End-of-Century Climate Change Projections in the U.S. Lower Midwest Region

This study presents a high-resolution dynamical downscaling method to project end-of-21st-century climate changes in the US Lower Midwest region. The technique produces outcomes for currently available CMIP6-archived Global Climate Models (GCMs) and selected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, to account for considerable forcing and response uncertainties. Two types of high-resolution regional climate simulations using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. The baseline beginning-of-21st-century simulation is forced by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The future end-of-21st-century simulations are designed and performed to simulate how the baseline period would transpire if the mean climate were altered to reflect the climate change signals presented in a handful of selected CMIP6 GCMs. A series of sensitivity experiments by different combinations of microphysics, radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes are performed and compared to in-situ observations and will be presented. The application of the high-resolution climate change projection to climate change impacts assessments, including surface hydrology, water resources and agriculture will be discussed as well.