Developing a Heat Extreme Severity Index to Assess the Vulnerabilities of the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area

Based on data analyzed from death certificates by the CDC, an amount of 8,081 deaths from extreme heat exposure were recorded in the United States from 1999-2010. Within these years, from 2003-2008, Harris County, Texas had the second highest number of heat-related deaths in Texas, with a total of 41 deaths, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. For a highly developed urban area with substantial infrastructure, the number of deaths recorded in this time period is alarming, especially when compared to a rural region with much less developed urban sprawl such as Dimmit County, Texas, which had the highest number of deaths at 47. Using RCP4.5 climate projections, the goal of this research is to analyze and index the resilience and acclimatization capabilities of the sub-regions within the 9 counties that define the Houston metropolitan area. Based off of a combination of GIST mapping, climate modeling, and public health projections, this research will determine the necessary mitigation policies to reduce the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths. Communities will be assessed by a number of variables, including socioeconomic status, infrastructure, and the overall history of heat-related illnesses and deaths within the community. Each variable will be given a weighted value that will quantify the data, that when combined will give an accurate projection of a community’s adaptability to future heat extremes. By mapping the combination of these factors, this research will be able to effectively categorize the communities in the Houston metropolitan area that will have a higher chance of adapting versus the communities that are more vulnerable due to a lack of resources necessary to mitigate heat extremes. This analysis will provide policymakers with the necessary tools to proactively address public health issues that will have other impacts on individual communities such as population growth, economic stability, and infrastructure.