Session 14 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Program Chairs: Pinto James , NCAR ; Mike Robinson , The MITRE Corporation

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Monday, 13 January 2020

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1
History of ARAM: Evolution of capabilities for detecting and predicting aviation weather hazard: Saving lives
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: James Pinto, NCAR
CoChair: Mike Robinson, The MITRE Corporation
8:30 AM
.1
Addressing the Microburst Threat to Aviation: A Research-to-Operations Success Story (Invited Presentation)
John McCarthy, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Serafin and B. Mahoney

9:00 AM
.2
Aviation turbulence theory, detection, and forecasting: Past, present, and future (Invited Presentation)
Robert D. Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO

9:30 AM
.3
Over a Quarter Century of Aircraft Icing Diagnosis and Forecasts (Invited Presentation)
Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 2
Research Programs, Services, and Initiatives to Support the Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorological Communities
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation
CoChair: Randy Bass, AWRP
10:30 AM
.1
The Status of International Civil Aviation Organization Meteorological Information Exchange Model (IWXXM) Global and United States Implementation
M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC

10:45 AM
.2
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Ceiling and Visibility Research
Jennifer A. Colavito, FAA, Washington, DC

11:00 AM
.3
Federal Aviation Administration Aircraft Icing Weather Research
Stephanie DiVito, FAA, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and D. L. Sims, J. T. Riley, T. Bond, S. D. Landolt, and J. A. Haggerty

11:15 AM
.4
Weather Information Services for Enterprise Research - a framework to allow better integration, analysis, and testing of weather information within the National Airspace System.
John Preston, FAA, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ

11:30 AM
.5
JPSS Aviation Initiative
J. Weinrich, JPSS/STC, Glenn Dale, MD

11:45 AM
.6
Science Upgrades to World Area Forecast System
Teil Howard, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, E. Steele, G. Anderson, C. S. Bartholomew, K. L. Brown, M. Canning, J. C. H. Cheung, A. Lanyon, D. Turp, B. P. Pettegrew, and M. Strahan

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 3
Weather needs for Small UAS and the Potential for Improving their Own Guidance
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Paul E. Bieringer, Aeris
CoChair: Hyeyum (Hailey) Shin, NCAR
2:00 PM
.1
Preliminary Gap Analysis and Research Roadmap for Unmanned Aircraft Weather Decision Support
David Clark, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and J. E. Evans, T. Bonin, and J. Kuchar

2:15 PM
.2
Weather Focus Area within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Integration Research Plan for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)
Kevin Johnston, FAA, Washington, DC

2:30 PM
.3
Simulation of Small Fixed_Wing and Multirotor UAS Using Realistic Small-Scale Wind Fields
Larry Cornman, NCAR, Boulder, CO

2:45 PM
.4
Ice Accretion Prediction for Small Unmanned Aircraft Conditions
Alyssa Avery, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and J. Jacob

3:00 PM
.5
What If Every Aeronautical Vehicle Operating in Our Airspace Were to Report Weather Conditions?
Michael Robinson, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and M. Fronzak, M. Steiner, and T. Becher

3:15 PM
.6
Evaluation of realtime fine-scale UAS forecast guidance on winds and turbulence obtained using WRF LES over a sub-alpine desert valley
James Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Jensen, P. Jimenez, J. Lundquist, S. Bailey, J. Jacob, A. Houston, S. Waugh, P. Chilson, G. deBoer, and K. Glasheen

3:30 PM
.7
Quantifying the impact of UAS-sensed data on high-resolution, limited-area WRF forecasts using NCAR’s Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART)
Anders A. Jensen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, S. Bailey, S. Smith, P. B. Chilson, G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, G. de Boer, K. Glasheen, S. Waugh, A. L. Houston, and P. Jimenez

3:45 PM
.8
Utilizing UAS to Assist in Weather Hazard Detection for Urban Air Mobility and Unmanned Traffic Management
Jamey Jacob, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK; and R. Allamraju, T. Mitchell, and V. Natalie

