Prediction of the Charlotte (North Carolina) Urban Heat Island—Preliminary Results

The urban heat island (UHI) of Charlotte (North Carolina) – a rapidly-expanding subtropical city – was studied through statistical analysis and short-term predictive modeling. Our study used hourly surface observations taken from 12 weather and air-quality stations over a 5-year period. One station was identified as the least urban and used as the rural reference. Two stations were deemed the most urban and were used for UHI analysis and model testing. Observations from the two urban stations were combined to account for dissimilar parameters observed by each station.

Previous work has shown that the daily UHI maximum (4-10 K) often occurs during nocturnal hours when optimal weather conditions are present. This study examines whether such nocturnal UHI maximum can be predicted from daytime weather parameters observed 6-12 hours prior. The optimal daytime predictors were selected based on maximum correlations between individual daytime parameters and a nocturnal UHI index (mean between 21-23 LST). Using the optimal weather parameters, numerous statistical models (e.g., generalized linear regression, bootstrap random forests, etc.) will be fit and compared to emphasize the effectiveness of each model type at predicting the nocturnal UHI magnitude.