13.1 Current Status and Path Forward for Improving Short to Medium Range Forecasting of CME Space Weather Impacts (Invited Presentation)

Wednesday, 15 January 2020: 3:00 PM
205A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Angelos Vourlidas, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD

A number of space missions and modeling advances have greatly advanced our scientific understanding of the main solar drivers of Space Weather (SpW), i.e. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), in the last 20+ years. Yet, there has been relatively little progress in forecasting the geo-effectiveness of a given CME and associated phenomena. Why is that? What are the issues that are holding back progress in short to medium-term forecasting (up to 7 days) of CME geoeffectiveness?

In this talk, I review the current status on CME geoeffectiveness forecasting, offer a range of mitigation strategies for consideration, and discuss the expected contributions from recent and near-future missions, such as the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, PUNCH, and others

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