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 4
Scaling Down the Weather to Support Urban Air Mobility
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Kevin Johnston, FAA
CoChair: Anders Jensen, NCAR
8:30 AM
.1
Weather Challenges for Emerging Modes of Aerial Transportation
Matthias Steiner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Boehnert, W. Deierling, A. Dumont, J. A. Grim, K. Ikeda, D. Jacobsen, T. Keller, C. Kessinger, G. Meymaris, D. Munoz Esparza, J. M. Pearson, J. O. Pinto, A. Rugg, H. Shin, and K. Stone

8:45 AM
.2
Evolving the Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) Tool
Stephanie Avey, NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and A. Cross and D. Vietor

9:00 AM
.3
Flying Safe in Dallas Fort Worth - Meeting the Weather Alerting Needs of Drone and Air Taxi Operators
Apoorva Bajaj, Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA; and B. Philips, E. Lyons, D. Westbrook, and E. Huffman

9:15 AM
.4
Building Resolving Urban Microscale Weather for UAS/UAM Applications
Paul Bieringer, Aeris, Louisville, CO; and A. Annunzio, G. Bieberbach Jr., and H. J. J. Jonker

9:30 AM
.5
Building-Resolving LES within the GPU-Accelerated FastEddy Model: Toward Street-Scale Weather Forecasting
Domingo Munoz-Esparza, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sauer, H. Shin, R. D. Sharman, B. Kosovic, and M. Steiner

9:45 AM
.6
Observations of the Microscale Urban Wind field impacting UAV's using Scanning Doppler LIDAR
Ludovic Thobois, Leosphere, saclay, France; Leosphere, saclay, France; and D. Sathiyanarayanan and R. Parmentier

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 5
Advancements in the Analysis and Prediction of Turbulence for Aviation, Range and Aerospace Operations
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Wiebke Deierling, NCAR
CoChair: Han-Chang Ko, Yonsei University
10:30 AM
.1
Government-Industry Collaborative Investigations of In-Cloud versus Out-of-Cloud Turbulence
Tammy J. Flowe, FAA, Washington, DC; and G. Meymaris, R. Sharman, W. Deierling, J. Pearson, R. Curtis, W. L. Qualley, and J. Hendricks

10:45 AM
.2
Deriving Operationally Useful Turbulence Measurements from ADS-B Reports
Larry Cornman, NCAR, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM
.3
Utility of gravity wave regions identified in GOES water vapor imaginary for verifying turbulence forecasts.
Tanya R. Peevey, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CSU/CIRA, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Mueller, K. R. Fenton Jr., M. S. Wandishin, and P. Hamer

11:15 AM
.4
Climatology of the Estimated Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) using the 1-Hz wind observations from In-situ Flight Data
Jung-Hoon Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. M. Kim, S. H. Kim, and H. Y. Chun

11:30 AM
.5
UTLS Turbulence Forecasting with NWP Models at 1-km Grid Spacing: The 'Unexpected' True Consequences of PBL Diffusion
Domingo Munoz-Esparza, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and S. B. Trier

11:45 AM
.6
Increased Light, Moderate, and Severe Clear-Air Turbulence in Response to Climate Change
Paul D. Williams, University of Reading, Reading, UK

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 6
John T. Madura session on developing weather technologies to support range operations through R2O and O2R pathways
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Jason Knievel, NCAR
CoChair: Stephen Mackey, DOT
1:30 PM
.1
History and Future Challenges in Aerospace Meteorology (Invited Presentation)
Ryan K. Decker, MSFC, Huntsville, AL

1:45 PM
.2
An Integrated Approach to Analyze Ascent Abort Ground Track Sea Conditions for Crewed Space Vehicles
Robert E. Barbre Jr., Jacobs Space Exploration Group, Huntsville, AL; and K. M. Altino and K. L. Burns

2:00 PM
.3
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Model: Physics Updates and Operational Improvements
Christopher J. Mertens, NASA, Hampton, VA; and G. Gronoff

2:15 PM
.4
Development of Trend Analysis Techniques for Aviation and Range Operations Weather Hazards from Continuous Remote Sensing Observations
Kimberly A Reed, Radiometrics Corporation, Boulder, CO; and B. Conway, B. M. Lund, T. Wilfong, R. Ware, and J. Baumgardner

