A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach to Inform Competitive Grant Proposal Selection using the NOAA Value Tree

The Office of Weather and Air Quality Research (OWAQ) Programs, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), annually offers substantial competitive grants for various research objectives and key themes. This program is focused on improving NOAA’s understanding and ultimately its weather and water forecasting services through engagement with the external scientific community on key science gaps of mutual interest through funded grant opportunities. In order to enhance the objectivity of OWAQ's review of competitive proposal submissions, we have developed a multicriteria decision analysis approach to inform the selection of proposals for investment consideration. Our objective is to use the NOAA Value Tree's preference for capability enhancements to best meet mission services identified in grant proposal requests. Multiple criteria include criteria for success and criteria for relevance to grant objectives. The method uses a weighting scheme for the criteria and a scaling scheme that assesses a SME-defined likelihood of success score against the SME-weighted criteria and the potential impact to the NOAA Value Tree.