Airline Operational Performance as it Relates to TAFs

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) play a legal role for tactical planning of commercial airline flights and also play a sensitive role when it comes to strategic planning of airline operations. By analyzing historical data from past events and examining the relevant TAF, the weight the TAF has in operational planning and its implications on operational performance can be quantified. This study analyzes historical Southwest Airlines operational performance data with concurrent TAFs to show the weight of the TAF in airline operations. The goal is not to single out any particular accurate or inaccurate forecast but instead demonstrate how impactful the TAF can be on commerce and customer service. Two case studies are considered with one considering convective events at one of the Core 30 airports and the other being wind events putting an airport out of landing limits. Operational performance numbers are compared for cases when the TAF verified well and for cases when it did not. Supplemental information such as the forecast discussion and radar imagery are used in the analysis of each case as well. The limitations of TAFs are addressed and demonstrate the value of any granularity given in aviation forecasts.