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 7
Studies Involving Aviation Impacts Translation Modeling
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Mark Worris, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
CoChair: Steve Abelman, American Airlines
3:00 PM
.1
A Historical Perspective on the Integration of Weather Information into Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools (Invited Presentation)
James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA

3:30 PM
.2
Airline Operational Performance as it Relates to TAFs
Benjamin D Dillahunt, Southwest Airlines Co., Dallas, TX; and J. C. Cohen

3:45 PM
.3
Impact-Based Decision Support Services for the National Airspace System: A Case Study of Two High-Impact Thunderstorm Events on Traffic Flow Management
David Bieger, NWS, Warrenton, VA; and J. Carr Jr., M. T. Eckert, B. A. Smith, K. Struckmann, and B. Waranauskas

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session 1: Properties, detection, prediction and mitigation of aviation weather hazards
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
Climatological Properties of Reported Cloud-to-Ground Lightning for Alaska from several Lightning Detection Systems
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli, P. E. Shafer, F. G. Samplatsky, and A. J. Kochenash

Analysis of Convectively Induced Turbulence (CIT) within the Shallow Convections in Seoul, South Korea
Jung-Hoon Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and N. W. Lee, S. W. Baek, and G. W. Lee

Incorporation of a 3-D Mosaicked Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm into the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System
Shawn Handler, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Eddy and H. D. Reeves

Using GLM in the Aviation Weather Center
Brian P. Pettegrew, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Kansas City, MO; and S. Minnick and A. Terborg

Blending Extrapolation and R3R Forecast
Ming Fang, IMSG, Silver Spring, MD; IMSG, Rockville, MD; and R. Chen, J. Cheng, Y. Weng, S. Liu, W. Guo, L. Jiang, Y. Jin, and M. Yao

Analysis and Automated Detection of Ice Crystal Icing Conditions Using Geostationary Satellite Datasets and In Situ Ice Water Content Measurements
K. M. Bedka, NASA, Hampton, VA; and C. R. Yost, L. Nguyen, J. W. Strapp, T. Ratvasky, K. Khlopenkov, B. Scarino, R. Bhatt, D. A. Spangenberg, and R. Palikonda

The Impact of Extreme Weather on the National Airspace System
Tyler Scott Harrington, FAA, Washington, DC

Comparison of Aircraft Observations to Assess Cloud Phase Conditions during the BAIRS II Campaign
Michael F Donovan, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA

Developing a Climatologically Derived Probabilistic Global Turbulence Forecast
Alex P. Korner, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Kansas City, MO; and B. P. Pettegrew and M. Strahan

Observations of Super-cooled Drizzle Production in a Wintertime, Orographic Cloud
Adam Majewski, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and J. French

Application of atmospheric turbulence estimated using the Thorpe analysis method and operational radiosonde data in USA to aviation turbulence
Han-Chang Ko, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun and R. D. Sharman

Statistics and Evaluations of Low-Level Turbulence near Boseong, South Korea
JIWOO LEE, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Kim

Update on the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast (GTGN)
Tammy J. Flowe, FAA, Washington, DC; and M. D. Eckstein, W. Watts, M. S. Wandishin, G. Meymaris, J. Pearson, J. A. Craig, and J. Bracken

Case Analysis of Generation Mechanism for a Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) Encounter near Tokyo on 30 October 2018
Ha-Neul Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Kim

Understanding the Interactions between Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Urban Landscapes through Large-Eddy Simulations: Impacts on Low-Level Winds and Turbulence
Hyeyum (Hailey) Shin, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Muñoz-Esparza, J. Sauer, M. Steiner, J. Boehnert, and P. Hoel

Quantifying Spatial Separation Error in Tropospheric Wind Measurements
Nathan Curtis, NASA, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Barbre Jr. and F. B. Leahy

The Atmospheric Flow at the Alcantara Space Center - in situ Observations, Modelling and Wind Tunnel Essays
Gilberto Fisch, Institute of Aeronautics and Space, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. P. F. Francisco, A. C. Avelar, E. G. Valentim, K. Klippel, N. C. Reis Jr., and B. Hulle

A Climatology of Lake Breezes at O'Hare International Airport
Ryan North, SUNY Oswego, Oswego, NY

