Using Historical Trends as Projections

The State Climate Office of Texas was commissioned last year to provide climate projections out to 2036. Extrapolation of existing trends was preferred over the use of downscaled climate model output because of a general distrust of climate models and climate change in general among the intended audience. Given these constraints, our projections report relied heavily on data from federal and regional climate services providers. The information was presented on a scale and context that was appropriate for the state of Texas, and an examination was made of the validity of relying on historical trends when climate model output is also available. The climate projections report would have been impossible to produce at the federal level, yet on the other hand federal climate data and information sources were essential to the report so it would have been impossible to produce solely at the state level. Key messages from the report included accelerated warming trends in urban areas and a very large decrease in extreme cold temperatures.