Seasonal Forecasts for Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases: Experimental Federal Efforts

In 2017, an interagency workshop on Predicting Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases to Protect Public Health and Strengthen National Security concluded that changes in climate patterns will affect a variety of infectious disease risks. This will occur directly and also indirectly through impacts to water and ecosystems, nutrition, and health care delivery systems. Significant progress towards understanding how climate impacts disease and health systems has been made in the scientific arena, allowing the development of more effective interventions to limit the spread of diseases. In particular, seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts have the potential to inform planning and decision making with months of lead time.

One of the recommendations from the 2017 interagency workshop on Predicting Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases to Protect Public Health and Strengthen National Security. With this in mind, an interagency ad hoc group is working to establish, on an experimental basis, national-to-regional scale climate and health outlooks, building upon existing climate outlooks and existing vector- and water-borne disease products in operation across the country. This group plans to assemble the existing scientific literature on short-term vector- and water-borne disease prediction and consult with both epidemiological researchers and public health and vector control professionals to ascertain how to best provide the disease control community with useful forecasts.

This presentation will summarize the findings from literature reviews, expert consultations, and workshops, and will include demonstration of a draft prototype forecast product.