Estimating the Economic Impact of the Tornado Warning Improvement and Extension Program on Businesses

The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 directed NOAA to create a Tornado Warning Improvement and Extension Program (TWIEP). This program requirement will be met with new probabilistic hazard information (PHI) that offers information up to an hour ahead of the impact of a storm. One of the potential benefits of this information could come in the form of reduced economic losses for businesses as they tailor their responses to their cost/loss decision triggers and ideal lead-times. This presentation will provide an overview of results from a 2019 survey of businesses in North Texas that demonstrate the extent to which businesses want and can use probabilistic information, what kinds of activities they undertake when severe weather threatens, and how those activities may shift in the new paradigm. An econometric analysis will provide an estimate of the total savings potentially generated by businesses using PHI.