Development and Application of Global Aerosol Forecasts Using the Online Coupled GEFS–Aerosol Model

FV3GFS, NCEP’s Next Generation Global Prediction System, was coupled online with aerosol modules from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transportmodel(GOCART) as well as WRF-Chem’s biomass burning plume rise model. This online modeling system will replace the current operational NEMS (NOAA Environmental Modeling System) GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC)at NCEP (planned in 2020). It will be placed as an ensemble member in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and is named GEFS-aerosols. At NOAA ESRL, real-time experimental aerosol forecasts are produced and evaluated at ~25km horizontal resolution globally from the surface to the top of atmosphere. We have tested two different global anthropogenic emission inventories from Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) and Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) v2. During the fire season of 2019, we also apply different fire emissions and plume-rise configurations to investigate the fire event and the pollution transport of smoke plumes. Real-time forecast experiments are evaluated using satellite observations and AERONET data, as well as aircraft measurements from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom-1) field experiment. This talk will introduce the modeling system and show initial evaluation results.