Exploring Methods of Communicating Convective Impact Risks for Extended Range National Airspace System Planning

During the 2019 Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Summer Experiment, various automated and user generated experimental products were evaluated for their potential to provide improved convective forecast guidance for extended range (Day 2-4) traffic flow management (TFM) planning.

Currently, the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) produces two separate automated extended range products with a convective focus, the Extended TFM Convective Forecast (eTCF) and the Extended Convective Forecast Plot (ECFP). Experimental variations of these two products, including variants with differing input model blends and differing temporal resolutions, were evaluated during the experiment both subjectively by experiment participants, and through objective verification metrics.

Additionally, experiment participants collaborated to produce daily convective impact and timing outlook graphics for Days 2, 3, & 4. These impact graphics are meant to provide guidance in a more user friendly, IDSS framework, depicting explicit impact levels (low, moderate, high) to the National Airspace System based on characteristics and areal location of forecast convection.

Results of the evaluations of these experimental automated and user generated products will be detailed. Additionally, recommendations for moving forward with providing optimal extended range convective forecast guidance for aviation concerns will be provided.