Water Security Indicators Web-Application

United States military mission readiness and global security interests can be adversely impacted by weather anomalies that include floods, drought, and temperature extremes. These events may result in long-term impacts such as displaced populations, food and water shortages, and impaired infrastructure. In order to anticipate worldwide water availability, energy generation, and food security issues, planners must know when and where these anomalies are likely to occur. We developed the Water Security Indicators Web-Application to provide a common and integrated access point to water anomaly forecasting tools. The portal offers a holistic view of water security threats on multiple spatial and temporal scales. The portal deploys an intuitive stoplight matrix to highlight areas likely to experience severe or widespread anomalies. The stoplight matrix is available at three spatial resolutions: combatant command level, sub-continent level, and country level. The portal consists of data produced by two main complimentary tools: The Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) and the Streamflow Prediction Tool (SPT). WSIM, developed by ISciences, LLC, computes monthly indicators of water anomalies at half-degree resolution using temperature and precipitation forecasts with up to 9-month lead times from the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System. WSIM forecasts identify regions that are likely to experience anomalous hydrologic activity within the nine-month forecasting window. In addition to physical water anomaly forecasting, WSIM examines water security impacts on agriculture and energy production. The energy assessment forecasts weather-driven electric power loss risk across different types of power plants such as, hydropower, water cooled, and nuclear. The agriculture assessment forecasts anomalies in agricultural production for 19 different crop types globally. SPT, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, provides streamflow forecasts of up to 15 days. SPT provides hydrologic forecasts globally by routing runoff forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge model (RAPID). The interplay between WSIM's long-term coarser global predictions, and SPT's high-resolution near-term predictions makes the Water Security Indicators Web-Application a powerful tool for mission readiness planners managing societal impacts in a changing climate.