Session 4 Understanding, Predicting, and Providing Early Warning for Climate-sensitive Infectious Diseases

Tuesday, 14 January 2020: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
Host: 11th Conference on Environment and Health
Chair:
Hunter Jones, NOAA, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Kacey Ernst, The Univ. of Arizona, Phoenix, AZ and Jean-Paul Chretien, OSTP, Washington D.C., DC

Climate-sensitive infectious diseases such as Cholera, Dengue, Valley Fever, Zika, West Nile, Lyme, and Chagas, routinely make headlines, popping up in unexpected places as the distribution, feeding ecology and population dynamics of disease vectors such as mosquitos, Vibrios, ticks, and kissing bugs respond to changing environmental drivers. For example, the 2018 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change indicates that mortality from dengue fever disease is increasing rapidly in the Americas and Southeast Asia, and that as sea surface temperatures rise, the suitability of coastal areas for hosting pathogenic Vibrios increases as well. Meanwhile some climate-sensitive diseases such as Valley Fever are cause by fungal spores which can be carried on the wind – directly linking them to environmental conditions.

There exists an unmet need to develop a deeper understanding of the myriad interlinked climate, vector ecology, and biological mechanisms that can ultimately lead to changes in the epidemiology of these diseases in humans to inform potential health interventions together to avert disease epidemics. This enhanced understanding can be applied to integrated predictive models to increase their skill, and to enable health professionals to plan, prepare, and respond with more lead time.

In this session, we invite abstracts addressing new developments in this field – understanding of mechanics, model improvements, case studies in prediction and early warning, and other outcomes demonstrating and advancing the use of environmental information to manage climate-sensitive infectious diseases.

Papers:
8:30 AM
4.1
Seasonal Forecasts for Climate Sensitive Infectious Diseases: Experimental Federal Efforts
John Balbus, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD; and C. Rublee and H. M. Jones

8:45 AM
4.2
CHIKRisk App: Global Mapping and Predicting Chikungunya Risk
Radina Soebiyanto, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Anyamba, R. Damoah, W. Thiaw, and K. Linthicum

9:00 AM
4.3
Diagnostically Study of Seasonal Prediction of Malaria: Case of Senegal, West Africa.
Ibrahima Diouf, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and P. H. KAMSU-TAMO

9:15 AM
4.4
Forecasting Infectious Diseases both with and without Climate Forcing
Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia Univ., New York, NY

9:45 AM
4.6
The Effect of Weather and Population Factors on Dengue Fever Incidence in Saudi Arabia
Kholood K. Altassan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Morin, K. L. Ebi, and J. J. Hess

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner