3A.6 Real-Time Subseasonal Forecast with SubX

Monday, 13 January 2020: 3:15 PM
157C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Shan Sun, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and K. Pegion

SubX, short for subseasonal experiment, is a multi-model prediction project sponsored by NOAA/CPO/MAPP to support operational week 3-4 forecasts as well as for understanding predictability and prediction on the subseasonal time scale. There are seven models from US and Canada participating, where each model provides real time forecasts weekly, with at least 4 ensemble members, starting July 2017. Each model also carried out a 17 year hindcast, from which a model climatology at different lead days is derived. An anomaly forecast is calculated weekly based on the climatology of each model. Forecast maps are produced and made publicly available from all models and as a multi-model ensemble. The hindcast and real time data are also available to the general public. We will present the forecasts and skill evaluation from individual model as well as multi-model ensembles. We will also provide some highlights of subseasonal forecast successes and failures since SubX began producing real-time forecasts.
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