Pilot Report System Modernization
Robert Avjian, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and M. Fronzak and D. Strand

DTN's High Ice Water Forecasts
Donald W. McCann, 7306 W. 157th Terrace, Overland Park, KS; and W. Hyduke

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 8
Session on Advancements in the Analysis and Prediction of Aircraft Icing and Methods/Tools for Icing Mitigation
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Stephanie DiVito, FAA
CoChair: Darcy Jacobson, NCAR
8:30 AM
.1
NEXRAD Dual Polarimetric Hazard Products for Aviation
David J. Smalley, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. F. Donovan, E. R. Williams, B. J. Bennett, J. M. Kurdzo, and R. F. Ferris

8:45 AM
.2
Drop Size Distribution Retrieval from Polarimetric Radar Data to Enhance the Spectral Bin Classification in Detecting Icing Conditions
Nathan T. Lis, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves, A. A. Rosenow, and G. Zhang

9:00 AM
.3
Dual-polarization Radar Icing Algorithm (RadIA): Verification/Validation with Research Flights and Application at Military Test Ranges
David J. Serke, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger, S. A. Tessendorf, A. Korolev, I. Heckman, J. French, J. Knievel, J. A. Haggerty, and D. Albo

9:15 AM
.4
Comparison of Airborne In-Situ Icing Observations to Icing Algorithm Output and Aviation Forecasts in the Southern Ocean
Cory A. Wolff, NCAR, Broomfield, CO; and J. A. Haggerty, D. R. Adriaansen, R. J. Potts, C. Lethlean, G. McFarquhar, and W. Wu

9:30 AM
.5
Initial Steps Toward a Next Generation Current Icing Product Algorithm
Daniel R. Adriaansen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Haggerty, A. Rugg, and D. Serke

9:45 AM
.6
Assessing the Cloud Structures of a 1980 Icing Accident Using in situ Data from a Research Aircraft and a High Resolution Model
Frank McDonough, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. F. Mejia


Joint Session 34
Advances in Data Assimilation, Verification, and Probabilistic Forecasting of Aviation Weather Hazards
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Chair: Stephanie Avey, AWC
CoChair: Stanley B. Trier, NCAR
8:30 AM
J34.1
1955-2019 – How NWP Has Evolved to Improve Safety and Efficiency for Aviation (Invited Presentation)
Stan Benjamin, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

9:00 AM
J34.2
Development of and Implementation Strategies for the Unified Forecast System at NCEP to Assist with Forecasting Aviation Weather Hazards
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin, J. R. Carley, and M. E. Pyle

9:15 AM
J34.3
Use of Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation for Initializing the Deterministic HRRR and Use of Hrrre Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts to Provide Probabilistic Aviation Hazard Guidance
Steve Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, G. Ge, T. T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, M. Hu, E. James, J. S. Kenyon, I. Jankov, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, and S. G. Benjamin

9:30 AM
J34.4
A Commercial Airline's Use of The Weather Company/IBM's Current Condition Assimilation System for Flight Operations in the Caribbean
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company - An IBM Business, Atlanta, GA; and B. Krajewski, D. Winn, and I. Rahman

9:45 AM
J34.5
The Analysis of Short-Term Operational Wind Forecasts and Implications for Aircraft Operations in Terminal Areas*
Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Dupree, R. F. Ferris, D. D. Moradi, and D. Clark

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 39
Statistical Methods for Optimized Aviation Hazard Detection and Prediction
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Chair: Ken Stone, NCAR
CoChair: Alex P. Korner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
10:30 AM
J39.1
Statistical Methods for Diagnosing Aviation Hazards and Their Likelihood From Numerical Weather Prediction Models: Past, Present, and Future (Invited Presentation)
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD

11:00 AM
J39.2
Gridded LAMP Ceiling Height and Visibility Guidance for Alaska
Adam D. Schnapp, CIRA, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. Bogusz

11:15 AM
J39.3
Development of LAMP Convection and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Forecast Guidance for Alaska and Beyond
Jerome Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, P. E. Shafer, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. J. Kochenash

