Thursday, 16 January 2020: 4:15 PM
104B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Future heat stress under six future global warming (ΔTGW) scenarios in an Asian megacity (Osaka) is estimated using a regional climate model with an urban canopy and air-conditioning (AC). An urban heat 'stress' island is projected in all six scenarios (ΔTGW = +0.5 to +3.0 ºC in 0.5 ºC steps; based on IPCC RCP8.5). Under ΔTGW = +3.0 ºC conditions, people outdoors experience 'extreme heat stress', which could result in dangerously high increases in human body core temperature. AC-induced feedback increases heat stress roughly linearly as ΔTGW increase, reaching 0.6 ºC (or 12% of heat stress increase). As this increase is similar to current heat island mitigation techniques, this feedback needs to be considered in urban climate projections, especially where AC use is large.
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