Developing a Climatologically Derived Probabilistic Global Turbulence Forecast

A climatology of global forecasts of Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) values were compiled using the GFS Graphical Turbulence Guidance algorithm at 0.25 degree resolution and every 25 hPa vertically. The program computes a running thirty day average of EDR for mandatory height levels at select grid points. Computed values in this climatology include, average, standard deviation, maximum and minimum. These values are then measured against forecasts of EDR to identify abnormal conditions relative to a climatological signal and to prioritize a forecaster’s attention. This method is able to show regions most susceptible to variability in EDR patterns. Additionally, this methodology normalizes the anomaly and produces anomaly forecasts out to 36 hours. This work is modeled after work done at the Ocean Prediction Center using a forty-year climatology to quantify sea-level pressure and wind speed anomalies.