11:30 AM
J39.4
Satellite Cloud Vertical Cross-section Products and User-Engaged Improvement for Aviation Weather Applications
YJ. Noh, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and S. D. Miller, J. M. Haynes, C. J. Seaman, J. H. Kim, and A. Heidinger

11:45 AM
J39.5
Volcanic Ash Forecast Verification using HYSPLIT and Satellite Ash Observations Identified by VOLCAT
Allison M. Ring, ARL, College Park, MD; Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies, College Park, MD; and A. Crawford, B. J. B. Stunder, J. Sieglaff, and M. J. Pavolonis

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 9
Panel Discussion: Mitigating Aviation Weather Hazards and Managing Operational Impacts in 2050
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Moderator: Mike Robinson, The MITRE Corporation
Panelists: Craig Wanke, The MITRE Corporation; Matthias Steiner, NCAR; Peter Neilley, The Weather Company, an IBM Business; Sandy MacDonald, SPIRE; Karen Shelton-Mur, HQ FAA
1:30 PM
.1
Mitigating Aviation Weather Hazards and Managing Operational Impacts in 2050: A Panel Discussion
Michael Robinson, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 10
Advancements in the analysis, nowcasting and prediction of convectively-induced turbulence
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Tammy J. Flowe, FAA
CoChair: Soo-Hyun Kim, Yonsei Univ.
3:00 PM
.1
Using Numerical Models to Understand Linkages between Deep Convection and Aviation Turbulence (Invited Presentation)
Stan Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO

3:30 PM
.2
Current Improvements to the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast (GTGN) Algorithm
Julia Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Deierling and R. D. Sharman

3:45 PM
.3
Updates on the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Product – including Convectively Induced Turbulence Detection
Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Sharman, D. Munoz-Esparza, J. Pearson, and G. Meymaris

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Poster Session 2
Poster Session 2: Properties, detection, prediction and mitigation of aviation weather hazards
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron
Examining the Performance of Aviation Weather Center Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast Products
Robert M. Hepper, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and A. Cross

Investigation of the Forecast Icing Product Supercooled Large Droplet Potential Algorithm During Select Cases from the In Cloud Icing and Large Drop Experiment
Daniel R. Adriaansen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Haggerty, A. Rugg, S. Tessendorf, A. Korolev, and M. Wolde

Dugway Proving Ground's Mission Support Meteorological Observation Systems
Tyler Wieland, Department of Defense, Dugway, UT; and C. Cook, E. Nelsen, D. Ruth, and D. P. Storwold Jr.

Impact-Based Decision Support Service Collaboration Between NWS and FAA: 100th PGA Tournament Aviation Planning and Enhanced Services
Sally Johnson, NWSFO, Saint Charles, MO; and J. A. Zeltwanger and E. Jennings

Aviation Weather Research Facility (AWRF)
Stephen Mackey, DOT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Scarpone and R. Samiljan

Generating In-Flight Hazard Information Using AWIPS Hazard Services
Nathan Hardin, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. Nietfeld, D. M. Kingfield, B. Entwhistle, A. Cross, E. Petrescu, and N. Eckstein

NASA/MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model Overview and Updates
Patrick W. White, NASA MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Status of Implementation of International Civil Aviation Organization Space Weather Information Provisions
M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC

A Quality Assessment of the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Aviation
Matthew T. Morris, Systems Research Group and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, E. Colón, A. M. Gibbs, M. Pondeca, and S. Levine

Local Aviation Performance Statistics: Scale Normalization for IFR-Frequency Effects in Central Pennsylvania using the Total Performance Index
Matthew Steinbugl, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and G. Lachat and M. Lorenston

World Area Forecast System Hazard Grid Upgrades
Brian P. Pettegrew, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Kansas City, MO; and M. Strahan, P. Buchanan, K. Shorey, and H. Y. Chuang

Improving In-flight Aviation Warnings Using a New International Collaboration Tool
Katie Deroche, NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and N. komatsu

Use of FAA NextGen Weather to Meet Terminal ATC Weather Needs
Maria Spitzak, Raytheon Company, Marlborough, MA; and E. Mann

