The Historic 2019 Missouri River Basin Flooding: A Survey of Predictions and Communications

Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) has long been the proven approach National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) use when supporting core partners make high-value water resources management decisions. IDSS provided to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was especially critical in 2019 given the unprecedented magnitude and duration of the Missouri River basin flooding. Although the mid-March “bomb cyclone” sparked the prolonged Missouri River basin flood season, the signals for an active hydrologic season were months in the making. This presentation will survey the evolution of the runoff predictions from the initial Fall 2018 outlooks, through to the deterministic river stage and flow forecasts issued during the height of the event. Also chronicled will be the progression of communicating those predictions to, and with, the USACE, beginning with the Fall 2018 public meetings, through to the daily coordination calls held between the RFC and USACE during the event itself.