Session 11 Aviation Decision-Making Using Forcast Uncertainty

Thursday, 16 January 2020: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
206A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Matthias Steiner, NCAR, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO
Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Air Traffic Control Systems Group, Lexington, MA

Better and more proactive decisions are being made by commercial airline operation centers and other aviation service providers using various forms of weather uncertainty. This not only includes probability forecasts, but also considers risk exposure, forecast confidence (from various sources) and creative ways to use model ensemble data. This session will highlight users and weather providers that are working to make safer and more cost efficient decisions for the flying public.

10:45 AM
Advanced Forecasts, Constraint Translations, and Decision Models for Improved Air Traffic Management Given Weather Uncertainty
Michael Robinson, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and T. Niznik, J. K. Williams, and C. P. Taylor
11:00 AM
Global Probabilistic Forecasts of Convective Weather Aviation Hazards
Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, C. P. Kalb, C. Kessinger, W. Deierling, M. Steiner, J. Grim, T. Blitz, R. Bass, J. M. Baker, and M. Strahan
11:15 AM
Design and Evaluation of a Multimodel Weather Impact Translation System with Forecast Confidence
Mark Worris, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, M. Matthews, J. Venuti, F. Fabrizi, and J. Kuchar

11:30 AM
Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts for Denver International Airport Snow Operations
Dana M. Mueller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fenton Jr., M. S. Wandishin, and M. Kraus
11:45 AM
A Generic Methodology to Characterize and Display Terminal Wind Forecast Uncertainty
Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and V. E. Klimenko, D. J. Larsen, R. M. Avjian, J. J. Huhn, M. Robinson, and D. A. Strand
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