Regional Operation Center and local Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) occurred a week before the event to establish a common operating plan and Impact Based Decision Support Service (IDSS) tools that could be utilized. WFOs began notifying partners when confidence increased and highlighted the potential for the record breaking cold. This resulted in core partners taking action early, moving resources and also helped spread the message of the upcoming dangerous cold. This event also lead to new partnerships for the local offices which helped develop new tools and messaging.

This presentation will demonstrate a common operating picture of IDSS for this record breaking cold spell. It will discuss the extended forecast and how the NWS accurately recognized the pattern for this impactful weather event. It will also examine how the establishment of a common operating picture between NWS National Centers, Central Region and local WFOs resulted in a common message. Lastly, we will take a look at the actions that local forecast offices took leading up to the record breaking event and the tools they provided to core partners.