Integrating GOES-16 Resources into Air Traffic Decision Making
Roland Nunez, NWS/Center Weather Service Unit, Houston, TX; and E. Zappe and L. Wood

Weather Information Modernization and Transitioning (WIMAT)
Kevin Johnston, FAA, Washington, DC; and J. May

Near-Real-Time Monitoring of Cold Air Aloft for Aviation Safety in the United States and Canada
C. Bloch, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. J. Wagner and W. Feltz

The Development of Operational Weather Support on Aviation
Shun Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Weng, R. Chen, J. Cheng, W. Guo, M. Fang, Y. Jin, and L. Jiang

Verification of Air Force Weather Cloud Analyses and Forecasts Using the NASA Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC)
Edward P. Hildebrand, UCAR, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. R. McCormick

Global Cloud Free Line of Sight (CFLOS) Characterizations Using Numerical Weather Prediction Data
Jaclyn Schmidt, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and J. Burley, B. Fourman, and S. Fiorino

AERONET Observations as a Source of Cloud Analysis and Forecast Verification for the 557WW
James McCormick, Software Engineering Services, Offutt AFB, NE; and E. Hildebrand

Nowcasting of Wind Field by Using Meso-scale Ensemble Forecast and Flight-data
Ryota Kikuchi, DoerResearch, Inc., Chiba, Japan; and Y. Matsuno, N. Motoyama, A. Kudo, and A. Senoguchi

Thursday, 16 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 11
Influence of US National Security Programs on Improved Analysis and Prediction of Aviation and Range Weather
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Ryan Decker, MSFC
CoChair: James McCormick, Software Engineering Services
8:30 AM
.1
A Century of Symbiosis between Applied Meteorology and National Security (Invited Presentation)
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt and J. Cogan

9:00 AM
.2
Recent Operational Support Improvements at 45th Weather Squadron
William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral AFS, FL

9:15 AM
.3
Dugway Proving Ground's Meteorological Mission Support and Collaborative Field Studies
Cori Cook, Department of Defense, Dugway, UT; and E. Nelson, D. Ruth, D. Storwold, and T. Wieland

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 12
Aviation Decision-Making Using Forcast Uncertainty
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Matthias Steiner, NCAR
CoChair: Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
10:30 AM
.1
Integrating Weather Forecasts with Uncertainty Into Complex Operational Decisions at American Airlines
Steve Abelman, American Airlines, Ft. Worth, TX

10:45 AM
.2
Advanced Forecasts, Constraint Translations, and Decision Models for Improved Air Traffic Management given Weather Uncertainty
Michael Robinson, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and T. Niznik, J. K. Williams, and C. P. Taylor

11:00 AM
.3
Global Probabilistic Forecasts of Convective Weather Aviation Hazards
Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, C. P. Kalb, C. Kessinger, W. Deierling, M. Steiner, J. Grim, T. Blitz, R. Bass, J. M. Baker, and M. Strahan

11:15 AM
.4
Design and Evaluation of a Multi-Model Weather Impact Translation System with Forecast Confidence
Mark Worris, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, M. Matthews, J. Venuti, F. Fabrizi, and J. Kuchar

11:30 AM
.5
Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts for Denver International Airport Snow Operations
Dana M. Mueller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fenton Jr., M. S. Wandishin, and M. Kraus

11:45 AM
.6
A Generic Methodology to Characterize and Display Terminal Wind Forecast Uncertainty
Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and V. E. Klimenko, D. J. Larsen, R. M. Avjian, J. J. Huhn, M. Robinson, and D. A. Strand

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 13
Advancements in the Detection, Prediction, Decision Support for Mitigating the Effects of Convection and Lightning on Airborne Operations
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Brian P. Pettegrew, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.
CoChair: Jerome Charba, 1325 East West Highway
1:30 PM
.1
The Remote Oceanic Meteorology Information Operational (ROMIO) Demonstration
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Frazier, A. Izadi, A. Trani, T. A. Lindholm, J. Olivo, W. Watts, R. Stone, B. Norris, S. Abelman, E. Senen, and K. Bharathan

1:45 PM
.2
Development of satellite-based cloud top height and convection nowcasting products in support of SIGMET coordination in APAC region
Christy Y. Y. Leung, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and H. C. Tam, W. S. Chan, and H. K. Fok

