The Intersection of Historic Flooding, Winter and Severe Weather, and Decision Support during February 2019 in the Tennessee Valley

February 2019 was the wettest February on record across much of the Mid South region. The Huntsville, AL Weather Forecast Office (WFO) saw its wettest February at both of its climate sites and moderate to major flooding throughout the Tennessee River Basin. The week of February 17 to 23 saw multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, as well as a winter weather threat and severe weather threat within a week, which is uncommon for northern Alabama. This event was also responsible for a flash-flooding fatality in Buck’s Pocket State Park. Decision support services were provided to the local emergency manager to help with recovery efforts, in addition to WFO-wide briefings highlighting the historic potential of this flood event, as well as impactful winter weather and severe weather throughout the week.

Messaging multiple hazards with DSS for recovery efforts, confirming extreme flooding potential, and forecaster fatigue all make a unique case study for how the meteorological community can handle high-visibility, high-impact events. This presentation will review the meteorological pattern for this historic event, and how pattern recognition and conceptual models increased confidence in a significant event forecast several days in advance.