Short-term Monitoring and Forecasting of Flash Drought Conditions

Flash drought is a subset of drought that is characterized by unusually rapid intensification and develops on subseasonal timescales. These events can occur following periods of above or near normal precipitation and can yield significant impacts to agricultural production. Due to these characteristics, predictability of flash drought remains a challenge. Recently, the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) was developed to quantify flash drought events using reanalysis datasets. Based on this approach, a modified version of SESR was developed and applied to the Global Forecast System analyses and forecast products to determine skill in flash drought monitoring and development out to two weeks across the United States.