Understanding the Nonuniform Perception of Tornado Risk in Central Oklahoma

Over the years, forecasts for hazardous weather, including tornadoes, have significantly increased in skill. Average lead times have increased from essentially zero minutes to around ten minutes, and tornado watches are often issued hours in advance of potential tornadoes. These advances have occurred amid a marked decrease in the number of tornado-related fatalities. To further improve the system, research has begun to understand how people perceive and prepare for risks posed by hazardous weather.
This project examines the tornado risk perception of survey respondents in central Oklahoma and how it relates to their experience with particular tornadoes. Previous analysis of the survey responses revealed that the experience of intense (magnitude of at least (E)F3) and recent (within the past 10 years) tornadoes produced a positive effect on respondents’ risk perception, and the experience of tornadoes that were weak ((E)F2 or less), close, and recent actually decreased respondents’ risk perception. While that research revealed the potential importance of tornado intensity, it did not explain why intensity was important. Our research builds on this prior research by examining the potential for related factors, such as fatalities, to drive public concern about tornado risk. All of the fatal tornadoes in central Oklahoma from the time period examined (1996 through 2016) were magnitude 3 or greater, allowing for a deeper consideration of how severity came to be an important driver. We also explored potential impacts on risk perception due to respondents’ proximity to particularly memorable tornadoes. The findings from this project may provide insights into improving hazardous weather communications, in particular, for weather communicators like broadcasters to understand how their audiences may feel about future risk after tornado events occur in the area.