2:00 PM
.3
Convective SIGMETs: A Climatological Retrospective and Thoughts for Future Enhancements
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. L. Solomon, A. Eddy, J. W. Scheck, and A. A. Rosenow

2:15 PM
.4
An Algorithm to Automatically Generate Convective SIGMETs over the Contiguous United States
Alexander Eddy, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. Reeves, R. L. Solomon, and P. Skinner

2:30 PM
.5
Application of a convective gravity wave drag parameterization to aviation turbulence forecasting
Soo-Hyun Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, R. Sharman, and D. B. Lee

2:45 PM
.6
Exploring Methods of Communicating Convective Impact Risks for Extended Range National Airspace System Planning
Robert M. Hepper, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and A. Cross, S. Avey, and A. P. Korner


Joint Session 62
Advances in the Use of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Support of Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Cochairs: Haig Iskendarian, MIT; James M. Kurdzo, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
1:30 PM
J62.1
Using a neural network to predict future radar frames
Claire Sheila Bartholomew, Met Office, Exeter, UK; University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. Hogg, J. H. Marsham, and T. Howard

1:45 PM
J62.2
The WSR-88D Chaff Detection Algorithm Utilizing a Support Vector Machine based on Human Truthing
James M. Kurdzo, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and B. J. Bennett, D. J. Smalley, M. F. Donovan, and E. R. Williams

2:00 PM
J62.3
Global Synthetic Weather Radar in AWS GovCloud for the US Air Force
Mark S. Veillette, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and H. Iskenderian, P. M. Lamey, C. J. Mattioli, A. Banerjee, M. Worris, A. B. Proschitsky, R. F. Ferris, A. Manwelyan, S. Rajagopalan, H. Usmani, T. E. Coe, J. E. Luce, and B. A. Esgar

2:15 PM
J62.4
Detection of Aircraft Lightning Potential Areas by using a Deep Neural Network with Interpretability
Eiichi Yoshikawa, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Mitaka, Japan; and T. Ushio

2:30 PM
J62.5
Improvements to Convective Weather Avoidance Modeling Using Supervised Learning
Christopher J. Mattioli, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. Matthews, H. Iskendarian, and M. S. Veillette

2:45 PM
J62.6
Short-term Wind Forecasts for Aviation*
William J. Dupree, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, A. Banerjee, J. P. Morgan, T. Bonin, H. Iskenderian, and M. McPartland

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 14
Overview and early results from the In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE)
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Daniel R. Adriaansen, NCAR
CoChair: Nathan T. Lis, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL
3:30 PM
.1
In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE) Part 1: Overview
Stephanie DiVito, FAA, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and B. C. Bernstein, D. L. Sims, J. T. Riley, S. D. Landolt, J. A. Haggerty, M. Wolde, and A. Korolev

3:45 PM
.2
In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE) Part 2: Airborne Measurements
Mengistu Wolde, National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and A. Korolev, L. Nichman, I. Heckman, C. Nguyen, N. Bliankinshtein, M. Bastian, A. Brown, B. C. Bernstein, S. DiVito, D. L. Sims, S. D. Landolt, and J. A. Haggerty

4:00 PM
.3
In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE) Part 3: Supplemental Datasets
Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Lentz, S. DiVito, D. L. Sims, J. A. Haggerty, B. C. Bernstein, A. Korolev, and M. Wolde

4:15 PM
.4
An In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE) Case Study
Darcy Marie Jacobson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Landolt, S. DiVito, B. C. Bernstein, D. L. Sims, J. A. Haggerty, A. Korolev, and M. Wolde

4:30 PM
.5
Improving Terminal Area Supercooled Large Drop Detection with One-Minute Ceilometer Profiles Obtained During the In-Cloud Icing and Large Drop Experiment (ICICLE)
Joshua Lave, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Landolt, S. DiVito, L. Nichman, and C. Nguyen

4:45 PM
.6
Ultra-High Resolution Aircraft Icing Forecasting During the ICICLE Field Project
Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Korolev, L. Nichman, M. Wolde, S. Landolt, and S. DiVito

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